janetjanet998

I doubt if those tornadoes were rated today they would be rated that high(at least some of them since they tend to be conservative these days) anyway we can save that debate for a slow winter day. Also no outbreak is the same. This one will cover from TX all the way into GA maybe and north into TN..with scattered reports likley in the OH valley and Northeast for those of you who missed it go back and look at the radar at 2-3am over MS last night......wow

if you say so already dozens of tornadoes last evening and overnight..mulitple fatalities over 50 prelims now but many more will be added too the outbreak continues

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1051 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011 ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON... UPDATE NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH OUR THINKING AND THE OVERALL EVOLUTION FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...THE DETAILS ARE BECOMING A BIT MORE CLEAR BASED OFF LATEST HI-RES MODELS AND TRENDS WITH RADAR AND SAT IMAGERY. A VOLATILE SITUATION IS DEVELOPING WHICH LOOKS TO SUPPORT SEVERAL SUPERCELL STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA FROM LATE MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS OFF THE CHART AND AT LEVELS RARELY SEEN. EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY 600-900 M2/S2 AND FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY HIGH AND WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE 300-600 M2/S2 RANGE IF NOT HIGHER. INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE HIGH AS WELL AND EXCEED 2500-3000 J/KG IF DEWPTS HOLD AROUND 70. FORCING WILL BE INTENSE AND THERE WILL BE SOME CAPPING MOVING IN FROM THE SW. THIS SHOULD KEEP CELLS DISCRETE AND SUPERCELLULAR TODAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PUSHING 80 KTS AND COULD GET HIGHER AS A 100KT MID LEVEL JET CORE PUNCHES INTO THE REGION IN A FEW HRS. EVOLVING SUPERCELLS IS THIS EXTREME ENVIRONMENT IS BAD NEWS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL STRONG TORNADOES WITH A VIOLENT TORNADO POSSIBLE. CURRENT SIGTOR PARAMETERS (10-12) AND 0-1KM EHI VALUES (9-12) ARE EXTREME ABOUT AS CLASSIC AND SIGNIFICANT OF A SETUP AS THEY COME. STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY NE IN THE FAST DEEP LAYER FLOW AND STORMS SHOULD AVG 50-60 MPH. THIS SETUP WILL ALSO SUPPORT LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS AND LONG TRACKED TORNADOES. I CAN'T STRESS ENOUGH HOW DANGEROUS A SITUATION THIS APPEARS. OUR SAVING GRACE WOULD BE IF STORM MODE SOME HOW BECOMES MORE LINEAR...BUT ALL HI-RES GUID SUPPORTS DISCRETE CELLS. IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DMG WINDS OF 60-80 MPH.

1037 AM TORNADO 6 S LAWRENCEBURG 35.16N 87.34W 04/27/2011 LAWRENCE TN TRAINED SPOTTER TORNADO WITH DEBRIS WITNESSED BY MULTIPLE SPOTTERS IN LEOMA

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0620 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1045 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN LA AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS INTO AL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 271545Z - 271715Z A LONG LEAD-TIME/LONG DURATION PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS /PDS/ TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON...MOST CERTAIN ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS. VISIBLE SATELLITE/SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IMPLY RELATIVELY QUICK AIRMASS RECOVERY/DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING FROM LA INTO MS/AL THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING. THIS IS THE CASE NOT ONLY FOR IN THE VICINITY OF EARLY MORNING WEST-EAST OUTFLOW ACROSS MS/AL...WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS HAVE EACH INCREASED 8-12F OVER THE PAST 2 HR...BUT ALSO IN THE WAKE OF AN APPARENT WAVE-LIKE FEATURE SPREADING EASTWARD CROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS/LA AS A CU FIELD OTHERWISE CONTINUES TO INCREASE/MATURE ACROSS NORTHEAST LA. AIDED BY STRONG AMPLIFICATION/INTENSIFICATION OF AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ASSOCIATED JET STREAK LATER TODAY...A VOLATILE SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE INITIATION OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON IS WELL SUPPORTED BY EXPERIMENTAL GUIDANCE SUCH AS SEVERAL RECENT HRRR RUNS AND THE 12Z WRF-NMM. SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE RUC/12Z NAM...ACCENTUATED BY VERY LONG/STRONGLY CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...SUPPORT THE NOTION OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG/POTENTIALLY VIOLENT TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA.

