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janetjanet998

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  1. There are many people without power over MS and AL still and a EOC tower got blown down too..no way to warn..I'm sure some tornado sirens may be out too stroms along the mS river are on a confluent zone where SW winds hit SE winds ....behind it still warm and humid ahaed of the front...so as usual a line may form along the front with tornadic supoercells well in advance
  2. some more suspect storm reports from this morning for BHM metro' 0507 AM TSTM WND DMG BERRY 33.66N 87.61W 04/27/2011 FAYETTE AL EMERGENCY MNGR NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AND STRUCTURE DAMAGE INCLUDING THE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL. 30 TO 40 STRUCTURES DAMAGE. MAINLY ROOF DAMAGE. AT LEASE 2 MOBILE HOMES DESTROYED. NO INJURIES. 0525 AM TSTM WND DMG COALING 33.16N 87.34W 04/27/2011 TUSCALOOSA AL EMERGENCY MNGR NUMEROUS TREES AND STRUCTURES DAMAGED IN THE COALING AREA. AT LEAST 30 HOME DAMAGED, 15 OF THOSE HEAVILY DAMAGED AND POTENTIALLY UNINHABITABLE. SEVERAL INJURIES BUT NO DETAILS AT THIS TIME.
  3. Huntsville metro BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 1141 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL LIMESTONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA... CENTRAL MADISON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA... WEST CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA... * UNTIL 1215 PM CDT * AT 1141 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A CONFIRMED TORNADO NEAR CAPSHAW...OR ABOUT 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF MADISON...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. * LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE... HUNTSVILLE. NORMAL.
  4. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 1130 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN LIMESTONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA... SOUTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA... NORTHERN MORGAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA... * UNTIL NOON CDT * AT 1130 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR DECATUR...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. ALC083-089-103-271700- /O.CON.KHUN.TO.W.0056.000000T0000Z-110427T1700Z/ MORGAN AL-LIMESTONE AL-MADISON AL- 1137 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN MADISON...SOUTHEASTERN LIMESTONE AND NORTHEASTERN MORGAN COUNTIES... AT 1137 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BELLE MINA...OR ABOUT 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF DECATUR...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.
  5. yikes ..THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF MS...AL TN AND GA...... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF MS...AL...TN...KY...WRN VA...WRN NC...WRN SC...NRN GA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-MS VALLEY...CNTRL TO ERN GULF COAST STATES...TN VALLEY...OH VALLEY...CNTRL TO SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS...CAROLINAS...MID-ATLANTIC AND NERN STATES... ...MAJOR TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS EXTENDING NWD INTO THE SRN OH VALLEY... ..TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AND SRN OH VALLEY A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE OZARKS TODAY AS A POWERFUL MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND NOSES INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. AT THE SFC... A LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NNEWD ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND THIS AIR MASS SHOULD MOVE NEWD INTO THE MODERATE AND HIGH RISK AREAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS ALONG WITH STRONG SHEAR PROFILES IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SYSTEM IS VERY ORGANIZED AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR TORNADO OUTBREAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES AND TN VALLEY EXTENDING NWD INTO THE SRN OH VALLEY. CONCERNING THE CURRENT SETUP...A LARGE MCS IS ONGOING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS TIMED TO MOVE INTO ERN TN AND NW GA BY 21Z. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A RESERVOIR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM LA EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SCNTRL MS WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. THIS MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE TRANSPORTED NEWD INTO THE HIGH RISK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MCS EXITS THE REGION TO THE EAST. AS THE THERMODYNAMIC SETUP IMPROVES...THE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO RAPIDLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS THE NOSE OF A 80 TO 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS EWD ACROSS THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL CREATE LARGE LOOPING HODOGRAPHS FROM ERN MS AND NCNTRL AL NWD INTO SRN TN. 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES IN THE 450 TO 600 M2/S2 RANGE SHOULD BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING FROM COLUMBUS MS EWD TO BIRMINGHAM AND HUNTSVILLE AL. THIS AREA IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE ONGOING MCS WHERE DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE MOST FAVORABLE. AS SUPERCELLS INITIATE IN ERN MS AND TRACK ENEWD ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A TORNADO OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED. A FEW LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES AND POSSIBLY A VIOLENT TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS EARLY THIS EVENING. HAVE ADDED A 45 PERCENT SIG-TOR AREA WHERE CONFIDENCE IS THE HIGHEST CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACK TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP. FURTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS MIDDLE TN IN WCNTRL KY...THE ONGOING MCS IS HAMPERING DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...AS THE MID-LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...THE MODERATE INSTABILITY IN NRN LA AND SRN AR IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT QUICKLY NNEWD ACROSS WCNTRL TN AND WCNTRL KY BETWEEN THE EXITING MCS AND A CLUSTER OF STORMS IN NW AR AND SRN MO. