raindancewx

Honestly, you guys seem to be over-reacting a bit to last year. Conceptually, if you split the lower 48 into four regions, the strongest indicators for a cold winter are something like: NE 1/4: -NAO, or a Modoki El Nino with high solar (2014, 1977, 2002, 1968, etc) SE 1/4: +PDO. Much stronger correlation to southern cold than any ENSO state if you look historically. 1983-84 and 1995-96 were both +PDO years for Nov-Apr. SW 1/4: An El Nino (>=27.0C) winter after a La Nina winter (<=26.0C). This is actually becoming rarer as a lot of years are cold Neutrals now instead of weak La Ninas. (2018, 2009, 2006, 1976, 1972, 1951, 1965, etc). In the SW, warming up from a cold Nino 3.4 dramatically y/y is a pretty strong indicator for cold if in the initial year is cold. Even 2011, a La Nina but much warmer than 2010, but fairly cold in New Mexico is an example of this, despite not being an El Nino. NW 1/4: A La Nina after an El Nino (2016, 2010, 2007, 2005, 1998, 1995 etc). I believe each of these since 1995 has been cold somewhere between the Dakotas and N. California, even 2005-06 was relatively cold in this zone v. the rest of the US. Last year, conceptually fit the SW cold pattern. However, if you recognize that the SOI jumped to +9 in Dec 2018 after being -3 in Dec 2017....that's actually close to a "La Nina after an El Nino" jolt to the SOI. Shockingly, the atmosphere responded and it got stupid cold in the NW & Plains in February, it snowed in Malibu, Billings had its coldest month since 1936, and so on. For these splits, the r-squared values approach 0.5 over long periods for indicating cold. It isn't that there aren't exceptions, but I tend to view these relationships as robust, as you get the opposite effects in each region when the relevant sign is reversed. ENSO has always been over-rated as a live indicator for seasonal stuff, it's more important for telling you where things are coming and where they came from.

The IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) is pretty interesting for how the Tropical Pacific looks right now. The set up in the Indian Ocean is more consistent with an El Nino. Part of me thinks this event will transition back to an El Nino, later in 2020 and then after that we'll get 2-3 La Ninas in a row, which will be terrible for most of the West. The SOI is still around -15 for September, which is broadly speaking a wet signal for the West but not so much where I am. The NAO looks like it will crash again for a bit late this month. I'm curious to see what the final NAO value is for September. My hunch is the NAO will be more volatile than predominantly negative or positive this winter. My tentative analogs have one -NAO month, one near average, and one +NAO month. We will see. September relative to March and May relative to April as a blend works pretty well in figuring out the predominant NAO state the next winter I find.

I was actually looking at snow for the upcoming cold season in New Mexico, and the higher elevation areas come out pretty well, the signal goes from below average snow at valley level to above average at the mountain tops. Highest terrain may be up to 20% above average. The signal I get for Albuquerque is for a lot of cold nights despite somewhat warmer than average highs. Last year, the NW 1/3 and Gila (SW NM by AZ) did well, generally normal to +80%, with the southern valleys and SE part of the state well below average. This is probably what I'll use for winter forecast, pending any last minute surprises in September (say, 2.4 inches of rain from now to 9/30 in Albuquerque).

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 28AUG2019 20.2-0.4 24.6-0.3 26.5-0.2 29.2 0.6 04SEP2019 19.8-0.6 24.9 0.0 26.6-0.2 29.1 0.5 11SEP2019 19.1-1.3 24.4-0.5 26.4-0.3 29.0 0.3 18SEP2019 19.1-1.3 24.2-0.6 26.5-0.2 29.3 0.6 Nice rebound in Nino 4. Nino 3.4 hanging tough. 30AUG2017 20.3-0.2 24.5-0.4 26.5-0.2 28.8 0.2 06SEP2017 20.4-0.1 24.3-0.6 26.2-0.6 28.7 0.1 13SEP2017 19.7-0.7 24.0-0.9 26.1-0.6 28.7 0.0 20SEP2017 19.3-1.1 23.9-1.0 26.3-0.4 28.7 0.0 A warm September in Nino 4 is a strong cold signal for a lot of the US, and that's broadly what my analogs have for October.

