downeastnc

oh new storms firing closer to MBY.....reminds me of the day I had a tornado come within 200 yrds of my house back in Mar 2009.....very similar setup.

low top storms riding the warm front......wouldnt be surprised to see several more warnings voer the next 2-3 hrs....with the one south of Southern Pines being next they have put a severe thunderstorm warning on it but its got a fairly tight rotation with it.

Yeah basically right over Mt Olive.....storm is headed for the general Kinston area...a few other small cells with rotation west of this one as well.....one just south of Southern Pines looks like it could be a problem as well.

Well at 3am we got 54 and a north wind on a forecast for a low of 62 so the front has made it at least as far south as Hwy 264......temps in the mid 40's up north...still calling for 75 tomorrow as the front goes back north....

I had to turn my AC on got to 78 in the house even with the windows open and I gotta have it cold to sleep, low of 68 and a high of 80 tomorrow means it stays on till tomorrow nights cold front......and the neighbor behind me mowed his onion grass,hen bit and dandelions.

Yeah this would be a nice little event to finish the year on....

Ill take the 18Z GFS for Feb 5-6th, the trend all winter has been for slower, stronger and more neutral to neg tilted troughs as we get closer to the event.......if that trend plays out again then Feb 5-6th would be much snowier in the Carolinas. Especially my end of the state

Yeah lots of crazy in this thread lately....people need to let the pattern change happen...models are most likely pretty wrong in the 7+ day range if there is a major pattern change back to cold coming, they just don't do well with locking in on them until it actually happens....so if there is going to be another substantial cold outbreak it wont be evident until mid week or later.....but hey lets take the long range GFS to heart cause its always right

GFS/Euro both give eastern NC a dusting Monday night....be interesting to see if the NAM picks up on it....shouldbt be much not enough moisture to turn into anything significant but if we can squeeze a .5-1" out of it it will be the 3rd time this year the ground is covered with snow... MHX AFD "Last several runs of ECM/GFS have come in more bullish on moisture with this mid level feature. There will be plenty of lift in the 850-700MB layer, and enough moisture availability to squeeze out some light precip. Temps at the same time will be cooling from top-down through the overnight, and have introduced small pops for -SN or -SN/-RA late Mon night through early Tue morning. Best chance for flakes will be across nrn zones where deeper moisture and colder column coexist. At this time not expecting travel problems as amounts look to be quite light whatever falls.

The last storm didn't get modeled well until 48 hrs out and was not even on the radar really 5 days out or so....its funny folks are putting stock in the GFS after 144 hrs much less 300+....once the pattern change actually starts the GFS and every other model will go wall to wall cold but I doubt they really show it well until mid next week.....its like folks don't remember the models did the exact same thing just 1 month ago with the last cold outbreak.....or that models typically have trouble resolving pattern changes and try to flip back to the existing pattern instead of locking into the new pattern in the mid to long range.....its like that literally every single time there is a major change in the pattern.

Its pretty much how the Jan outbreak started......2 of the 3 biggest snows in my life happened Feb 24th and Mar 2-3.....the thing about Feb cold is climo wise its about the coldest air you can get in the arctic with the cold peaking there in early to mid Feb.....

Models, especially the GFS are horrible at pattern changes, they never lock into a blocky pattern until its within 7 days or so.....folks need to look at the indexes, and overall setup and not hug the warm ups the GFS has after the first week of Feb....if the forecast for most indexes are correct and frankly they probably are then it will be very cold in Feb....sometime between Feb 1-10th its gonna get blocky and be darn near record cold for 7-10 days at least .

we broke bunches of record lows and even tied our all time record low of -4...we also probably spent more time in the single digits in that week than we have the entire decade ( or two even) prior to that week.....ironically we actually went above freezing barely for 4-5 hrs the day it snowed so we didnt get the consecutive hr record everyone else got.

These patterns love to repeat, I mean hell they do it when we are locked into a torchy winter and they do it when we get good winters its just those are much less frequent....I have no doubt the we get another good 2-3 weeks of legit winter weather before spring... run this loop and watch the cold over in Siberia start to migrate back to the Hudson Bay area....we get a tall western ridge to come back and all that good deep cold will be headed southbound.... https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=T2m&runtime=2018012006&fh=0

Depending on the timing and strength of the cold air these type of setups have actually done ok in the past for a general 2-4" event over a lot of NC.....just need a strong wave to pass south of the mts and track east south of NC and then pop the weak coastal....

The NAM 3k is still a pretty nasty thump for a lot of central and eastern NC...this would be a bit more than flurries in the Triangle

you guys all act like winter is over after this week or something......missing out this week doesnt mean there wont be other chances down the road.....though the cold will need some time to reload and a mid Jan warm up will happen. Then its a matter of waiting to see if the cold dumps south again around late Jan into Feb for another few weeks of cold and snow chances....

You would think we live in North Dakota with the way folks expect snow to happen down here.....overall in NC ( outside the mts ) your lucky to see winter weather happen 3-5 times a year and of those times it might accumulate 2-3.....its not even Jan yet and the overall pattern the next 2 weeks is one of the coldest in a while...the GFS not having a storm 5-6 days out is in no way meaningful since for one its the GFS and two models in general suck at picking up storms in the SE in this type of pattern and often doesnt get it right till inside 72 hrs....see Xmas 2010 as a prime example.

Yeah they didnt even exist 10K years ago.....in fact they are closer to 5K yrs old....and the first formation was 50 miles east of the current location and they move westward slowly as overwash takes the beachside and moves it to the sound side in storms....this of course has been greatly controlled the last 100 yrs or so by humans.... to keep it on topic, Maria might actually see winds come up to match her pressure ( 944 last pass) as she has storms around the center now....and Windspeed ninjad my edit...

yeah she was.....she hit as a 85 mph Cat 1 and her surge was the highest ever recorded over most of the Pamlico River basin because her angle of approach and path, combined with the fact she was basically stalled/crawling on the coast ......

If a cane ( even a Cat 1 ) parks just off the OBX for a day there will be more than power outages and beach erosion, HWY 12 will wipe out in dozens of spots and new inlets will be cut trapping anyone on those parts of islands....the dunes can last for a while but once they get taken out homes will start to go, its one thing to have those conditions for 12 hrs or so but once you get into the 24-30 hr range the over wash would be extreme. Then you have to take into account that all that water in the sounds will be blown inland and put 8-12 ft of water in places well inland...Irene did more damage to the OBX than many stronger hurricanes..... Irene put more water up the river than any storm this video is shot well inland and shows 10ft or surge This is because all this water had to go somewhere

Outer eyewall ramping up on radar...things are about to go downhill in a hurry on the SE coast of PR....

Probably wont be enough to matter for Puerto Rico, though it might weaken a bit....I guess a 160 mph Cat 5 is better than a 175 mph Cat 5 .....inner eyewall still looks ok on radar....either way not going to be a pleasant morning in PR....

Pressure is up a few mb to 912 on that last pass and she looks a little less intense on the loop, some warming cloud tops especially on the north and west side....SW corner of St Croix in the moat but unless there is a nice north wobble should stay out of the inner eyewall...

Maybe a bit of a west wobble right as the eye gets close to St Croix might keep the island out of the inner eyewall....reports of a 114mph gust there already in the outer eyewall.