BornAgain13

Unfortunately not good trends overnight outside of the ICON. Just can't get the timing right with the cold air and moisture. Will continue to watch.

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Canadian is soooo close to a big winter storm in CAD areas... much colder this run but that cold suppresses the moisture a little.

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0z ICON

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Don't know if it's right but a hit on the Icon tonight.......

0z ICON puts down 10-12" northeast of Raleigh.

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0z ICON has a light to moderate snow event for Central NC and Southern VA for next week, with significant snow around Raleigh and points east.

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This storm is very close to being very big for many. It’s easy to get caught up in the windshield wiper effect but the bottom line is that we’re watching very subtle changes that can influence a big nothing burger or a paste bomb. Too early to tap out. 

Would love for us go start seeing better trends with this storm... DT apparently still thinks it's happening. He said it's game on lol. Don't know what he's seeing..

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18 GEFS is better for a lot of the area FWIW.

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Is this one of the AI models? That’s a climatologically favored look.

The 0z SPIRE MODEL fwiw...


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Definitely better CAD signature on the Euro. Just no precip with it!

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12z GEFS is a solid hit for the foothills and mountains of VA and NC... also wintry into the Piedmont of NC and VA

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GFS has Snow/Significant ICE for southern VA/NC... ICON has Significant snow in NC... CMC has the Low but to warm = cold rain... interesting for sure.. it does look like we are going away from suppression and more into needing the cold air.

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Also the 0z CMC ensembles are a hit. Unfortunately the Euro isn't much and the EPS is very minimal.

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The 6z GEFS still has the signal for a solid storm for NC/VA... the OP just will not cooperate lol

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We're the changes at H5 positive or negative?

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Would love to get excited about this one and we still have plenty of time... but right now with the Euro and GFS both going with suppression... its hard to bet against that.

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Something tells me the European will be interesting.

Allan Huffman talked about the threat on "X". He says the operational runs have more skill than the ensemble so don't discount the OPS even at this range, unfortunately. All of them other than the cmc are to suppressed and the CMC is to warm.

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FWIW, the 6z GEFS is a Major Winter Storm for the SE.

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Not a forecast! But fun to look at. This is the KMA for the possible 4th-5th storm

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12z EURO with a weird outcome... Heavy snow on the coast. Nothing Inland

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12Z GEFS still has the storm... not as good as 6z but still there.

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