psv88

2 hours ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

Despite all of the warmth, I don't think NYC has had a record high temperature. Daily highs haven't been that impressive despite the consistent warmth and high dews.

Huh? Record highs were falling all over the place last month. 

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

 

That GFS "blast" will quickly turn into a brief return to normal. 

Yep. It's so bad people have a low of 55 and think its below normal

35 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

This has been the pattern with every GFS run this fall. BN air comes blasting in between 240 and 280 on virtually every run, but never comes any closer than 240.

 

That being said, the OP GFS, FV3 and GEFS have all been consistent over the past few days with a real cooldown starting on Sunday the 12th. If that can hold up over the next few days I'll start getting my hopes up.

68/50 is normal for this time of year, by the 12 it is 64/47. A step down is natural.

33 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The bottom falls out on the 12z GFS around mid-month with highs possibly not even reaching 50 degrees in most spots on the 16th and our possible first frost, especially N&W.

Early October was supposed to be cold too. Unless it’s within 5 days it’s fantasy

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Just a brief heavy downpour here with some lighting mostly in the distance.

Yea, the north shore really took it on the chin last night. 1.02" of rain here. Areas out east must have gotten close to 2"

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It just missed to my north with FRG getting a gust to 51 mph. Looks like the first verified Suffolk County tornado during October.

 

I missed the 51 at FRG. That storm really blew up when it hit LI, what an epic storm season, capped with a twister. Best lightning ive seen since 2010. 

51 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

 

 

I closely tracked that storm, it looked really nasty. ISP gusted to 47. 

4 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

Unexpectedly decent winds with this here in Southwest Suffolk...enough to take down some small, healthy tree branches.

Rain and lightning are impressive as well.  Not bad for October 2nd!

Storm is now severe warned. Busy night on the island!

Here we go again. Line blossoming over the island. Pouring and lots of lightning 

Quick 1/2” here, nothing to my immediate west or south. Storms developed overhead and kept sliding east.

Pouring now. Cells just popping overhead 

Northern suffolk is getting clobbered. Look at that storm Jesus. Will be some bad damage out there

5 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Perhaps our recent run of very snowy and cold winters is coming to an end

Doubt it. Winters have not really been cold. Last winter was about average or slightly above, with above average snowfall. 

I see no reason why snowy winters wont continue, especially east of the city. Warm SST are causing these snowstorms to just dump snow on the island. 

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

would be great to see 2 weeks of mainly dry sunny weather....

i want a nice hard early freeze, kill all the bugs and ragweed, and then roast till turkey day. 

2 hours ago, Cfa said:

The wetter west / drier east pattern has been persistent, and we’re not even that far apart from each other.

1.82 today, 9.26" for the month. Last 2 events we have done well. 

12 minutes ago, Cfa said:

1.01” here. 6.79” for the month so far, wettest month this year.

1.6” here, brings me to 9” for September...

Heavy rain and thunder. Just short of 4” over the past two days. 

3.36” final here in western Suffolk 

2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That’s where the cheap or undelveloped land was located for reason. 

Things look to be calming down now in the city. SWCT must have some serious flooding now with a large area 5”+

Western Suffolk is in bad shape. 3-4” of rain in 2 hours. The road in front of my office is 2-3 feet of water with cars getting stuck. 

7 minutes ago, Cfa said:

2.06” and counting, rates over 3” per hour.

This is the most rain I’ve received in a single day since the 13 inch event in August 2014, which I didn’t even have a rain gauge for. This is also my first time passing the 2 inch mark with a rain gauge of any kind, it only took 4 years, how pathetic.

3.14" and still pouring, crazy flooding. 

Warned.

Flash Flood Warning

Flash Flood Warning
NYC103-260000-
/O.NEW.KOKX.FF.W.0046.180925T2235Z-180926T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service New York NY
635 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2018

The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Western Suffolk County in southeastern New York...

* Until 800 PM EDT.

* At 635 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain across the warned
  area. Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Islip, Brentwood, Commack, Huntington Station, Centereach, Deer
  Park, Lindenhurst, Hauppauge, Ronkonkoma, Huntington, Stony Brook,
  Babylon, Port Jefferson, Northport and Holbrook.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as
well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
If you are in the warned area move to higher ground immediately.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property.

&&

LAT...LON 4094 7347 4091 7341 4095 7338 4091 7322
      4094 7316 4097 7316 4097 7304 4071 7307
      4069 7315 4070 7323 4066 7336 4065 7337
      4065 7321 4067 7321 4067 7308 4066 7308
      4060 7342

$$

MALOIT

Absolutely smoked here, 2.36" and crushing, everything is flooded.

Wow, crazy rains, up to 1.35"

Pouring, 0.70 for the day

0.42, almost a non-event