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raindancewx

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  1. Premise for Colorado is that the location/elevation matters. Beyond that, the actual Dec-Feb period may not be very snowy. But I do think the shoulder seasons, especially March-May are pretty active. It's the type of thing where you could get 70 inches of snow, but it's 10/15/45 or something for Fall/Winter/Spring just to make something up. For what it's worth, in 2020-21, we had a very dry winter locally (-0.5") but we had 9.3" snow (+3") in that period. It's just that we had a lot of high ratio snow, and almost every storm from Dec-Feb was all snow, with no rain. Denver (Stapleton) had 25" in Dec-Feb 1972-73...but 95" in Oct-May. I expect a lesser version of that - this is July-Jun 1971-1972 0.0 0.0 17.2 3.1 1.4 8.4 10.9 9.1 7.1 17.2 0.0 0.0 74.4 1972-1973 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.7 19.4 9.8 12.1 3.0 15.1 24.8 1.0 0.0 94.9
  2. This is what I have for El Nino snow by PDO state. I'm using only the most + / - PDO years for Nov-Apr. This is using the old JISAO data. Most -PDO El Nino. As an example, they all kind of suck in areas of NY due west of the CT/MA line right? They tend to be at least sporadically good in the West. Then these are your most +PDO El Ninos, Nov-Apr. The PDO & ENSO strength often go together, so several of these are pretty powerful events, which can also be bad for the East. There is definitely some tendency for shit winters in the Northwest with these events. Several of the -PDO El Ninos are actually pretty solid up there.
  3. The whole point of analogs is that you can't actually match a single year on all variables. Just make a sheet in Excel with all the variables you think are important, and blend them together until you find something that matches actual weather conditions. I'm kind of baffled by the tendency to ignore the actual location of the warmth in Nino 1.2. It doesn't really matter if the atmosphere isn't responding the way you expect at 500 mb. The mere presence of that warmth has effects on its own. The main idea with Nino 1.2 warmth is just that the subtropical jet is stronger than normal, you certainly have that look already. You can see it with how well 1982/1997 matched the US temp profile in July-Sept 2023. You're still getting similar effects to the east based years, regardless of whether anyone is willing to acknowledge that or not. For god's sake just look. Hot TX, some random cold NV & Midwest, look familiar?
  4. What do you look at for the subsurface? There is plenty of cold to the center and west even if it is a bit incoherent. You have just enough heat by Nino 1.2 to block a Modoki look for a few months at least. It takes several weeks for that heat to surface.
  5. I'm really not a fan of 1986 for the Summer pattern. I don't think it's an impossible look for the winter. But you're talking about a really cold Summer, that was very wet for the Southwest. It was blazing hot, like all time record heat in places that are already very hot this year. Just a much colder look nationally in general. 2002 was coldest in Texas nationally, where the high and heat was strongest this year. I also vaguely remember that Summer being extraordinarily hot late as a teenager in NJ. 2009 was actually very cold in the east in July-Sept, whereas this year was not really that cold. If you try to blend 1986, 2009, 2009 together you get no real pattern overall for July-Sept. I've been meaning to ask, but isn't the VP velocity potential stuff messed up by the volcano? I would think the shitload of extra moisture screws up where "above normal / below normal" sets up relative to a 30-year baseline.
