BornAgain13

Just now, NCSNOW said:

Ukie Clown. Came south quite a bit.

 

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12z GEFS upped qpf like the OP

1 minute ago, griteater said:

New UKMet on the early maps: Sfc low is in southern Bama at 96, then well off NC at 120.  The 500mb wave is in the sheared out camp...more of a west to east trek...so, it doesn't look like the storm bumped north this run.  CAD setup looks fine.

Sounds good for us in the southeast.

Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Not only VA but WNC. Boone gets 17 inches this run per GFS. I like the trends for WNC. More qpf. 

That's the key to.... will this thing trend wetter? Would make a big difference in ice or snow quantity.

Correction,  12z GFS & CMC both hammer central and southern VA with big snows... looks like more qpf this time.

12z GFS hammers central and southern VA with big snows.

The LP looks a little south on the 12z gfs compared to 6z, but not huge differences from my untrained eye...

The NAM is definitely lacking moisture...

06z EURO went a little south from the 0z fwiw.

One thing we have going against what the euro showed is the 6z GFS and GEFS both went south.

10 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

That depends, what time is the EURO?

I believe its 12:45

Need someone to stay up and give the pbp on the Euro. Any volunteers? lol

@griteater what's your take on the 0z UK?

5 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Been hanging out in the Mid Atlantic forum for days on this one. I’ll tell you what GGEM led the way for our area with the 12/9/18 event so I wouldn’t listen to anyone that thinks it’s garbage or is writing it off. Has been fairly consistent in the evolution with this one imo. 

Yeah, That run was nice. But I'm sticking with EURO/EPS/GEFS... not sure if it gets as far north as the GFS suggests with that High Pressure. 

CMC wallops mby with 10"+ and GFS says have 1" of snow and a lot of ICE.

1 minute ago, CaryWx said:

as in game over? 

No, as in ICE hanging everywhere.

The GFS continues to be the warmest... I hope its wrong!

I know it's the 84 hr NAM, but it looks to be very far north...

How does the 18z EPS look? Does anyone on here have access to it?

I wouldn't get to caught up on the OP GFS just yet... the 18z GEFS is noticeably more south

2 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

Where have you gotten the 18z (or even the 12z) FV3? TT and PW are both stuck at 6z for the FV3.

Someone had it and talked about it on the Mid Atlantic forum.

I'll stick with the EURO/EPS/UK right now.... why? Because they give me more snow. lol

So the 18z GFS and FV3 both are just to far north... mainly ice or rain... need it to come back south...

2 minutes ago, Wow said:

I've been reading periodically.  On vacation in a min cabin right now.  I think we'll get something of significance... Still waiting

Looking forward to your posts on this storm!