StormchaserChuck!

22 minutes ago, Rvarookie said:

Is it spring yet? 

March 2012 coming up as analog if it can hold (2011 I think is #1 Dec(10)-Nov so far)

really warm-feel rain. coldest 500mb anomaly temps inthe N. Hemisphere. 

3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm more optimistic about this winter than I was back in September. It looks like we can probably make some hay through the end of December. Probably one of those "near normal snowfall / slightly above normal temp" winters.

Where I live, I'm expecting 35" of snow(forecast), average is 32". 

Love the '95 Dec analog, not Jan '96 though. 

One more https://imgur.com/a/PMELSPi (if not this year, next year)

Subsurface is more warm than cold anomalies, despite Moderate La Nina at the surface, extending down to south, South America

https://imgur.com/a/aOfDVWw

This is going to hit +30-45 days, Dec 15-31, as impacting the N. hemisphere pattern (warm ENSO-subsurface)-probably +PNA or -NAO(EC trough).  

Love it raindancewx. US is the superstition to lead, but beneath all the depths is real primary. 

Dec 2010 was the only Dec that matched 2021 by 1.5x #2. This correlation has carried us through the year, and I think should continue to match 11-12 as a winter analog. We have also be reversing 500mb anomalies for the last 2 years. Put those 2 together and you have a nice forecast position. 

https://imgur.com/a/5AToS86

https://imgur.com/a/R2UC3k7

(hopefully everyone can see this)

Holy +NAO

https://imgur.com/a/NlbGv2s

+3SD

https://imgur.com/a/0P4MnCm

What I find interesting, is there is more blue(cold) than warm on the map [which is rare].

+NAO at this time strongly correlates with +PNA December (cold anomaly theme) continuum. fits what has happened since September as well. 

Look at this. 

flurries?

40 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

How does a +nao help us here?

This cold map is almost entirely driven by the poleward E Pac ridge driving cold air south

Jet stream is running more west->east vs south/north orientation(anomalies). 30-60N is the mass of the whole cold air mass (13-14,14-15)

+NAO.. why I think this Winter will be good

yay!

2 hours ago, The Ole Bucket said:

looks beautiful. the air is cleaner these days. snow falls more pixelated

High pressure

14 hours ago, nj2va said:

So it begins…

-EPO's with +NAO's have been trending colder in shorter range (NAO underperforming index)

(I made a thread on this threat 2 days ago but it was deleted..)

17 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

 

I also live down the street. 

+PNA Dec coming to fruition.. I'm excited

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html

Fortunately, a +NAO Nov 15-25 correlates with a +PNA Dec and Winter, vs being a progression toward a warm solution. 

Yeah, this looks good

I made a thread for the threat earlier, but it was deleted. 

The two -PNA's that we have had since April have been secondary(bigger main pattern drivers at those times). It's been a real pattern shift starting in April. 

We are opposite last year 500mb anomaly at -0.85.

#2 is 0.49

#3 is 0.44

#4 is 0.42

strong 2-3 SD +NAO Nov 15-25.. since 2000, 6 analogs match

1 more post.. strong 2-3 SD +NAO Nov 15-25.. since 2000, 6 analogs match

fits +PNA theme

9 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Too bad QBO is rising or would possibly be a great match. 

The last 3 +QBO/La Nina's have been -NAO though. I don't know how 2 strong steering currents to the PV could displace so much at 500mb without 10mb warming.. Pacific would neutralize/become unfavorable I think if NAO goes negative this Winter. .. or maybe the whole thing just washes as has been the trend since 2013,2016,2018,..etc

Dec '95 analog