  6. One thing I'd like to see more of in outlooks is developing correlations for counting stats. I had this in my outlook last year: Cold Day Count in ABQ (-5) / (-10) Nov 14 / 5 Dec 5 / 0 Jan 5 / 0 Feb 7 / 2 ----------------- Total 31 / 7 (ranges given were 25-35 cold days, and 3-13 very cold days) Sum 1637 880 - - 685 0 0.14 T - Average 54.6 29.3 42.0 -3.7 - - - - 0.0 Normal 57.3 34.1 45.7 - 579 0 0.57 0.9 - 2022-11-18 40 28 34.0 -10.6 31 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-11 48 26 37.0 -10.5 28 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-04 48 32 40.0 -10.4 25 0 0.03 T 0 2022-11-16 44 26 35.0 -10.4 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-17 47 23 35.0 -10.0 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-19 46 24 35.0 -9.2 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-15 49 26 37.5 -8.3 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-12 54 24 39.0 -8.1 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-20 50 23 36.5 -7.3 28 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-05 58 29 43.5 -6.5 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-24 47 25 36.0 -6.2 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-22 49 25 37.0 -6.0 28 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-14 49 32 40.5 -5.7 24 0 0.01 0.0 0 2022-11-23 55 20 37.5 -5.1 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-21 53 25 39.0 -4.4 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-25 51 24 37.5 -4.3 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-28 51 24 37.5 -3.3 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-10 53 37 45.0 -2.9 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-13 59 29 44.0 -2.6 21 0 0.08 0.0 0 2022-11-30 51 25 38.0 -2.1 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-26 55 24 39.5 -2.0 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-01 65 35 50.0 -1.7 15 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-03 65 34 49.5 -1.4 15 0 0.02 T 0 2022-11-27 53 30 41.5 0.4 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-06 67 34 50.5 0.9 14 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-29 55 30 42.5 2.1 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-02 67 41 54.0 2.7 11 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-07 67 42 54.5 5.3 10 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-09 70 40 55.0 6.7 10 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-08 71 43 57.0 8.3 8 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-12-17 37 16 26.5 -9.8 38 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-12-18 36 21 28.5 -7.7 36 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-12-16 37 22 29.5 -6.9 35 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-12-23 41 19 30.0 -5.9 35 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-12-13 39 24 31.5 -5.4 33 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-12-15 43 23 33.0 -3.6 32 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-12-14 44 24 34.0 -2.7 31 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-12-19 48 20 34.0 -2.1 31 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-12-20 45 23 34.0 -2.0 31 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-12-21 50 22 36.0 0.0 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-12-24 52 20 36.0 0.1 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-12-25 49 26 37.5 1.7 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-12-03 45 37 41.0 1.8 24 0 0.48 0.0 0 2022-12-01 57 28 42.5 2.7 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-12-12 51 29 40.0 3.0 25 0 T 0.0 0 2022-12-08 50 33 41.5 3.6 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-12-30 47 32 39.5 3.6 25 0 0.02 T 0 2022-12-29 48 32 40.0 4.1 25 0 T T 0 2022-12-09 54 30 42.0 4.4 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-12-11 56 28 42.0 4.8 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-12-22 55 27 41.0 5.1 24 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-12-27 53 29 41.0 5.2 24 0 T 0.0 0 2022-12-10 54 32 43.0 5.6 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-12-26 52 31 41.5 5.7 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-12-04 50 40 45.0 6.1 20 0 0.04 0.0 0 2022-12-28 50 35 42.5 6.7 22 0 0.06 0.0 0 2022-12-07 55 36 45.5 7.4 19 0 0.04 0.0 0 2022-12-02 59 36 47.5 8.0 17 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-12-31 56 32 44.0 8.1 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-12-06 56 39 47.5 9.2 17 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-12-05 60 42 51.0 12.4 14 0 T 0.0 0 2023-01-26 40 19 29.5 -9.0 35 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-01-27 43 17 30.0 -8.7 35 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-01-19 41 21 31.0 -6.7 34 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-01-25 41 25 33.0 -5.4 32 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-01-22 44 22 33.0 -5.0 32 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-01-21 40 26 33.0 -4.9 32 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-01-24 43 26 34.5 -3.8 30 0 T 0.1 0 2023-01-23 38 31 34.5 -3.6 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-01-20 46 25 35.5 -2.3 29 0 T T 0 2023-01-28 53 21 37.0 -1.8 28 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-01-18 