Tater Tot

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Posts posted by Tater Tot

  1. 40 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

    I can't remember the last time that the NHC was this conservative when considering an upgrade to TS strength. It seems like they use a much different criteria depending on the TC proximity to land.

    I remember people pulling their hair out over Bill last year.

  2. 1 minute ago, CoastalBecs said:

    It seems to be getting that "S" look now on satellite. It appears the center is under the convection again too.

    I can't wait for it to troll us for the billionth time and fall apart!

  3. 54 minutes ago, Tibet said:

    Upon entering the Straits of Florida on September 20, Rita strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane by 1200 UTC,[9] while maintaining a minimum barometric pressure of 985 mbar (hPa; 29.09 inHg). Six hours later, Rita intensified further into a Category 2 hurricane before subsequently passing approximately 45 mi (75 km) south of Key West, Florida.[2] Aided by a favorable outflow pattern and anomalously warm sea surface temperatures  (SSTs), the trend of rapid intensification continued,[9] and Rita reached Category 3 hurricane status upon entering the Gulf of Mexico by 0600 UTC on September 21, making it a major hurricane.[2][8]

    Once in the Gulf of Mexico, Rita passed over the extremely warm Loop Current during the midday hours of September 21, enabling continued strengthening. As a result, the hurricane's wind field significantly expanded and the storm's barometric pressure quickly fell.[2] By 1800 UTC that day, Rita attained Category 5 hurricane intensity,[10]



    12  UTC Sept 20 as a CAT 1 -> 18 UTC Sept 21 CAT 5


    Compare TD9's path to Rita's






    TD9's Current Location / Projected Path:





    People should be extremely concerned by this storm given historical activity.




    Rita was in the open gulf, though. Most of the models seem to be suggesting that this will have much less time to strengthen before another landfall. Plus, Rita was already an organizing hurricane by the time it was able to start bombing out, and given its track record, we'll still be waiting for this one to even get a name. :lol:

  4. Just now, andyhb said:

    It wasn't a house.

    Oh. :lol: Thanks. Still really impressive scouring though. I'm not experienced in damage photos but if you told me it was EF-5 scouring I wouldn't disbelieve it. I was amazed at the amount of scrutinization that goes on with determining strength from pictures like this over on another forum... people were coming up with things I wouldn't have begun to think of, like the type of soil, what was growing in the field, depth of scouring, etc. Gave me a headache.

    7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

    If we go down this "could've been EF5" road for a moment, one that may qualify is Henryville.  I don't remember if it was Simon Brewer or somebody else who was describing some of the intense, non-structural damage with that one.

    One of my favorite videos ever comes from the Henryville tornado (language warning btw).


  5. 6 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

    Isabel 2.0 with a bit less land between the cane and us - like maybe a landfall in the unlikely place of SEVA and then going just south and west of us. 

    I'd love to see the EOC during something like that...I imagine pure controlled chaos. Well...and the fact that MoCo is one of the most entitled feeling counties the amount of nuisance calls of 911 probably goes off the charts. 

    :lol: Reminds me of that Andrew video on youtube that features a 911 call on the morning after. Some woman calls to tell them the power is out, lmfao. 

  6. Oh wow, I didn't realize how perfectly Alex rode the gulf stream. I thought he was just an example of the best that a storm could possibly look that far north. I knew the coastal waters were much cooler, but I figured they didn't extend far out enough to have much effect until right at the time of landfall. 

    And of course dry air and shear will always be an issue, but assuming the hypothetical scenario where both conditions are at their lowest, and cause minimum disruptions... what's the best a storm could look?

    The 1938 scenario is the most likely to bring cat3+ conditions to NE, but don't all the super-fast-moving storms have godawful satellite and radar presentation, like Juan? I'm not thinking about how strong a NE hurricane could be as much as I'm wondering how tropical the storm could remain in nature, and how classic of a structure is possible.

  7. 3 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

    Just imagine the damage and destruction Cape Cod and especially Harwich and Chatham would go through if a category three or higher hurricane made it to a landfall on Cape Cod?  Unimaginable and with the SSTs able to sustain a hurricane through 40N latitude, it wouldn't weaken much if it made landfall over Falmouth, MA.

    Alex at least showed us that it was possible.


  8. 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

    .Couple of salient points. 91 water temps were cool due to some unwelling from a strong cold front the week before.  In fact that CF actually set the stage for the home brew. Like Gloria Bob arrived at low tide from Fishers island to SRI. Unexpected significant shear developed just north of the hotel buoy just prior to landfall. It's really rare to get an intact cane ala 1815 1938 1954 so much going against it.

    Can't help but wonder just how intact those storms really were. Wasn't 1938 a warm-seclusion cyclone? I can't imagine it looked that terrific. Carol is the only one that sounds like it could have looked decent.

    I mean, Bob is the strongest NE hurricane in recent history, and this was how he looked. :P


  9. Everyone on my mom's facebook feed is saying there was a small tornado in Stafford lol. I was out and watched the storm from across the Rappahannock river, and I saw a pretty defined rainshaft which I guess could have been a microburst. There was also a lot of scud. Definitely didn't see any noticeable rotation though.


    If I was that close to even an EF-0 tornado and had no idea I'm going to be piisssed. 5b373a2e.gif