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weatherextreme

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Posts posted by weatherextreme

  1. 36 minutes ago, Quincy said:

    SPC has upgraded parts of Kansas and Oklahoma to an Enhanced Risk tomorrow. This includes a significant tornado delineation from south-central Kansas into central Oklahoma.

    day2otlk_1730.gif

    The greatest risk for scattered to widespread severe thunderstorms appears to be across the western half of Kansas. A more isolated risk is anticipated farther south, but any storms that can initiate could be quite intense. Particularly across the western half of Oklahoma. 
     

    Seems to be plenty of these this season that escalate pretty quickly over a 1-2 day period.  

  2. 637 PM CDT Sat May 6 2023
    
    ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR
    NORTHWESTERN BROWN COUNTY...
    
    At 637 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
    was located over Byrds, moving northeast at 10 mph.
    
    HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail.
    
    SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.
    
    IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
             shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
             to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
             likely.
    
    This dangerous storm will be near...
      Byrds around 640 PM CDT.
      May around 715 PM CDT.
  3. MD 677 graphic

     

     Concerning...Tornado Watch 185...
    
       Valid 050013Z - 050145Z
    
       The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 185 continues.
    
       SUMMARY...A cluster of supercells should continue eastward for a few
       more hours with a risk for hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes
       towards the eastern edge of WW185.
    
       DISCUSSION...Over the last hour, a cluster of supercells in North TX
       has shown signs of intensification with higher reflectively and
       deeper MESH cores noted from regional radar analysis. Additional
       storm development/clustering has also been observed, suggesting
       low-level jet intensification is ongoing. 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE
       should continue to support robust updrafts toward sunset as storms
       move eastward at around 25 kt.
    
       Current HRRR forecasts and observational trends suggest some upscale
       growth is possible but the storm mode is expected to remain
       primarily supercellular given 40-45 kt of effective shear. Large
       hail will remain possible with these storms given the supercell mode
       and steep mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km. Some increase in
       low-level shear may also support a couple of tornadoes across
       portions of North TX as backed low-level flow increases and the
       low-level jet intensifies. Given that storms are approaching the
       eastern edge of WW185, a new watch or a local extension may be
       needed across portions of north TX and far southern OK in the next
       hour.
  4. image.png.cd62fcab5b4d7eb2eef4a4d65201fc00.png

     

     

    Mesoscale Discussion 0673
       NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
       0143 PM CDT Thu May 04 2023
    
       Areas affected...northwest TX...far southwest OK
    
       Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 
    
       Valid 041843Z - 042045Z
    
       Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
    
       SUMMARY...Convective initiation will probably occur near the
       dryline/outflow intersection prior to 3pm.  A tornado watch is being
       considered for portions of northwest TX and immediately adjacent
       parts of southwest OK.
    
       DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a towering cumulus
       field centered on Garza County, TX near a dryline bulge.  Surface
       analysis indicates a messy placement of boundaries across northwest
       TX and southwest OK.  The aforementioned dryline extends southwest
       from near the Caprock into the Pecos Valley.  An outflow boundary
       extends from the southeast TX Panhandle arching southeast into
       northwest TX to the south of the Red River, while a synoptic warm
       front/composite boundary extends eastward near the Red River. 
       Surface temperatures north of the outflow/warm front are in the 60s
       with 70s nestled in between the warm front and outflow boundary.  To
       the south of the outflow boundary, temperatures have warmed into the
       lower 80s in locations void of denser mid to high-level cloud cover.
        
       Surface dewpoints are in the lower 60s east of the dryline from near
       San Angelo to north of Abilene.  Additional heating will occur as
       the cirrus shield over western north TX shifts east and upwards of
       1500 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast by mid afternoon.  Effective shear will
       support a supercellular mode.  Large to very large hail (diameters 1
       to 2.5 inches) and a tornado are possible with storms that manage to
       mature and optimally interact in the vicinity of the west-east
       oriented low-level boundaries.
    
       ..Smith/Thompson.. 05/04/2023
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