44 28 36.0 -1.5 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-01-31 51 25 38.0 -1.2 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-01-03 40 31 35.5 -0.6 29 0 T T 0 2023-01-29 54 23 38.5 -0.4 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-01-04 44 28 36.0 -0.2 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-01-05 46 27 36.5 0.3 28 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-01-07 50 24 37.0 0.6 28 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-01-12 51 24 37.5 0.6 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-01-16 42 34 38.0 0.7 27 0 T T 0 2023-01-30 54 27 40.5 1.4 24 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-01-17 45 33 39.0 1.6 26 0 0.13 T 0 2023-01-13 52 26 39.0 2.0 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-01-08 52 26 39.0 2.5 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-01-14 53 27 40.0 2.9 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-01-09 54 26 40.0 3.4 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-01-02 44 35 39.5 3.5 25 0 0.01 0.0 0 2023-01-06 53 30 41.5 5.2 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-01-11 50 36 43.0 6.2 22 0 T 0.0 0 2023-01-01 50 36 43.0 7.0 22 0 0.17 0.0 0 2023-01-15 50 40 45.0 7.8 20 0 T 0.0 0 2023-01-10 58 32 45.0 8.3 20 0 0.00 0.0 2023-02-16 34 19 26.5 -15.6 38 0 T 0.1 T 2023-02-17 44 17 30.5 -11.8 34 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-02-10 43 21 32.0 -8.9 33 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-02-15 41 25 33.0 -8.9 32 0 0.14 1.0 1 2023-02-09 40 27 33.5 -7.2 31 0 T T 0 2023-02-27 55 21 38.0 -6.8 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-02-11 49 21 35.0 -6.1 30 0 T 0.0 0 2023-02-07 41 31 36.0 -4.3 29 0 0.05 0.6 0 2023-02-02 51 21 36.0 -3.5 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-02-28 57 27 42.0 -3.1 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-02-08 50 25 37.5 -3.0 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-02-23 54 29 41.5 -2.3 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-02-18 53 28 40.5 -2.1 24 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-02-22 55 28 41.5 -2.0 23 0 0.01 T 0 2023-02-26 59 27 43.0 -1.6 22 0 T 0.0 0 2023-02-03 52 25 38.5 -1.2 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-02-14 48 33 40.5 -1.2 24 0 T T 0 2023-02-24 57 29 43.0 -1.0 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-02-01 51 26 38.5 -0.9 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-02-19 51 33 42.0 -0.8 23 0 T 0.0 0 2023-02-06 52 29 40.5 0.3 24 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-02-04 60 26 43.0 3.2 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-02-25 60 35 47.5 3.2 17 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-02-05 63 25 44.0 4.0 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-02-13 60 32 46.0 4.5 19 0 0.12 0.1 0 2023-02-12 61 32 46.5 5.2 18 0 T T 0 2023-02-20 61 36 48.5 5.5 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-02-21 65 34 49.5 6.2 15 0 0.00 0.0 0
  7. I use 1951-2010 for highs, or 1961-2020 as a proxy for modern periods because every area of the US has lows warming at wildly different rates if you look. The highs are much better at teasing out the actual weather pattern and not the regional variation in the global warming signal by month. Locally, March is something like 6 degrees warmer than 100 years ago, but I doubt it is in the Northeast as an example. I'm fairly certain via the Bering Sea Rule we'll have a few cloudy or wet/snowy days in the Southwest at the end of the month. If that's the case, some of the West will finish near normal. I don't think the heat for the West the rest of the month will top the +5 to +10 that is still in place in the Plains even as that falls. October is always super annoying to me, because it tends to change erratically in the middle of the month from the pattern at the start of the month. For the baseline period, I think some little pocket of the Great Basin will be +/-1 or 2 from average, with most of the west +2 to +5 or something, while areas of the East are generally +2 or warmer outside of the deepest parts of the Southeast. Keep in mind though, this is using the older averages which are colder in the East and more similar in the West to modern averages. If I'm being honest - I'm not that worried about October. The main thing is the two competing patterns have shown up - a Western cold pocket and a Southern cold pocket. How they interact is just based on their duration, which is difficult to get correct. But I essentially expect those two cold pockets to compete in most of the coming months. As far as the volcano, 1982 was a Northern Hemisphere volcano (Mexico), and 2022 was a Southern Hemisphere volcano. My premise last year was that Southern Hemisphere volcanoes normally enhance tropical activity, while Northern Hemisphere volcanoes suppress it in the Atlantic, based on a paper I read. But with Tonga being a net global warming event and not a net global cooling event, I assumed it would act more like El Chicon (1982). So my premise is since that basically worked (hurricane season was kind of a dud in 2022), it makes sense that the most recent analog to a Northern Hemisphere volcano would continue to work.