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE MOIST AXIS TO BE LOCATED FROM WEST OF NASHVILLE NEWD TO NEAR LOUISVILLE WHERE NUMEROUS SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND MID-LEVEL JET ARE FORECAST TO BE JUXTAPOSED ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR SUGGESTING SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES EVEN IF DESTABILIZATION IS NOT AS GREAT AS IS EXPECTED. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A BROKEN LINE OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA AND TRACK EWD ACROSS CNTRL KY AND MIDDLE TN EARLY THIS EVENING. THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND A FEW LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES MAY OCCUR. THE MODERATE RISK AREA HAS BEEN EXTENDED WWD ACROSS PARTS OF MIDDLE TN AND CNTRL KY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP. AS A BROKEN LINE OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS MOVES EWD ACROSS THE HIGH AND MODERATE RISK AREAS THIS EVENING...A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY OCCUR AS THE LINE CONGEALS AND BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS DEVELOP. AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD EXIST AS FAR EAST AS WRN VA ...WRN NC AND WRN SC DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS WHEN A LARGE MCS MOVES INTO THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS. THE TORNADO THREAT MAY SHIFT SWD LATE THIS EVENING INTO NRN GA WHERE THE STORMS MAY TEND TO REMAIN DISCRETE. ..CNTRL TO NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS/CAROLINAS/ERN GULF COAST STATES THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL STATES WILL MOVE INTO THE MS VALLEY THIS EVENING AS A POWERFUL MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS NEWD OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS AND ERN GREAT LAKES WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT. ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE JET AXIS...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED FROM ERN OH EXTENDING SWD INTO FAR WRN SC AROUND 06Z. THIS LINE SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS NY...PA...VA...NC AND SC WHERE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD EXIST DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW. AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD EXIST ACROSS VA AND WRN CAROLINAS WHERE THE MODELS DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY AFTER 06Z. ..BROYLES/GARNER.. 04/27/2011
  6. i wonder what they need to get a red becuase these are the best parameters i have ever seen? I see they epanded the nMOD risk more north too with hatched tornado
  7. I doubt if those tornadoes were rated today they would be rated that high(at least some of them since they tend to be conservative these days) anyway we can save that debate for a slow winter day. Also no outbreak is the same. This one will cover from TX all the way into GA maybe and north into TN..with scattered reports likley in the OH valley and Northeast for those of you who missed it go back and look at the radar at 2-3am over MS last night......wow
  8. if you say so already dozens of tornadoes last evening and overnight..mulitple fatalities over 50 prelims now but many more will be added too the outbreak continues
  9. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1051 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011 ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON... UPDATE NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH OUR THINKING AND THE OVERALL EVOLUTION FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...THE DETAILS ARE BECOMING A BIT MORE CLEAR BASED OFF LATEST HI-RES MODELS AND TRENDS WITH RADAR AND SAT IMAGERY. A VOLATILE SITUATION IS DEVELOPING WHICH LOOKS TO SUPPORT SEVERAL SUPERCELL STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA FROM LATE MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS OFF THE CHART AND AT LEVELS RARELY SEEN. EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY 600-900 M2/S2 AND FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY HIGH AND WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE 300-600 M2/S2 RANGE IF NOT HIGHER. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE HIGH AS WELL AND EXCEED 2500-3000 J/KG IF DEWPTS HOLD AROUND 70. FORCING WILL BE INTENSE AND THERE WILL BE SOME CAPPING MOVING IN FROM THE SW. THIS SHOULD KEEP CELLS DISCRETE AND SUPERCELLULAR TODAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PUSHING 80 KTS AND COULD GET HIGHER AS A 100KT MID LEVEL JET CORE PUNCHES INTO THE REGION IN A FEW HRS. EVOLVING SUPERCELLS IS THIS EXTREME ENVIRONMENT IS BAD NEWS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL STRONG TORNADOES WITH A VIOLENT TORNADO POSSIBLE. CURRENT SIGTOR PARAMETERS (10-12) AND 0-1KM EHI VALUES (9-12) ARE EXTREME ABOUT AS CLASSIC AND SIGNIFICANT OF A SETUP AS THEY COME. STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY NE IN THE FAST DEEP LAYER FLOW AND STORMS SHOULD AVG 50-60 MPH. THIS SETUP WILL ALSO SUPPORT LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS AND LONG TRACKED TORNADOES. I CAN'T STRESS ENOUGH HOW DANGEROUS A SITUATION THIS APPEARS. OUR SAVING GRACE WOULD BE IF STORM MODE SOME HOW BECOMES MORE LINEAR...BUT ALL HI-RES GUID SUPPORTS DISCRETE CELLS. IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DMG WINDS OF 60-80 MPH.
