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PowellVolz

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Posts posted by PowellVolz

  1. Vols are still in it! Sweet 16. One of my brackets is doing well, but it requires Tennessee to the Final Four. The others are bust.

    In other news, the Central/West and Ohio Valley both lack total eclipse threads for April 8. What a pity! New England has a thread, but I sure hope it's clear much closer.
    We had a thread going two years before August 2017. Who started it? Thank you! Search is acting up now. Tennessee Valley remains the best Region!
    505536357_bracketmeme.jpg.3c86ab5201063133a40f737dfb301688.jpg


    Not because I’m a fan but I think Tennessee is a terrible matchup for Creighton. Won’t be the first time I’m wrong but what Tenn does well on offense and defense is not what Creighton wants to see. That being said, Tenn can’t shoot as bad as they have the last several games and win. Below 40% in 4 of the last 5 will not beat Creighton. One thing that give me hope is the Texas game was our crap the bed game we have lost every tournament but this time we were good enough to win. Creighton plays solid team defense but everyone of their losses, the other team had a player they couldn’t guard one on one. Creighton is gonna have a hard time with DK.


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  2. SPC states the predictability is too low at this point. We shall see what happens. 
    On a separate note, if you would have asked me one month ago March would finish 4-5° above normal with only a handful of statewide reports (3/14/24 was our only semi-active day), I would have cited nonsense. A remarkably quiet month!
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    Return flow off the GOM has been closed for business. I don’t know all the reasons for that, I just haven’t went looking for why but east of the Mississippi River has absolutely dodged some bullets. The April 1st, 2nd system doesn’t look like return flow will be an issue, especially on Tuesday. If we get a phase over the mid west this could be a high end event. Gonna be pushing 80 in Knoxville with DP’s in the mid 60’s but it’s hard to tell the depth and quality of GOM return flow.


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  3. Hi everyone, apologies if I am doing this wrong, you all seem like you know a lot about weather and I really would like some information/knowledge from folks that understand this stuff really well!
     
    My partner and I are planning a camping trip to Mammoth Cave Nat'l Park next week (it's spring break in Chicago), and I've been paying close attention to the NWS out of Louisville. Unfortunately it looks like rain is in the forecast for next week, which is not a great addition to a camping trip. I know that more than five days out forecasts can be inaccurate, but I have been paying attention to the forecast discussion on their site as well. I don't understand all of the technical things they are talking about, but I've figured out that there is some sort of weather system that is forecast to push through the upper South/lower Midwest next week that will bring rain with it. With that in mind I have a few questions that I hope you guys can help explain for me:
    1.) Is this forecast just saying that there is a higher probability of rain, or is it saying that it will rain and it's really just a question of how much?
    2.) If it is going to rain next week, will it be a lot, or will it just be raining off an on, or for parts of the day(s)?
    3.) Is this a weather system that will impact a large area? I am thinking if we're certain it won't be good weather in Mammoth Cave, KY we might pick a different national recreation area or state park (such as Mark Twain National Forest, or Hoosier National Forest) instead.
     
    Thank you all so much for your time, talent and knowledge, and if this post doesn't belong here, please let me know and I'll gladly delete it.

    Like you said we are still several days out from the potential weather maker for the first of next week. IMO I would continue to follow the local NWS for the area in question like you are doing. However I’d say there’s a high likelihood of a impactful system from the mid west to the east coast from Sunday through Tuesday. Really hard to tell right now if this is gonna be a widespread rain event or a quick hitter squall line. By Friday afternoon the NWS should have a better handle on the local impacts for your location. We have some very talented weather enthusiasts on this site so check back in on Friday afternoon if you still need some help.


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  4. Have to imagine this has been one the warmest March starts on record, are we averging plus 7-10 on temps for March thus far?

    I’m sure it’s up there. I don’t keep up with the numbers that much but March 2016 was very warm. I play a lot of golf and I remember Bermuda was coming in towards the end of March 16’ and it was wiped out the week before/of Easter that year. We had mid to upper 20’s for about a week that year. A friend of mine owns a landscaping business and I help him out some when he gets backed up. That year we replaced over 120 crept myrtles at his Ihop stores. We learned a hard lesson that year. Do not trim back crept myrtle shrubs until the first of March.


