McDowell_Weather

56 minutes ago, SnoJoe said:

I usually don't start complaining until about the third Scotch. Somewhere in the 10 to 11 pm range. But like Ashy said, it's hard watching it snow down south while it creeps north.

Temp's down to 33.9 after a high of 38.9 so I think we're ok there. Smells like snow.

Cheers My Friend!!!!!!!

Looking good fellas! Lets bring it home!!!!!

Howdy howdy fellas looking good for a paste bomb classic some of yall may do better with NWF events but this one has legs for the valleys and foothills plus the monday system.....I've only waited a decade for another pattern like this to even track materialize or not. 

On 12/6/2020 at 9:12 PM, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

I’m at just over 3,000 feet now

I used to live on coxes creek I've seen some wild weather in the grassy creek area. I've seen it pour snow at the golf course pushing five inches get on up the road just a half mile to spruce pine barley anything. The escarpment plays a big role in that area imo. 

Hey fellas hope yall had a great thanksgiving!!! I took little man up to Roan the other day ill post pics later but it was white out conditions for sure had to kick 4h in a few times.

I just saw a flake!!!! Holy $hit.......oh wait just a cigarette ash lol Good luck guys I got the yota all gased up my son can barley walk from layers were good to go!!!

1 minute ago, strongwxnc said:

Up to 3” here.. that’s nice


.

Good luck Mark, I hope you get hammered I know the kids will enjoy it. My son's already glued to the window asking every min when it's going to snow lol 

On 1/7/2020 at 1:45 PM, Hvward said:

Here is a shot of that shelf cloud as it came through Asheville from one of my live camera. I had a quick burst of sleet that coved my whole deck in Alexander.

Also someone posted an awesome video of it to my Facebook page. https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2487781074825784&id=1376462082624361&_ft_=mf_story_key.2487781074825784%3Atop_level_post_id.2487781074825784%3Atl_objid.2487781074825784%3Acontent_owner_id_new.1376462082624361%3Aoriginal_content_id.2487614974842394%3Aoriginal_content_owner_id.1437009336%3Athrowback_story_fbid.2487781074825784%3Apage_id.1376462082624361%3Aphoto_id.10221954353514743%3Astory_location.4%3Aattached_story_attachment_style.video_inline%3Apage_insights.%7B%221376462082624361%22%3A%7B%22page_id%22%3A1376462082624361%2C%22actor_id%22%3A1376462082624361%2C%22dm%22%3A%7B%22isShare%22%3A1%2C%22originalPostOwnerID%22%3A2487614974842394%7D%2C%22psn%22%3A%22EntStatusCreationStory%22%2C%22post_context%22%3A%7B%22object_fbtype%22%3A266%2C%22publish_time%22%3A1578419424%2C%22story_name%22%3A%22EntStatusCreationStory%22%2C%22story_fbid%22%3A%5B2487781074825784%5D%7D%2C%22role%22%3A1%2C%22sl%22%3A4%2C%22targets%22%3A%5B%7B%22actor_id%22%3A1376462082624361%2C%22page_id%22%3A1376462082624361%2C%22post_id%22%3A2487781074825784%2C%22role%22%3A1%2C%22share_id%22%3A0%7D%5D%7D%7D&__tn__=%2As%2As-R

I was on my way through the gorge when it rolled through. Nice pic

I'm sure the nam is amped...but WRF and RGEM both has snow breaking out in all of WNC at the end of there runs 48hr. I remember a weak wave in March of 14 I think that produced 3in here in marion. NWS went with flurries the night before when all of short range guidence was all over it GSP even said when it was over that it met warning criteria but it was to late to issue point is systems like this are sneaky.

9 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Yea Tuesday morning is looking more interesting even for northern foothill areas possibly getting some wet snow for a few hours if the NAM is correct. 

I could see even our area pick up a dusting to a half inch in places if it's heavy enough temps are warm if we can get it in here by 12z i think we got a shot.

8 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

From what all the mets have said and what the LR models show, it does look like most of January is toast. Of course we'll get a few cold fronts to come through and some locations in the mountains may see some light events (like yesterday); but it's going to be a warm pattern for at least a couple of weeks. 