  10. 1037 AM TORNADO 6 S LAWRENCEBURG 35.16N 87.34W 04/27/2011 LAWRENCE TN TRAINED SPOTTER TORNADO WITH DEBRIS WITNESSED BY MULTIPLE SPOTTERS IN LEOMA
  11. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0620 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1045 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN LA AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS INTO AL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 271545Z - 271715Z A LONG LEAD-TIME/LONG DURATION PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS /PDS/ TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON...MOST CERTAIN ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS. VISIBLE SATELLITE/SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IMPLY RELATIVELY QUICK AIRMASS RECOVERY/DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING FROM LA INTO MS/AL THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING. THIS IS THE CASE NOT ONLY FOR IN THE VICINITY OF EARLY MORNING WEST-EAST OUTFLOW ACROSS MS/AL...WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS HAVE EACH INCREASED 8-12F OVER THE PAST 2 HR...BUT ALSO IN THE WAKE OF AN APPARENT WAVE-LIKE FEATURE SPREADING EASTWARD CROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS/LA AS A CU FIELD OTHERWISE CONTINUES TO INCREASE/MATURE ACROSS NORTHEAST LA. AIDED BY STRONG AMPLIFICATION/INTENSIFICATION OF AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ASSOCIATED JET STREAK LATER TODAY...A VOLATILE SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE INITIATION OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON IS WELL SUPPORTED BY EXPERIMENTAL GUIDANCE SUCH AS SEVERAL RECENT HRRR RUNS AND THE 12Z WRF-NMM. SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE RUC/12Z NAM...ACCENTUATED BY VERY LONG/STRONGLY CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...SUPPORT THE NOTION OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG/POTENTIALLY VIOLENT TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA.
  12. TN TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 1041 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN GILES COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... EAST CENTRAL LAWRENCE COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... SOUTHWESTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... SOUTHEASTERN MAURY COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... * UNTIL 1115 AM CDT * AT 1037 AM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR LAWRENCEBURG. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH.
  13. CU building and scattered convection tryin gto get going over LA now..this could be it
  14. yet another PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 950 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0235 AM TORNADO 5 SSW EUPORA 33.48N 89.31W 04/27/2011 CHOCTAW MS EMERGENCY MNGR *** 1 FATAL, 7 INJ *** UPDATE...EMERGENCY MANAGER CONFIRMS 1 FATALITY IN A CAMPER AT A STATE PARK. EXTENSIVE DAMAGE REPORTED IN THE AREA OF CHOCTAW COUNTY NEAR THE BORDER WITH WEBSTER COUNTY. MANY TREES DOWN ACROSS ROADS AND ON TOPS OF HOUSES. MOBILE HOMES DESTROYED AND SOME HOMES DAMAGED...ESPECIALLY ALONG HEBRON ROAD. AT LEAST 7 INJURIES REPORTED...AND DAMAGE AND INJURY REPORTS STILL COMING IN.
  15. another fatality PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 948 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0654 AM TSTM WND DMG PISGAH 34.68N 85.85W 04/27/2011 JACKSON AL EMERGENCY MNGR REPORTS OF STUCTURAL DAMAGE...NUMEROUS TREES DOWN...AND POWERLINES DOWN ALONG A PATH FROM PISGAH TO FLAT ROCK NEAR CR 120. ONE DEATH OCCURRED IN THE PISGAH AREA. POSSIBLE TORNADO DAMAGE.
  16. 0945 AM TORNADO 5 SE BIRCHWOOD 35.31N 84.93W 04/27/2011 MEIGS TN EMERGENCY MNGR EMA REPORTED POSSIBLE TORNADO TOUCHDOWN ON MT ZION RD NEAR GEORGETOWN...SEVERL HOMES DAMAGED SOME POTENTIALLY DESTROYED.
  17. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 906 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0244 AM TORNADO MATHISTON 33.54N 89.13W 04/27/2011 WEBSTER MS EMERGENCY MNGR *** 2 FATAL, 15 INJ *** UPDATE...EMERGENCY MANAGER CONFIRMS TWO FATALITIES AND ESTIMATES 15 INJURIES WITH THIS STORM IN WEBSTER COUNTY. EXTENSIVE DAMAGE REPORTED IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF WEBSTER COUNTY. WIDESPREAD TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN...HOMES AND BUSINESSES WITH DAMAGE. POSSIBLE TORNADO IN AREA BASED ON RADAR.
  18. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 956 AM EDT WED APR 27 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... MCMINN COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... * UNTIL 1045 AM EDT * AT 950 AM EDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHARLESTON...OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DECATUR. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.
  19. not the main show yet but new watch URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 230 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 810 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 810 AM UNTIL 200 PM CDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. \DISCUSSION...STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN MS THROUGH NRN AL ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH LARGE HODOGRAPHS. AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.
