NJwx85
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Everything posted by NJwx85
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The 00z Euro was much more progressive, but it was one run, and the GFS is sticking to its guns.
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The NAVGEM is on board
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It's not a phantom operational run. The ensembles continue to show a brief 1-3 day warm up around the 20th followed by a return to normal or slightly below normal. It's all a matter of how far East the building trough sets up.
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Ignore the guidance at your own peril. That massive warmup, if it does come looks transient.
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The 12z EPS mean looks mainly below normal temperature wise throughout the period. Even though a ridge does try to move East around the 20th it gets mostly shunted Southwest of NYC with a backdoor moving in for places East of the Hudson River.
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The EPS disagrees
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The EPS mean really hits Eastern New England with lots of wet weather days 5-10. About another 1-2" of rain from Hartford North and East.
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It's amazing how each time it appears the ULL is getting ready to move out on the EPS it just keeps reloading. In any event, temperatures look well below normal for at least the next ten days, possibly longer.
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The 12z EPS mean more or less stalls the ULL directly over Central New England as a ridge builds near Hudson Bay around day 6 and attempts to hook up with the building ridge over the Rockies.
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Yeah right now it looks like that might be confined to North of Boston, but if the ULL ends up closer to the mid-Atlantic rather than NYC it could get wetter for sure.
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So much for the Euro backing off the ULL. At 192 hrs the ULL is centered over Albany, after spending almost all weekend and early next week rotating around Southern and Central New England. Lots of self destruct days and below freezing 850mb temps for the entire period. In fact next Tuesday -4 to -8C 850mb temps make it as far South as the Delmarva.
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The GEFS mean keeps a mean trough in the East through almost May 20th. That's not to say that it's going to be well below average temperature wise or rainy the entire period, but it will keep the recent streak of warm anomalies in check.
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Kevin seems to be ignoring the fact that once the first ULL moves away, another one moves in behind it. The 12z GEFS agrees, and not only that, look at the way its been trending.
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Glad we didn't install
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The 18z GFS keeps the ULL around through day 10, ending up in the Gulf of Maine as yet another closed 500mb low enters the TN Valley. The current system almost moves into a 50/50 position, reinforcing the block. Meanwhile another major rain maker cuts across the Deep South with aim on the East coast around mid-month, trying to cut off again. It's almost a nightmare scenario verbatim for warm weather enthusiasts in the Northeast.
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Agreed. And the run to run nuances regarding the different spokes of energy and shortwaves pinwheeling around the upper low certainly lead to a low confidence forecast. Long range guidance is hinting at the possibility of another closed low in nearly the same position around day 10, so I certainly wouldn't be forecasting a ridge to return to the East anytime soon.
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On the 12z EPS mean the ULL finally is absorbed around day 10 with no real signs of a rebound until after May 15th.
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The trend all day has been to slow down the progression of the trough. And by Saturday another strong shortwave is dropping down from Canada to reinforce the ULL. Highly doubt this ends up as optimistic as Kevin is depicting.
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Mt. Tolland JP
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-4 to -8 C 850mb temps to NYC on Monday on the 12z ECMWF.
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But at least people can go to battery park and enjoy themselves. The Hudson has all that park property along the West side highway. From battery park you would have great views from Staten Island, Brooklyn and NJ.
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Why aren't the fireworks near Battery Park instead of the East River where you have so many more obsticales?
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GEFS mean is >1.50"