Now a little positive attitude, I still think we have at least a 50/50 chance of getting into a better (if not great) pattern. Fab February could be coming. Couple of points: 1) All the indices are bad, but as said before what comes up must come down (question is when). 2) We've got locked into a stable pattern. Once we get into February/March (usually) the global stable winter patterns begin to fluctuate with  smaller troughs and ridges. No guarantees, but at least we can get (quick) eastern troughs again. 3) The northern hemisphere has had cold. It's been locked up in western Canada. If/when we get a flip, it should not take long (days) to get us very cold.  

So basically it could end up being the worse winter ever, Or it could end up being a great winter, or something in between.     

Couldn't have said it better my friend one thing's for sure too it's been wet with no end in sight all we need is to get that cold air and we could be in bussiness I know it's wishful but definitely in the realm of possibilities. There a lot of truth in the ole saying we need the cold first not enough to suppress but in our neck of the woods to be tapped anyway having cold air like we have on our side of the hemisphere is a plus in my book.

There's to much cold air up in Canada for me to throw in the towel just yet for anybody really. I do like to get a good snow before FEB bc it produces more of a mix (waa,more amped,ect) but it has produced for All of us too. I dont like analogs anymore there's to much change going on call it gw or whatever you like we're just in a whole other ballpark than even 10-15 years ago imho. So I'm generally a realist but to cliff dive for anyone at this point is funny yeah the decks stacked in your favor but if you enjoy that it's time for a new hobby or state. 

Went across Old hwy 105 last night of course I forgot my phone lol But anyway solid 30+ gusts with moderate snow it was a nice surprise for sure.

4 minutes ago, ryan1234 said:

 

I swear, if this yet another I-85 and N storm, I am going to personally demolish the entire interstate and move it 50 miles south. Yes, it would be easier to move, but I am tired of that being the case with literally Every. Single. Storm. 

It's crazy watching the transition line during a storm how it litterly follows 85. Don't feel bad I've watched a many NW flow snow to my north by 15 miles on the out looking in. Sunny and 50 at my house while areas above 3000ft get slammed so damn close you can smell it. 

4 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Now we need the cold air, that is the only major ingrediant missing

Sent from my A577VL using Tapatalk
 

Depends on your area too this has NW of 85 written all over it as usual. Even the 850s on the cmc if that were the outcome are very marginal. 

The trends are our friends fellas cmc, euro and even the recent navgem have all shifted more in our favor I know the euro still a little to fast but baby steps at this point is great we got time...

It's cool to keep your expectations down but I wouldn't write this one off along and north of 85 NC/SC. It's going to bomb out along the coast more than likely question is where? I wouldn't be surprised to see a bigger precip field blossom further NW just need enough caa. A lot of typical thread the needle perfect timing ECT I know but ive seen worse produce and not just for my neck of the woods (mtns/foothills) I'm just glad to have something to track before Christmas even if it doesn't pan out. 

dont look at the 0z gfs guys.....

32.0/31.0 After hovering around 31.8 since midnight wa starting to see temps near 40 above 4000ft. light glaze nothing major and bucket look up brown mtn lights if you havent already maybe a possibility theres several legends about them.

34..8/19.7....mostly clear some high level clouds to my south

38 minutes ago, FLweather said:

 

Temps and dewpoints like that ain't going to provide an ice storm.

Things might get a little slushy. But will quickly wash away.  

By the time you wet bulb temps right around 30.

Models "have under done" the dry air.

WAA is surging north. 

 

I live on the eastern slopes literly almost 1800 ft I get ice when 10 mins down the road doesn't but I agree with your statement.

36/24 along the escarpment mostly clear 

I don't take each run of the models at long range as the gospel. I look at trends and one thing is for certain there is a lot of energy flying around and with the winter solstice on our heels.There's somthing about season changes that gets things interesting my biggest snows here in marion was early to mid Dec and of course 93. Definitely has my attention anyway hope everyone had a great thanksgiving.

 Happy Thanksgiving y'all. I truly love this time of year. This ole mountain crew holds a special place in my heart. So cheers my friends heres to getting fat and late night euro runs lol God bless!!!

Fun times ahead fellas. Always love this time of year. Nothing beats the holiday season with cold weather and potential snow especially in the mountains!