  8. My outlook is out in the general section for anyone curious. The snow pattern in the analog blend is fascinating, but generally areas in Northern New England, by DC, and then in the deep South did OK to pretty well for snow in the East. Best chances will be pretty late though from what I can see, like late February to early March.
  9. That error comes up when data is moved/deleted/discontinued. I've uploaded my winter outlook in the general section for anyone curious. I do have you guys much colder than last winter, but you still kind of get shafted in my analogs. I'm not sure why, but you do tend to have a dry spot in the volcanic El Ninos over the Northeast. Tends to show up in the -PDO El Ninos too.
  10. -2.11 PDO for September. https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO It's more directly/strongly correlated to US temps than El Nino or La Nina. Also more "extreme" in the abstract than the El Nino currently.
  11. I've uploaded my winter forecast for anyone curious. Last year I had the West pretty cold. It's a pretty different set of circumstances this year, but in some ways it may not be too different. I hate how long these damned seasonal forecasts get. I made mine 30 pages this year, and many of them are just pictures with no text. It's much easier to show than to explain over and over. Anyway, topic link is here -
  12. I've uploaded my outlook for 2023-24. Here is the link: https://www.scribd.com/document/676713540/2023-24-Winter-Outlook General themes: I matched each three month period starting Feb-Apr to various years in the past to build my analogs, and then rolled the blend forward. I built those analogs with El Nino following La Nina, -PDO, -QBO, volcanic, high solar years in the abstract. I have this as a 28.0C (+1.5C ish) El Nino in winter. Premise is the -PDO look wins through Nov maybe early Dec when it is more correlated to temps in the US than El Nino. Then in Dec, record/near record hot Nino 4 is more correlated than Nino 3.4 or the PDO to US temps so that wins. After that, ENSO mostly wins, but with some input from the -PDO. On net, the winter time -PDO is a wet signal for KY/TN and a cold signal for the Northwest. So I dragged the cold somewhat west of its usual placement, and the analogs shift the dry zone that normally sets up somewhere east of the Ozarks and west of the Blue Ridge Mountains. Outlook includes monthly temperature maps, snow maps, and I tried to explain how I "sanity check" my analogs by looking at what the precipitation pattern looks like in the tropics v. what the matching MJO pattern looks like and how the MJO pattern matches US temp profiles. I also have a slide with the 500 mb pattern for July-Sept rolled forward to Dec-Feb, and another slide with a look back at how that went last year. Last year was a good outlook overall for the season (had a severe March, following a cold West, very hot East look for winter), not so great by month though. Suspect this year will be similar in the sense that the seasonal look is better than my monthly looks.