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  5. One cold night shouldn’t be a major issue and let’s not forget that lows in the 20’s this time of year once or twice is almost expected. For the most part everything that’s blooming now or budding can handle a night or two of temps below 29 degrees. Temps below 29 degrees for more than a couple of nights is when I get concerned. I also think the mods could be a couple of degrees too cold considering there will be a 10-25 mph wind blowing at times.


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    Just noticed redbuds are 50-75% in depending on tree location. I’m sure this isn’t an anomaly but this does seem quite early by a few weeks or so.


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  6. Disappointing there will be a hard freeze Monday night.

    One cold night shouldn’t be a major issue and let’s not forget that lows in the 20’s this time of year once or twice is almost expected. For the most part everything that’s blooming now or budding can handle a night or two of temps below 29 degrees. Temps below 29 degrees for more than a couple of nights is when I get concerned. I also think the mods could be a couple of degrees too cold considering there will be a 10-25 mph wind blowing at times.


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  7. Interesting… yesterday after church I started clearing out two landscaping beds. I’m redoing them and reshaping the beds itself. Underneath a Japanese Maple I’ve got some “big blue” which is basically miniature monkey grass that spreads together and makes a nice thick ground cover that gets purple blossoms in late summer. So I was transplanting that yesterday and ran across two white(ish) gray baby snakes alive and kicking hiding in the 6” grass. I’m not a snake expert by no means but this seems a little early in the season. Unfortunately one of them I chopped in half but the other I relocated to a creek that’s 150 yards away. Thoughts?


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  8. I'm still surprised more people didnt die in the Nashviile (downtown) from the F3 .The Kissimmee,Fl tornado (F3)was the worse in late Feb but the Birmingham F5 lifted 2 miles from downtown,that would have been catastrophic if it hit downtown.The chart is from fatalities in 1998
    Storm-Prediction-Center-Storm-Reports.png.64bf51eb29b088a3656966f6f2031c9c.png

    I’m just about positive we had damage in Powell and Halls from a tornado during this event.


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  9. We really want to hang on to cooler weather for as long as possible w/ La Nina lurking.  It has been my experience that if things warm-up during spring(during La Nina years), the summers are long and brutal.  I don't see a long period of misery....more like cool shots, rain at times, and a strong cold shot or two.  There is certainly a scenario there where it gets quite cold as ensembles being cold at this range can sometimes translate to much colder.   Right now the cycle is....warm followed by step down to seasonal followed by step down to bitterly cold.  Do we repeat that cycle one more time?  IDK.  But, I do think we are seeing a legitimate pattern change coming up w/ more troughing at least making its way eastward.  The Mountain West is piling up snow, and they are going to need every bit of that water content.


    My memory is terrible but spring 2016, do you remember the overall pattern? We had a very warm March. So warm that I remember golf courses were almost green by the end of March and then we had about a week long freeze right around Easter that wiped out a lot of Azaleas, crept myrtles and fruiting trees. Hoping we don’t repeat that spring. (If my memory has the right year but I’m almost positive it was the same year as the GSM park fires).


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  10. Just reading D'Aleo over at WxBell who I respect a lot....he has a graph of one area of the Pac where the El Nino just collapsed during mid January (100-180?).  I have not looked to see where that is, but I do wonder if the collapse of the El Nino has had a significant effect on the second half of winter.  We kind of got the worst of both worlds - first half Nino(typically warm) and second half Nada(typically warm!).  We managed about ten days of weak El Nino...and many scored.  
    Also, JB think the PDO is set to flip positive next winter.  I see no evidence of that but haven't looked at recent metrics for it.  Anyone have a forecast for it?


    Seems like a PDO flip would be good for us?


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  11. A quick minute from SWAD 2024. James is right. More TV mets should consider being more familiar with specific landmarks and reference points when doing storm coverage. 
     

    I have friends that have lived in the same area for 45+ years and when I send them a weather map, I can tell they are confused with where they are looking at. Mind blowing to me. My son is 9 and he can point out to where we live without cities on it.


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  12.  Today’s Euro Weeklies are warmer for 3/11-18 and not as cold 3/18-25 vs yesterday’s run. :rolleyes:

    I’m kinda in spring mode now. Seems like a warm February tends to lead a delayed spring. I’m sure we will have a couple cool days down the road but I hate extended cool periods in April.


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