One of the old Jamstec runs had a cold Nino 3 / 1.2 peaking in SON, before decaying in winter. That seems more or less right to me. I don't disagree at all about Nino 1.2/3 remaining cold. But the +2 and -2 cold pools on the image above are both at the edges of Nino 3.4, at similar depth and similar magnitude. So I don't see any reason for warm west / cold east to change. The trick is Nino 3.4. This is the July run for SON. Looks like right now in the Nino zones. But then it had a decay in DJF. Nino 1.2 has a tendency to predict PDO changes, so the PDO zone is less positive than depicted, but otherwise, this was a good map. I think the weeklies will show some warmth recovery in Nino 4 and maybe Nino 3.4 this week, probably not to the extent Tropical Tidbits has though.

This would be classified as a Neutral if the look held, since CPC uses 120-170W, 5S-5N as its zone for designating El Nino and La Nina. However, the Modoki zones are 165E-140W, 10S-10N, for Box A, 110W-70W, 5N-15S for Box B, and 125E-145E, 10S to 20N for Box C. That's basically an idealized El Nino Modoki on the Japanese definition, at least for 9/22, were it to hold. Much of the warmth in Box is north of 5N and west of 170W.

Tropical Tidbits has a nice rebound in Nino 3.4 from a few days ago. Nino 3.4 was over 27.0C at around 27.2C in winter 2014-15, and the PDO was at record positive values from Nov-Apr, around +2. For the six month period, that's as high as it ever gets. The value last year was around 27.4C, but the PDO was much less positive.

The raw data CPC uses is reliable. They just think the ENSO thresholds for La Nina and El Nino are warming over time, and I don't think that is really true. So +0.5C in 2019 is warmer than +0.5C in 1959 if you look here - https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt YR MON TOTAL ClimAdjust ANOM 1950 1 24.56 26.18 -1.62 2019 1 27.21 26.45 0.76 The El Ninos in the 1950s with DJF Nino 3.4 readings above 27C act like modern El Ninos. The others don't, at least that is what I find. 26-27C ish works well in winter for Neutral conditions. A lot of what they think is warming thresholds seems more likely to be biases from small data where you happen to have 12 El Ninos in 30 years, instead of 10. Over 60 years, with more balanced positive PDO and negative PDO data, you find pretty steady concentrations of ENSO at 26C or less or at/above 27C in winter. For the older data sets, if you correlate the 1950s-now data with the same data, and then roll it back, you can get a good idea on older years generally. This is at attempt to do something similar to what I did, and nearly matches my data, for pre 1950 ENSO, using constant ENSO thresholds. https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

For reference, even though it is only September, the SOI is a fairly strong temperature signal for December & February in the US. Not really true for precip. Generally the deeper correlations "win" if the SOI is extremely positive or negative. It's a cold SE/warm NW signal for February, and a cold Northern Plains signal for Dec. Wet California signal is consistent with the La Nina after El Nino signal. Dry signal over the Midwest is actually pretty strong for February. My general hunch for this winter is it will be wet for many, but fewer, stronger storms than last year. As opposed to many weak storms. We'll see. A lot of our really crappy winters out here will have like 2-4 inches of rain (2x-4x average) in September. We may get an inch or so, but it's not looking like 1995, 2013, or 2017 wetness in late September just yet - all terrible winters here - despite the possibility of a big cut off low over the SW this week.

The SOI is around -17.5 for 9/1-9/19. It looks fairly negative for October on the model pressure pattern depictions too. 1980, 1990, 1992 and a few other years with fairly cold Nino 3.4 readings have neutral or negative SOI values in September, but nothing like this year, i.e., below -8. I do think 1992 is worthy as a comparison, in at least some capacity. Nino 3.4 was 26.65C, with a +0.7 SOI. I incorporate solar stuff into my analogs, so 1992-93 is a bad match on that. It's not great since it is a volcanic winter and had a colder AMO. But it is very close, at least over the Summer for the Nino zones. 28AUG2019 20.2-0.4 24.6-0.3 26.5-0.2 29.2 0.6 04SEP2019 19.8-0.6 24.9 0.0 26.6-0.2 29.1 0.5 11SEP2019 19.1-1.3 24.4-0.5 26.4-0.3 29.0 0.3 26AUG1992 20.3-0.3 24.8-0.2 26.7-0.1 28.9 0.3 02SEP1992 20.3-0.2 24.4-0.5 26.3-0.4 28.6 0.0 09SEP1992 19.7-0.8 24.4-0.5 26.4-0.3 28.7 0.1 The blend I like for winter actually has a stronger -NAO signal than I realized for winter, but it still has a pretty extended +NAO phase in Jan and probably half of February. Will be interesting to see if Dec comes in negative, I think it is possible if Nino 4 doesn't get near 29.0C by December.

