Blue_Ridge_Escarpment

If you’re along the eastern escarpment from sparta to black mountain, short range guidance is indicating some freezing rain possible tomorrow morning. 
 

9 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

Still snowing up here in Wv…. Can someone explain NW Flow? It’s been moderate snow for hours now but NOTHING on radar I’d say about another 1-2” today after 2” or so overnight 

Lower than the radar beam. I’ve picked up quite a bit of accumulation here in NC before when the radar never showed anything. 

Flakes flying here this morning. 31 degrees and dropping. 

HRRR drops 6 inches in some NC foothill locations. 

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I’ve been thinking this all season. It’s done that literally every storm this year. Usually way too amped at long range with every low but the opposite this year

Ever since it’s “upgrade” it’s had a dry bias for sure. 

It’s pretty remarkable to see the 180 the NAM has taken from previous years. Use to be way overdone with qpf, now has to play catch-up and increase qpf up to go time with each storm.

@wncsnow

you ok with this?

Just now, wncsnow said:

If this was only correct..

Looks like GFS to me 

Just now, CaryWx said:

GFS was beginning to build a Gilligan raft and sail away on the 12z I thought

NAM came in and blocked the passage out. 

GFS getting some company on that island 

Good NAM run. 

06Z Euro trended much better especially at the 500 level. 

1 minute ago, jlewis1111 said:

sure is. Like I said where does he see him getting much. Euro had basically squat and the nam

Operational run of GFS below. 
 

7 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said:

where do you see you getting much?

That’s the ensemble you posted 

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

yay?

Definitely better than 0Z. Trends are what matter right now versus surface output 

5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Yall check out the cmc... at hour 96 it looks pretty good... at hr 102, it goes poof loll

Yeah that’s wrong. Very much improved through 96. Don’t buy the poof at all. 

Colder GFS run for sure. 

1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

Yeah, I was just going to mention. Seems really far south with the energy

Also popping a surface low in the Gulf. 

Wish we could have seen the RGEM go out further than 84. Looked really nice. 

Wow didn’t expect this tonight. 31 and freezing rain…

NAM and GFS at hour 84 look virtually lock step at H5. Euro meanwhile is smoking a cigarette somewhere. 

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

Euro is a swing and a miss, gives a little snow for far eastern sections 

Weaker southern energy. That’s it. 

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

UK is coming around

That’s a good sign. Much colder run. 

1 minute ago, JoshM said:

Get those generators ready

Yep. Long duration event with temps in mid 20s and a meso high popping in VA to reinforce the cold surface air, ballgame. 

Mid 20s here for the duration of the event. Not good if you enjoy your lights being on.