  20. clear pockets in between the complexes over TN and breaks in tghe clouds ahead of the first one expect new development over LA soon and move into central MS then AL
  21. storms over N MS now becoming almost surface based and now TOR warned.. old complex may move into VA/ NC/SC later as airmass destabilzes as they cross the mountains OH valley may have a few tornadoes... then the big show over MS/AL later This is very april 3-4 1974 like in that regard, with possible multiple bands of storms producing tornadoes at the same time new RUC has the best paramters I ever recall seeing even at 20% reduction again we have to add on the stuff from yesterday evening and over night too
  22. ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR NE MS...CENTRAL/NRN AL...NW GA...SE TN... ..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK FROM NRN/CENTRAL MS TO SRN AL...NW GA...MIDDLE/ERN TN...WRN SC...WRN NC...WRN VA...AND ERN KY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE OH VALLEY/APPALACHIANS AND NY... --DANGEROUS TORNADO OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING INTO LATE EVENING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION-- ..SYNOPSIS AN INTENSE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 100 KT 500 MB JET WILL PIVOT EWD FROM TX/OK THIS MORNING TO LOWER MS/TN VALLEY REGION BY THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE NEWD TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP NEWD FROM WRN AR THIS MORNING TO WRN KY/SRN INDIANA BY THIS EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUE NEWD TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT AND REMNANT DRYLINE FEATURE WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG WINDS THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE AND AN INFLUX OF RICH MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A DANGEROUS OUTBREAK OF FAST-MOVING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. ..MS/AL/TN/KY/GA AREA THROUGH TONIGHT THE REMNANTS OF AN INTENSE OVERNIGHT MCS /INCLUDING EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWS/ IS WEAKENING OVER NE AL AND MIDDLE TN AS OF SUNRISE. OTHER ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY TO THE W FROM NE LA INTO SE AR/NRN MS. SOME FORM OF THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WHILE SPREADING ENEWD OVER NRN MS INTO WRN/MIDDLE TN. S OF THIS ACTIVITY AND IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER MS/AL MCS...IT APPEARS THAT THE WARM SECTOR WILL RECOVER QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO CLOUD BREAKS AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW. A RESERVOIR OF 70-72 F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS FROM SRN LA TO SRN AL WILL SPREAD NWD IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING STORMS...BENEATH THE REMNANTS OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME SPREADING EWD FROM TX/LA. SURFACE HEATING WITHIN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL BOOST MLCAPE VALUES TO 2500-4000 J/KG ALONG AND S OF THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND REDUCE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BY ABOUT MIDDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED-NUMEROUS WARM SECTOR SUPERCELLS ALONG CONFLUENCE BANDS E OF THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...CHARACTERIZED BY LONG/CURVED HODOGRAPHS WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 70 KT AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF 300-600 M2/S2 IN THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF SEVERAL HOURS OF DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING STORMS...A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...THE STRONG INSTABILITY...AND INTENSE VERTICAL SHEAR...THE SCENARIO APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR MULTIPLE LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE INTENSE/DAMAGING TORNADOES IN THE HIGH RISK AREA. ..AR NEWD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY TODAY ALONG THE PATH OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE CYCLONE...THERE WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION GIVEN THE IMPACTS OF OVERNIGHT AND ONGOING CONVECTION FARTHER TO THE SE. STILL...ANY CLOUD BREAKS WILL ALLOW DESTABILIZATION BENEATH COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES...IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR. DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CLUSTERS IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW. ..UPPER OH VALLEY TONIGHT THE PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE AND STRONG KINEMATIC PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER OH VALLEY EARLY TONIGHT. THE MAGNITUDE OF WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION GIVEN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ONGOING AND EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES WITH EMBEDDED BOWS AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 04/27/2011
  23. The Tornado outbreak of april 26-27th continures and will likely all day..with rounds of tornadic storms. for those of you just waking up things went nuts over MS last night,, about 70 tornado warnings issued since midnight several supercells formed within the heavy precip field with many confrimed tornadoes..many towns got hit..damage reports still flowing in...injuries reported,,mobile home parks hit one supercell was insane with extreme couplet and hurricane like eye with strong north and south feeder bands with storm motions of 60-70mPH this was at about 3am..not good the tornado count will really rise as many damage reported now listed as wind damage say possible tornado
  24. This April 26-27, 20011 outbreak may have tornadoes then the superoutbreak, but of course if you take the superoutbreak and out in todays world there would likley be closer to 225 tornadoes then 148 There was a 36 hour outbreak that actually had more then the 148 a few years ago..the date escapes me at this moment but that was out over the open plains in this case coming up only luck will keep the death toll out of the dozens a silver lining of all the outbreaks latley is that people may be paying more attention
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