  13. 1994-95 is when all the sulfur fell out of the sky from what I've seen. So the cooling / aerosol effect vanished all at once for a period of rapid warming. Here is a quick look at why I'm optimistic for Southern snow this year. All of these dates are "clusters" in my analog group, i.e. periods when the same date shows up across multiple analog years for seeing measurable snow in Albuquerque. It's like...13 periods. Surely some of those have to be big storms for other areas? By the way, the Bering Sea Rule implies that the first date could verify. Big system south of Kamchatka on 10/10 should pass over the Southwest US in 17-21 days per the correlation point rule. You can see the quiet spell around 3/1 plus or minus two weeks. That's my target period for big eastern storms. It'll be in the transition from healthy El Nino to La Nina in Summer, so "weak El Nino conditions" and/or Modoki influence, with the least interference from the -PDO. You also have the standard MJO / harmonic signature in the snow data in the analogs, at 45-day separation between events for the italicized, bold, and underlined events. You can see though...1972-73 was awesome. Shame it's not a better analog. Oct 29-31 (2009, 1991) Nov 12-15 (1972, 1991, 1997) Nov 24-28 (1972, 1982) Dec 8-12 (1972, 1982, 1997, 2009) Dec 20-21 (1951, 1991, 1997) Dec 26-30 (1972, 1982, 1991) Jan 9-13 (1972, 1991, 1997) Jan 25-31 (1972, 1982) Feb 3-4 (1982, 1997) Feb 15-18 (1972, 1997) Mar 13-20 (1951, 1972, 1982, 2009) Mar 24 (1972, 2009) Mar 29-30 (1972, 1997)
  14. One of the more fascinating things about the big volcano + El Nino blend is that they all seem to feature an unusual (for an El Nino anyway) dry spot in the Northeast. It's not just the recent eruptions either. So 1991-92 and 1982-83 have the dry patch, but years like 1963-64 that also had tropical eruptions of lesser magnitude seem to feature it too. It's not like 1991/1982/1963 are particularly similar El Ninos, or in similar background states for other features. So I do think it's somehow tied to the ITCZ getting messed up to the north/south of the usual spot from volcanic activity.
  15. The precipitation pattern on the Canadian for the winter has been bugging me for a while. It does resemble 1951-52, 2004-05, 2006-07 though. Greatest concentration of wetness is West of 180W here at the equator, with precip from Australia into the Indian Ocean as the greatest dryness concentration. That's what the Canadian shows too. It's a psuedo MJO 6-7 look, mostly 6 (very wet west of 180W, dry by Indonesia into the Indian Ocean, a streak of rainfall into the Pacific at 120W), which matches what you get from 1951-52, 2004-05, 2006-07. I don't think 1951, 2004, 2006 is the right look per-se, but this is kind of how I sanity check stuff.
  16. I was referring to December in my post. But if the month is +5 or +8, it is pretty hard to have even a seasonal winter, for Dec-Feb, that's all. I'm relatively optimistic for the South actually for snow. I think it's kind of a warm pattern when dry with cold storms, but we'll see.
  17. By the way, we're still a buck short and a day late compared to the strongest El Ninos even using the conventional methods. Nino 3.4 was 28.0C in August in 2015, we're just getting there now. I really don't see this event getting much stronger, if at all, at the surface. When I run comparisons of the last 100 years locally, the only strong El Nino that is consistently similar for temps and precip is 1982. So I'm assuming we are only around 28.0C for Dec-Feb in Nino 3.4. The strongest events are closer to 29.0C. The similarity testing I do for various US locations shows that the stronger El Ninos are much better matches for precipitation patterns than for temp patterns. That's why I'm dulling 1982 with 1951 in my outlook and primarily using the other years for spatial precip matches.
  18. Without a strong Modoki signature, the warmth in Nino 4 is an extraordinarily powerful warm signal for you guys in the East. >29.0C Nino 4 in December >29.25C in Nino 4 in the East >29.25C in Nino 4, no Modoki signature. Keep in mind...we're 29.8C now. Could theoretically hit 30C+ for the first time with this event in Nino 4. Trend seems to be more pronounced recently too - like it doesn't seem to work below 29.0C.
  19. One thing I'm toying with for my outlook is the relative influence of the PDO and ENSO on US temps. I'm going to put these here so we can see which wins out monthly. The PDO isn't important in Dec/Mar for eastern temps regardless of the phase. But it is fairly important in the other months. For October, the -PDO signature (strong for warmth Plains) is winning out, even as the pattern has flipped. El Nino favors the opposite (cold East of the Continental Divide) but only weakly. Nino 4 over 29/29.5C is just about as reliable as a warm signal as possible for the East in December. Here is ENSO -
  20. 1982 is still a pretty solid match for precipitation patterns in the US with this event. You can blend it with years like 1951, 2012, 2021 and get similar results, or you can use anti-logs. Either way it's relatively easy to get a matching blend. 1982 by itself is really close enough that it doesn't need another year added.
