hlcater

Yea hard pass on the big NE trough. Not too interested in air straight from Alberta with 0.000001" of QPF over 30 days.

Hiema means winter - apparently. I couldn't latinify "winter" so I had to get google translate out.

Another storm yanked away from us less than 24hrs from the onset. I don’t think this happens more to any other city.

As you saw me say, this solution coupled with the earlier maturation of the system on other models would be great. Some models even get this system going in SC Iowa.

While I am with Hawkeye in that rain to snow sucks, the decent rates on many models will be something to look forward to. Unless we get pixie dust, but I can’t really see that happening as the system looks fairly robust and compact. Typically pixie dust is more of an issue in strung out systems like clippers. There’s probably no correlation at all, it just *seems* to be that way. That and it currently stands as a 2-4” event around here, though the models(aside from the GFS) continue to trend up with this. I’ll call it a massive win if we squeak 4”+ out of this.

Following fantasy intensely is setting yourself up to be let down all the time.

Can never go wrong with the first 2 weeks of June.

That's dicey. If you get a good pattern, it could pay off bigger than it would in late May. But if you get a bad pattern, you're essentially shut out. Though I guess it worked out for you this year. Just a higher risk factor earlier in the month as variability is far higher.

If this tendency to pop a ridge in the east could persist through May, that would be fantastic.

Lots of cold sector precip on that run as well. Over half of it is wasted as rain down here though. If cold air came in faster, it would be a legitimate storm.

I’m not really liking where I sit. The trend towards a more phased system almost certainly means it cuts NW of even us.

Models seem to be trending towards a more phased solution with the NYE piece of energy. Thus the trend further NW over the past few runs makes sense because of this. The FV3 even has some 8-10” totals, but it is by far the strongest solution.

It won't go north, at least further north than the system on the 27th. That much can already be reasonably assumed. What needs to be watched is how strong the high in the northern plains is. Too strong and the system will end up suppressed and no one around here would see too much. Subsequently, models that have a low and not much of a high over MB/SK/ND/SD have a stronger system out of the SW. A wound up system is certainly in the cards, but we need to see how the initial storm on the 27th behaves before even seriously mentioning how the second one will. EDIT: I don't really like/believe in the way the ECMWF handles the energy in the SW, preferring to back it away over Baja California and cut it off. Screams bias.

I hope so and I remain fairly optimistic about it. MJO looks to head towards phase 7/8 toward or just after new years. Then there's the SSW, but that probably won't have any effects until mid month. We've had pretty atrocious luck with Decembers recently.

NAM got rid of the snow tomorrow night here. The theme of suckage at my location continues. It just never works out it seems like. At this rate that 1-2" would've felt like a significant winter storm.

In my experience the NAM tends to be pretty decent with these low amplitude, marginal temp events.

Absolute monstrous trough. When was the last time there was a 120kt jet core at/below the 25th parallel?

Yea all models have that little system. I’m intrigued soley due to the calendar date. The lord FV3 actually picked up on it first.

Absolutely is

The FV3 has been *very* snowy over the past several runs, but A ) it's the entire run and the majority of snow falls after FH200 and B ) its the FV3 and it has yet to prove itself to me, especially with its big letdown that was the early season blizzard. Not expecting that to come to fruition but I'll be a happy camper if it does.

If we were gonna lose a month in a weak Nino it was going to be December. I'm bummed but I don't see a reason to give up yet as rest of the winter holds potential, especially with that SSW.

The guy who wrote that AFD frequents this board. @RCNYILWX or Ricky Castro. He mentioned some similar thoughts a few days ago as well.

It might just be me, but there seem to be quite a few similarities from where we are now to the winter of 14-15. Especially in the Pacific.

You can bet its back