TN TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 1041 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN GILES COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... EAST CENTRAL LAWRENCE COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... SOUTHWESTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... SOUTHEASTERN MAURY COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... * UNTIL 1115 AM CDT * AT 1037 AM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR LAWRENCEBURG. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH.

CU building and scattered convection tryin gto get going over LA now..this could be it

yet another PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 950 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0235 AM TORNADO 5 SSW EUPORA 33.48N 89.31W 04/27/2011 CHOCTAW MS EMERGENCY MNGR *** 1 FATAL, 7 INJ *** UPDATE...EMERGENCY MANAGER CONFIRMS 1 FATALITY IN A CAMPER AT A STATE PARK. EXTENSIVE DAMAGE REPORTED IN THE AREA OF CHOCTAW COUNTY NEAR THE BORDER WITH WEBSTER COUNTY. MANY TREES DOWN ACROSS ROADS AND ON TOPS OF HOUSES. MOBILE HOMES DESTROYED AND SOME HOMES DAMAGED...ESPECIALLY ALONG HEBRON ROAD. AT LEAST 7 INJURIES REPORTED...AND DAMAGE AND INJURY REPORTS STILL COMING IN.

another fatality PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 948 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0654 AM TSTM WND DMG PISGAH 34.68N 85.85W 04/27/2011 JACKSON AL EMERGENCY MNGR REPORTS OF STUCTURAL DAMAGE...NUMEROUS TREES DOWN...AND POWERLINES DOWN ALONG A PATH FROM PISGAH TO FLAT ROCK NEAR CR 120. ONE DEATH OCCURRED IN THE PISGAH AREA. POSSIBLE TORNADO DAMAGE.

0945 AM TORNADO 5 SE BIRCHWOOD 35.31N 84.93W 04/27/2011 MEIGS TN EMERGENCY MNGR EMA REPORTED POSSIBLE TORNADO TOUCHDOWN ON MT ZION RD NEAR GEORGETOWN...SEVERL HOMES DAMAGED SOME POTENTIALLY DESTROYED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 906 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0244 AM TORNADO MATHISTON 33.54N 89.13W 04/27/2011 WEBSTER MS EMERGENCY MNGR *** 2 FATAL, 15 INJ *** UPDATE...EMERGENCY MANAGER CONFIRMS TWO FATALITIES AND ESTIMATES 15 INJURIES WITH THIS STORM IN WEBSTER COUNTY. EXTENSIVE DAMAGE REPORTED IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF WEBSTER COUNTY. WIDESPREAD TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN...HOMES AND BUSINESSES WITH DAMAGE. POSSIBLE TORNADO IN AREA BASED ON RADAR.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 956 AM EDT WED APR 27 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... MCMINN COUNTY IN EAST TENNESSEE... * UNTIL 1045 AM EDT * AT 950 AM EDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHARLESTON...OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DECATUR. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

not the main show yet but new watch URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 230 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 810 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 810 AM UNTIL 200 PM CDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. \DISCUSSION...STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN MS THROUGH NRN AL ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH LARGE HODOGRAPHS. AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.

clear pockets in between the complexes over TN and breaks in tghe clouds ahead of the first one expect new development over LA soon and move into central MS then AL

storms over N MS now becoming almost surface based and now TOR warned.. old complex may move into VA/ NC/SC later as airmass destabilzes as they cross the mountains OH valley may have a few tornadoes... then the big show over MS/AL later This is very april 3-4 1974 like in that regard, with possible multiple bands of storms producing tornadoes at the same time new RUC has the best paramters I ever recall seeing even at 20% reduction again we have to add on the stuff from yesterday evening and over night too