To be honest, while I don't expect a La Nina to be the "classified state" for the winter, it probably will be close enough in the eastern zones that I do plan on using some La Nina analogs in my winter blend. The La Nina winters after El Nino winters tend to be wetter in the SW as a composite too, for what it is worth. IRI was still mentioning warm neutral / El Nino as possibilities for this winter based on the dynamical and statistical models as recently as this week - which I think is a bit insane. I was playing around with re-calibrating the subsurface color scheme from CPC, since they added in a light blue/orange for -0.5 to +0.5. If you make the scale the same for 2017 and 2019 for September 10 both years, it's a lot clearer that there is just less subsurface coolness at the moment compared to 2017, and more warmth too. I've been looking at 1953/2009 (much warmer anomalies Nino 4 than Nino 1.2) at the solar minimum in a blend with some kind of combination of 1983, 1995 (positive PDO La Ninas after El Ninos), with 1992/2018 thrown in to fix a couple other issues with the blend. Still working on the weighting, but it is probably those six years that I'll use for winter.

MJO looks like it will reach phase 1 around 10/1. That is very similar to last year. September looks a lot like a blend of 1995, 1953 and 2018 at the moment.

Want to see how September finishes up here, but I'm looking real hard at 1953-54, 1983-84, 1992-93, 1995-96, 2009-2010, 2018-19 as the winter blend. Extra weight on 2009 and 1995 in all likelihood. Snow would be pretty prolific for the interior South, NE, Ohio Valley and maybe the east slopes of the Rockies. Below average north and west of NM/CO generally.

I think this is a fairly cold winter for a lot of the US, but not necessarily a common pattern. Most of the blends I've been playing with have much of the country cold except for AZ, CA, and the Great Lakes / Northern Plains. Don't think it's a particularly wet winter for the four corner states. Have to keep looking at stuff though. I'll put out my outlook by 10/10.

More cooling this week, especially in Nino 1.2 and Nino 3 where the subsurface is very cold. Still warmer than 2017 overall. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 14AUG2019 20.0-0.7 24.7-0.3 27.0 0.1 29.5 0.8 21AUG2019 20.3-0.3 24.7-0.3 26.8 0.0 29.5 0.8 28AUG2019 20.2-0.4 24.6-0.3 26.5-0.2 29.2 0.6 04SEP2019 19.8-0.6 24.9 0.0 26.6-0.2 29.1 0.5 11SEP2019 19.1-1.3 24.4-0.5 26.4-0.3 29.0 0.3 16AUG2017 19.9-0.7 24.5-0.5 26.4-0.5 28.8 0.1 23AUG2017 19.6-1.0 24.6-0.4 26.7-0.1 28.9 0.2 30AUG2017 20.3-0.2 24.5-0.4 26.5-0.2 28.8 0.2 06SEP2017 20.4-0.1 24.3-0.6 26.2-0.6 28.7 0.1 13SEP2017 19.7-0.7 24.0-0.9 26.1-0.6 28.7 0.0 I'm working on my winter outlook. Will link to it in a month or so. My hunch is we're nearing the minimal depatures for Nino 1.2, probably -1 to -1.5 in Sept or Oct, and then it warms up relatively speaking. Nino 3 sees a later, but less pronounced minimum in October/November. Nino 3.4 doesn't get as cold, relatively, but remains fairly steady for a longer period. Nino 4 may briefly go negative against its long-term averages if the cold from the east washes west, but I don't think it lasts, and you'll see a rebound.

Not really seeing any reason for Nino 4 to cool off given how the subsurface looks. The Nino 3 should remain quite cold, with Nino 3.4 in between. Nino 1.2 looks like it may warm up some going forward. Less cold than in previous months underneath the surface in Nino 1.2

I'm in the cold-neutral camp myself. I don't think the tendency to be warmer but kind of similar looking to 2017 is going to change much. Blending warm Nino 4 years (El Ninos) with cold Nino 1.2/3 years seems to be matching my Summer weather. I do think Nino 3 is probably going to be essentially La Nina-ish for several months. It's hard to find big -SOI September years that are La Nina years in winter. Since Nino 3.4 was only 25.7C or so in 2017-18 (-0.8C v. 1951-2010), running 0.3-0.5 above it as we seem to be in Nino 3.4 is a cold Neutral. 2012-13 and 2013-14 were both in the 26-26.5C zone, near La Nina, not quite. 2012-13 was actually pretty cold here in the SW, but dry while 2013-14 was warm/dry. The 26.0-26.5C zone for Nino 3.4 seems to produce pretty wildly different outcomes depending on the other factors.

