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eyewall

Meteorologist
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Posts posted by eyewall

  1. 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

    Now a trip down memory lane in the opposite direction. I believe it was 2001 and they had forecast a foot + and hoisted warnings for all of central NC a day before. The day of I woke up and there was someone from the weather channel in Raleigh and they were talking about the system taking longer than expected to organize but snow was still supposed to overspread the area to the tune of 6-8”. As the day wore on it became apparent the forecast had missed badly and the storm was much further east than forecast. We went from a 12-16” forecast to getting barely a dusting. I think the eastern folks had a great storm but it was downright disheartening for us in central NC 

    That was one of the worst heartbreakers for sure.

  2. 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

    I think someone pulled two other instances of it earlier but we’re getting very close to our record. Also, I bet those other blankings featured some sort of ice or storms nearby. It’s the complete lack of ANYTHING remotely close that blows me away. Not even Greensboro or Roxboro has had snow in this period. From that perspective, this feels unprecedented. I mean 2 years in a row and not a single system inside 5 days to track, it feels about as close to snowing here as it’s been in Tampa Florida during this time 

    You are spot on with that!

  3. 4 minutes ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said:

    It depends where you were in 93.  We only got about 4 -5 inches of snow here just north of RDU after it rained all day.

    We got 21” of snow in one night in 2000.

     

    Yeah that storm had an inland track. I was on Long Island and we had 8 inches of snow followed by heavy rain. There was a flash freeze behind it which turned any remaining snow into a block of ice. Birmingham Alabama had twice the amount of snow we did from that one.

    • Like 5
  4. 2 hours ago, WNC_Fort said:

    Appreciate all the play by plays this winter @GaWx! Shout out to @wncsnowfor keeping it real all winter and getting a lot of hate along the way. Wasn't what any of us wanted, but sometimes that's how it shakes out. 

     

    Getting blanked 2 years in a row is just freaking awful. Raleigh will reach the 1000 day mark sometime in October and I believe 1044 days by the time the next meteorological winter begins.

    • Like 3
    • Thanks 1
    • Sad 2
  5. 19 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:

    It is absolutely crazy how in a week we went from a cold pattern and potential snow to warm up and rain. 
    Wouldn’t it be something if in a week went back to what it was showing 7 days ago?

    The models are obviously horrible any more.  
    just look at the storm the they just went north.  I mean right up to storm start time models were still changing and they still were to low for some area. 

    Yeah at this point Raleigh has the climate of far southern Georgia so who knows.

    • Thanks 1
  6. Remember the advertised pattern shift? Well this is where we are at instead:

    Thursday
    Sunny, with a high near 65. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 9 to 14 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 24 mph.
    Thursday Night
    Mostly clear, with a low around 44. Southwest wind 6 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
    Friday
    Partly sunny, with a high near 62. Northwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming south in the afternoon.
    Friday Night
    A slight chance of rain after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44. Southeast wind 5 to 13 mph becoming southwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
    Saturday
    Partly sunny, with a high near 55.
    • Like 2
  7. 1 hour ago, GaWx said:

     The 12Z Euro, UKMET, and ICON are all strongly suppressed and thus don’t have precip get anywhere far enough north for a close call to snow. OTOH as already noted, the not as suppressed GFS and CMC are at least close on the back edge of the precip. to some snow falling 2/18-19. Some snow falling would be a big deal for this winter to date.

     What camp are you in? The I don’t care camp doesn’t count as this thread is for forecast discussion for serious folks. ;)

    Considering NWS RAH is more concerned with fire weather during this time I am not impressed. It seems like this may end up more of a Virginia event.

    • Like 1
  8. 7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

    In just 6 days, the GEFS AO forecast went from this on Feb 8th:

    image.thumb.png.628d2978baa5febe27667a395a111c22.png


    To this today: the forecast for Feb 21st has risen from -3 to +1, one of the biggest forecast turnarounds I can recall within just 6 days! So, it isn’t just the Weeklies that failed. The Weeklies failing isn’t unusual. The within two week ensemble timeframe (for all ensembles) has also badly failed, which is the biggest disappointment:

    image.thumb.png.d3a92f3774c303a64273b5bc1948fdd7.png
     

    The NAO and PNA have similarly badly failed.

    Yep the advertised change has all but evaporated. Don't worry we'll get in time for weeks of cold rain in April.

    • Like 2
  9. 7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

    It definitely tries. Continuing issue (besides suppression) is going to be that NS low messing up BL. At this point root for it to be amped and trend north. We’re in the phase of the season that it would take a miracle so that’s what we need!

    Yeah it is close in that 2/18 timeframe. We shall see.

    • Like 2
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