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR NE MS...CENTRAL/NRN AL...NW GA...SE TN... ..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK FROM NRN/CENTRAL MS TO SRN AL...NW GA...MIDDLE/ERN TN...WRN SC...WRN NC...WRN VA...AND ERN KY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE OH VALLEY/APPALACHIANS AND NY... --DANGEROUS TORNADO OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING INTO LATE EVENING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION-- ..SYNOPSIS AN INTENSE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 100 KT 500 MB JET WILL PIVOT EWD FROM TX/OK THIS MORNING TO LOWER MS/TN VALLEY REGION BY THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE NEWD TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP NEWD FROM WRN AR THIS MORNING TO WRN KY/SRN INDIANA BY THIS EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUE NEWD TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT AND REMNANT DRYLINE FEATURE WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG WINDS THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE AND AN INFLUX OF RICH MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A DANGEROUS OUTBREAK OF FAST-MOVING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. ..MS/AL/TN/KY/GA AREA THROUGH TONIGHT THE REMNANTS OF AN INTENSE OVERNIGHT MCS /INCLUDING EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOWS/ IS WEAKENING OVER NE AL AND MIDDLE TN AS OF SUNRISE. OTHER ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY TO THE W FROM NE LA INTO SE AR/NRN MS. SOME FORM OF THIS ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WHILE SPREADING ENEWD OVER NRN MS INTO WRN/MIDDLE TN. S OF THIS ACTIVITY AND IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER MS/AL MCS...IT APPEARS THAT THE WARM SECTOR WILL RECOVER QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO CLOUD BREAKS AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW. A RESERVOIR OF 70-72 F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS FROM SRN LA TO SRN AL WILL SPREAD NWD IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING STORMS...BENEATH THE REMNANTS OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME SPREADING EWD FROM TX/LA. SURFACE HEATING WITHIN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL BOOST MLCAPE VALUES TO 2500-4000 J/KG ALONG AND S OF THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND REDUCE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BY ABOUT MIDDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED-NUMEROUS WARM SECTOR SUPERCELLS ALONG CONFLUENCE BANDS E OF THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...CHARACTERIZED BY LONG/CURVED HODOGRAPHS WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 70 KT AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF 300-600 M2/S2 IN THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF SEVERAL HOURS OF DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING STORMS...A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...THE STRONG INSTABILITY...AND INTENSE VERTICAL SHEAR...THE SCENARIO APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR MULTIPLE LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE INTENSE/DAMAGING TORNADOES IN THE HIGH RISK AREA. ..AR NEWD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY TODAY ALONG THE PATH OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE CYCLONE...THERE WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION GIVEN THE IMPACTS OF OVERNIGHT AND ONGOING CONVECTION FARTHER TO THE SE. STILL...ANY CLOUD BREAKS WILL ALLOW DESTABILIZATION BENEATH COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES...IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR. DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CLUSTERS IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW. ..UPPER OH VALLEY TONIGHT THE PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE AND STRONG KINEMATIC PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER OH VALLEY EARLY TONIGHT. THE MAGNITUDE OF WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION GIVEN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ONGOING AND EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES WITH EMBEDDED BOWS AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 04/27/2011

The Tornado outbreak of april 26-27th continures and will likely all day..with rounds of tornadic storms. for those of you just waking up things went nuts over MS last night,, about 70 tornado warnings issued since midnight several supercells formed within the heavy precip field with many confrimed tornadoes..many towns got hit..damage reports still flowing in...injuries reported,,mobile home parks hit one supercell was insane with extreme couplet and hurricane like eye with strong north and south feeder bands with storm motions of 60-70mPH this was at about 3am..not good the tornado count will really rise as many damage reported now listed as wind damage say possible tornado

This April 26-27, 20011 outbreak may have tornadoes then the superoutbreak, but of course if you take the superoutbreak and out in todays world there would likley be closer to 225 tornadoes then 148 There was a 36 hour outbreak that actually had more then the 148 a few years ago..the date escapes me at this moment but that was out over the open plains in this case coming up only luck will keep the death toll out of the dozens a silver lining of all the outbreaks latley is that people may be paying more attention

freak.. north system has 1000 CApE to work with..south 3000

I just started a new thread for monday as you were typing that.. I don';t care..delete it if you wish http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/17617-monday-april-25th/

12z NAM coming a little more NW for Mondays event..but cloudy/rainy warm sector..still cape around 1500 looks decent perhaps keep this thread for monday..but then spin one off for tuesday and/or weds? also nam a little more se for weds at 12z

Memphis NWS for WEDS SOMETHING INTERESTING OF NOTE...GFS STRONG TORNADO PARAMETER IS AROUND 20 WHICH IS PRETTY UNPRECEDENTED /1 OR 2 IS CONSIDERED HIGH/.

18z gfs much stronger with the monday low 994 mb in western MO by 00z tuesday and aorund 991 in western IL by 06z puts STL in corsshairs again

12z gfs holy moly

may 2003 had 543 tornadoes, a record I do believe the top 10 are all May or June I'm not sure what the monthy record is for april..but we may smash that if trends continue