The Jamstec has an El Nino for winter, but the surface is fairly cold right now, as is the subsurface. Still a lot of warmth to come in at least Nino 4 though.

Tentatively looking at a US temperature pattern for winter that is a blend of 1953-54, 1983-84 (x2), 1995-96, 2009-10 (x2), 2017-18. Something like 2004, 2013, 2004, 1995 for precipitation. Idea is to make the West a bit wetter than the blend above since it isn't warm enough for Nino 4 probably. These aren't my forecast years, but August/September heat has narrowed down which SST combos are linking correctly with US weather. I should point out, the SOI in September is -16 or so, our region rarely has terrible winters after a big -SOI in September. SOI looks pretty negative through 9/17, I'm expecting it to be under -4 at least.

My hunch for the winter is that the SE will do well for some snow events, particularly in the interior. I think you'll have some unusual methods of entry for cold air into the US along with a strong subtropical jet, like in an El Nino, but it will be oriented more to come into the US via NM and TX rather than California. I haven't looked into it too much yet though. It's pretty hard to find any real dud winters out here after a big -SOI in September actually. I think Montana and the Dakotas are kind of a due for a break, three very harsh winters up there.

Latest European run has warmed a bit. I drew in yellow what I expect in Nino 3.4. At this point in recent years, the Euro September Nino 3.4 forecasts were pretty good. The SOI has been very negative in September so far, which means we should avoid La Nina conditions at least. Very hard to get below a -5 or -10 SOI in September and then a La Nina the following winter. The SOI should remain predominantly negative through at least 9/17. These are the Septembers since 1931 with a -4 to -12 SOI...it is actually currently at -16 for 9/1-9/10. The 1946 and 1932 ENSO winters were preceded by SOI Septembers under -8 and both were cold Neutrals, but almost all the others are El Ninos. Sept SOI 1976 -12.4 1951 -11.2 1987 -10.6 1969 -10.0 1957 -9.4 1939 -8.8 1977 -8.8 2018 -8.5 1932 -8.3 1941 -7.7 1990 -7.3 2002 -7.3 1948 -7.1 1993 -7.0 2014 -6.6 1934 -5.9 1963 -5.9 1980 -4.7 1986 -4.7 2006 -4.6

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 07AUG2019 20.3-0.6 25.3 0.1 27.3 0.4 29.6 0.9 14AUG2019 20.0-0.7 24.7-0.3 27.0 0.1 29.5 0.8 21AUG2019 20.3-0.3 24.7-0.3 26.8 0.0 29.5 0.8 28AUG2019 20.2-0.4 24.6-0.3 26.5-0.2 29.2 0.6 04SEP2019 19.8-0.6 24.9 0.0 26.6-0.2 29.1 0.5 Nino 3 warmed up a bit this week. Well behind 2017 for cold at this point, except in Nino 1.2 which is volatile. 09AUG2017 20.5-0.3 25.1 0.0 26.7-0.2 28.7 0.1 16AUG2017 19.9-0.7 24.5-0.5 26.4-0.5 28.8 0.1 23AUG2017 19.6-1.0 24.6-0.4 26.7-0.1 28.9 0.2 30AUG2017 20.3-0.2 24.5-0.4 26.5-0.2 28.8 0.2 06SEP2017 20.4-0.1 24.3-0.6 26.2-0.6 28.7 0.1 CFS & Canadian have essentially opposite winter forecasts right now, with the CFS warm almost everywhere for SSTs and the new Canadian cold almost everywhere. The Weatherbell guys like a blend of 2013-14/2014-15 or 2013-14 (x3), 2014-15, 2018-19. That gives you a cold eastern tropical Pacific, with a warm western tropical Pacific. I have some issues with it as a blend, but it does look close to current SSTs. The West is generally wetter in winters after El Ninos for one. The sea ice was also a lot higher in 2013/2014 at the minimum extent in September. Also think Nino 4 will be a lot warmer than that blend, but we'll see. The ECMWF Nino 3.4 Sept 1 forecast updated should be out any day now, and the Jamstec is likely later in the week too.