  21. You guys will do fine for snow this year. I just don't expect too much cold even in the snowier part of the pattern. I'm expecting some pretty big ice storms across large areas of the US as well. I think you'll have a lot of setups in the wetter systems where it is cold enough for part of the storm, but not the entirety. The good news is I think a few of them will go rain to snow, which at least to me is better than snow to rain.
  22. The El Ninos I like for winter generally have the start of October cold snap in the same place as this year. I take that as a good sign. Although some of the other El Ninos do too - 1976, 2002 for instance. But 1951, 1953, 1976, 1982, 2002 are all decent for October so far. Will change obviously. Fairly normal -PDO look so far. The +20-25 in Minnesota is certainly in the right spot - and it's hard to imagine it burning off by 10/31, which means the correlation will be "right". Minneapolis is still +15 or something through 10/5. All remaining days would need to be colder than -3 v. averages there just to go back to average. Also, the Euro plume for Nino 3.4 has backed off some more. More likely than not it won't get to +2.0C in any given month now. I still like +1.5C (28.0C) for winter, but I could see 1.7C or something too.
  23. I have all the main ideas / justifications for my forecast in my head but I haven't finished writing them out yet. For now, here is Accuweather's outlook. It's pretty similar to what I'm expecting, although I'm a bit more bullish on snow in some areas. I'm also warmer than this in the Southeast/Southwest and a little colder in the Northwest. I don't really expect any part of the US to be more than 1F below average. I'm basically on board with the El Nino turning into a Modoki - but I think its too late for winter. Likely a Feb (earliest) to Apr thing. But since the event should weaken east to west, the early (likely terrible) guess is we get a major east-based La Nina next year, which will be a horrible winter for the West, and probably pretty cold and snowy in the East, following something like 250-350 Atlantic Ace and hurricanes into November. https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/us-winter-forecast-for-the-2023-2024-season/1583853
  24. Monte Carlo simulation is actually a pretty good way for them to handle the MJO. It's pretty noisy as a signal. It's much simpler just to use the 60 and 70 percent composites for warm/cool, wet/dry on the MJO site. The real question I suppose is why no one reads what the CPC stuff actually means before quoting it. The placement of the greatest precipitation anomaly for winter on the Canadian is actually reminiscent of phases 6-7, both of which are warm in the East. Of course any time I say something like this, it's ignored or some random idiot on here yells at me on my Twitter for a few days. The centering of the enhanced moisture never really gets east of 180W in a given month, which is not a particularly cold match for the East on the MJO composites. The real MJO/RMM stuff tends to have little motion or conflicting patterns in stronger El Ninos, so I'm just using the general look for illustration. I don't think the actual "MJO" will be a main issue this winter. Keep in mind, this is what last year looked like on net - it was a clear phase four-five look (top right, i.e. cold West), with pronounced wetness by Indonesia sandwiched East & West by dryness in Nino 4 and the Indian Ocean. So yes, this stuff does have some skill.
  25. A blend of 1982/2012 with 1980 taken out to amplify it was actually ~close (B ish) globally for 500 mb in July-September. If you roll that period forward, you end up with a look that is pretty similar, albeit tilted, to my analogs for winter. That said, I don't expect the fruition of this pattern to be as extreme as shown for all three months. It should be a dulled version for DJF, with only one major severe period. That's been my thinking for a while. I was pretty happy with 1984/2012 as a matching Summer blend last year, and that worked OK for winter. This year, I think 1982/1951 is a better blend for temps/precip overall, but 2012/1982 is probably better at 500 mb, and the results are similar anyway.
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