eyewall
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Posts posted by eyewall
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I can tell you the worst traffic will occur right after totality ends. Nobody waits out the partial phases after unless they are a photographer or something like that. That was my experience in 2017. Getting there wasn't as bad.
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Brian McNoldy - Unbelievable: the North Atlantic sea... | Facebook
4.5 Standard Deviations above normal for water temps in the North Atlantic. That is essentially unprecedented and certainly a factor in our SER.- 2
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17 hours ago, NC DataDude said:
We got this!
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Is being below freezing this morning the pattern change?
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DT is getting roasted online after saying the apps were wrong about an inch or 2. Oops.
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1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:
Now a trip down memory lane in the opposite direction. I believe it was 2001 and they had forecast a foot + and hoisted warnings for all of central NC a day before. The day of I woke up and there was someone from the weather channel in Raleigh and they were talking about the system taking longer than expected to organize but snow was still supposed to overspread the area to the tune of 6-8”. As the day wore on it became apparent the forecast had missed badly and the storm was much further east than forecast. We went from a 12-16” forecast to getting barely a dusting. I think the eastern folks had a great storm but it was downright disheartening for us in central NC
That was one of the worst heartbreakers for sure.
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1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:
I think someone pulled two other instances of it earlier but we’re getting very close to our record. Also, I bet those other blankings featured some sort of ice or storms nearby. It’s the complete lack of ANYTHING remotely close that blows me away. Not even Greensboro or Roxboro has had snow in this period. From that perspective, this feels unprecedented. I mean 2 years in a row and not a single system inside 5 days to track, it feels about as close to snowing here as it’s been in Tampa Florida during this time
You are spot on with that!
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I believe being blanked two winters in a row would be a first for Raleigh.
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4 minutes ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said:
It depends where you were in 93. We only got about 4 -5 inches of snow here just north of RDU after it rained all day.
We got 21” of snow in one night in 2000.
Yeah that storm had an inland track. I was on Long Island and we had 8 inches of snow followed by heavy rain. There was a flash freeze behind it which turned any remaining snow into a block of ice. Birmingham Alabama had twice the amount of snow we did from that one.
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Raleigh is on pace to join the 1000 day club in October 2024 since the last snowfall.
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2 hours ago, WNC_Fort said:
Getting blanked 2 years in a row is just freaking awful. Raleigh will reach the 1000 day mark sometime in October and I believe 1044 days by the time the next meteorological winter begins.
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19 minutes ago, Northern Foothills Snowman said:
It is absolutely crazy how in a week we went from a cold pattern and potential snow to warm up and rain.
Wouldn’t it be something if in a week went back to what it was showing 7 days ago?The models are obviously horrible any more.
just look at the storm the they just went north. I mean right up to storm start time models were still changing and they still were to low for some area.Yeah at this point Raleigh has the climate of far southern Georgia so who knows.
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Remember the advertised pattern shift? Well this is where we are at instead:
ThursdaySunny, with a high near 65. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 9 to 14 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 24 mph.Thursday NightMostly clear, with a low around 44. Southwest wind 6 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.FridayPartly sunny, with a high near 62. Northwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming south in the afternoon.Friday NightA slight chance of rain after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44. Southeast wind 5 to 13 mph becoming southwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.SaturdayPartly sunny, with a high near 55.- 2
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35 minutes ago, wncsnow said:
Well I accidentally ran over a squirrel today so maybe we just need Eyewall to do a ritualistic dance at Carter Finley Stadium and we will be good?
I would do that on the 50 yard line right now if it would work.
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1 hour ago, GaWx said:
The 12Z Euro, UKMET, and ICON are all strongly suppressed and thus don’t have precip get anywhere far enough north for a close call to snow. OTOH as already noted, the not as suppressed GFS and CMC are at least close on the back edge of the precip. to some snow falling 2/18-19. Some snow falling would be a big deal for this winter to date.
What camp are you in? The I don’t care camp doesn’t count as this thread is for forecast discussion for serious folks.
Considering NWS RAH is more concerned with fire weather during this time I am not impressed. It seems like this may end up more of a Virginia event.
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7 minutes ago, GaWx said:
In just 6 days, the GEFS AO forecast went from this on Feb 8th:
To this today: the forecast for Feb 21st has risen from -3 to +1, one of the biggest forecast turnarounds I can recall within just 6 days! So, it isn’t just the Weeklies that failed. The Weeklies failing isn’t unusual. The within two week ensemble timeframe (for all ensembles) has also badly failed, which is the biggest disappointment:The NAO and PNA have similarly badly failed.
Yep the advertised change has all but evaporated. Don't worry we'll get in time for weeks of cold rain in April.
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20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:
I’ll be in BTV for it, so I hope that’s totally wrong
Hopefully you will luck out. No way to know for sure now of course.
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7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:
It definitely tries. Continuing issue (besides suppression) is going to be that NS low messing up BL. At this point root for it to be amped and trend north. We’re in the phase of the season that it would take a miracle so that’s what we need!
Yeah it is close in that 2/18 timeframe. We shall see.
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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:
How accurate is that ?
Not 100% sure but based purely on climo.
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6 hours ago, UnionCountyNCWX said:
I was supposed to be at Beech the weekend of the 16 incher, but called into work 48 hours before i was supposed to leave. It stings now more than ever that I missed that.
ugh I am sorry.
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28 minutes ago, mreaves said:
You should be skiing at Smuggs for this!
Too much risk of cloud cover in New England
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March obs
in Southeastern States
Posted
This morning as the sun came up in Raleigh. Unfortunately I didn't get lucky enough to catch any of the lightning.