Most of the maps you find from DMI and others show 1952 was the minimum extent of the sea ice in the prior warm AMO period, and then there was a flat period and something of a recovery until the recent downturn. Researchers think there could be a 60-year pattern to the melting which is consistent with 2012 being so hard to beat, just like 1952 was in it its era. Not suggesting we aren't seeing more warming or melting, just that the warming doesn't really change the established cyclical patterns...it just warms them up. These guys looked at fish migration patterns and tree data as well as weather data. https://researchonline.jcu.edu.au/38582/4/Parker222015JGEESI16694.pdf

Closest matches for Nino 1.2, Nino 3, Nino 3.4, Nino 4 SSTs, for June, July, Aug are 1980, 1990, 1994, 2004, 2017, 2018. ONI was +0.3 for JJA, with only a +0.03C reading for August 2019 in Nino 3.4. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt 2019 6 28.19 27.65 0.54 2019 7 27.65 27.26 0.39 2019 8 26.94 26.91 0.03 Compared to 1951-2010, 26.94C is actually +0.3C in Nino 3.4. The Nino 4 reading for August is most similar to El Ninos still. 1992 is very close for Nino 3.4 in Jun, Jul, Aug - top match since 1950. The 1991-92 El Nino lasted pretty late into 1992, before fading to a Neutral briefly in 1992-93 and the going to an El Nino in early 1993. 1992 28.30 27.51 26.91 2019 28.19 27.66 26.94 Look at your closest Nino 4 matches though - for Jun-Aug. Nino 4 Jun Jul Aug 1987 29.37 29.38 29.38 1991 29.35 29.34 29.26 1994 29.23 29.40 29.50 1997 29.23 29.37 29.29 2002 29.61 29.52 29.43 2015 29.88 29.78 29.77 2019 29.58 29.66 29.44 My Summer Analogs were 1966, 1966, 1987, 1992, 1993, 2015. Not a terrible blend overall for the oceans or US high temps by month (cool Jun / hot west coast, then hot July/cool West coast, hot Aug, cold Northern Plains was the idea and more or less what happened). Nino 4 stayed even warmer than I had it, but Nino 3 / Nino 1.2 really cooled off a lot in August, although against 1951-2010 means, Nino 3 is still only -0.06C in August 2019. Nino 4 Jun Jul Aug 1966 28.93 28.98 28.58 1966 28.93 28.98 28.58 1987 29.37 29.38 29.38 1992 29.24 29.21 28.93 1993 29.01 28.97 28.92 2015 29.88 29.78 29.77 Mean 29.23 29.22 29.03 2019 29.58 29.66 29.44 Nino 3.4 Jun Jul Aug 1966 27.64 27.33 26.48 1966 27.64 27.33 26.48 1987 28.65 28.59 28.42 1992 28.30 27.51 26.91 1993 28.08 27.52 26.99 2015 28.90 28.75 28.79 Mean 28.20 27.84 27.35 2019 28.19 27.66 26.94 Nino 3 Jun Jul Aug 1966 25.89 25.26 24.35 1966 25.89 25.26 24.35 1987 27.48 26.92 26.57 1992 27.17 25.75 25.03 1993 27.06 26.05 25.36 2015 28.07 27.66 27.21 Mean 26.93 26.15 25.48 2019 26.82 25.71 24.83 Nino 1.2 Jun Jul Aug 1966 21.57 20.67 19.83 1966 21.57 20.67 19.83 1987 24.10 22.98 21.82 1992 23.98 21.89 20.87 1993 24.16 22.66 21.57 2015 25.32 24.50 22.66 Mean 23.45 22.23 21.10 2019 22.78 21.27 20.20

Getting close again...but Nino 3.4 fell of a cliff in Sept 2017 and had colder Nino 4 / subsurface conditions by now. We will see. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 07AUG2019 20.3-0.6 25.3 0.1 27.3 0.4 29.6 0.9 14AUG2019 20.0-0.7 24.7-0.3 27.0 0.1 29.5 0.8 21AUG2019 20.3-0.3 24.7-0.3 26.8 0.0 29.5 0.8 28AUG2019 20.2-0.4 24.6-0.3 26.5-0.2 29.2 0.6 09AUG2017 20.5-0.3 25.1 0.0 26.7-0.2 28.7 0.1 16AUG2017 19.9-0.7 24.5-0.5 26.4-0.5 28.8 0.1 23AUG2017 19.6-1.0 24.6-0.4 26.7-0.1 28.9 0.2 30AUG2017 20.3-0.2 24.5-0.4 26.5-0.2 28.8 0.2 06SEP2017 20.4-0.1 24.3-0.6 26.2-0.6 28.7 0.1 13SEP2017 19.7-0.7 24.0-0.9 26.1-0.6 28.7 0.0 20SEP2017 19.3-1.1 23.9-1.0 26.3-0.4 28.7 0.0 27SEP2017 19.5-1.0 24.4-0.5 26.5-0.2 28.4-0.2