Daniel Boone

2 hours ago, Jed33 said:

Earlier this morning we had a full on snow shower roll through most of the county. It looked ominous as it came over clinch mountain and rolled into the valley. Unfortunately I didn’t get to make a picture or video as I was driving at the time. Lasted maybe 5-10min, but the flakes were quarter sized and bigger.

Same here. Particularly North and Eastern sections of the County. 

1 hour ago, Matthew70 said:

Sadly Taiwan has been hit by 2 back to back major earthquakes. 7.5 & 7.4 

More end times events ramping up. 

Check out the live eagle cam at big bear . 3-5" hr Rates at least. 

https://www.friendsofbigbearvalley.org/eagles/

Check out the live eagle cam at big bear in SOCAL. Snowing 3-5" hr rates 

https://www.friendsofbigbearvalley.org/eagles/

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

Pretty strong signal for cold and accumulating NWFS late next week. I could see higher elevations getting 2-4 easy. 

Not surprised. I hate Spring cold. 

On 3/25/2024 at 2:13 PM, WEATHER53 said:

Did he become confrontational?

Surely not, lol

On 3/11/2024 at 8:32 AM, PowellVolz said:

Interesting… yesterday after church I started clearing out two landscaping beds. I’m redoing them and reshaping the beds itself. Underneath a Japanese Maple I’ve got some “big blue” which is basically miniature monkey grass that spreads together and makes a nice thick ground cover that gets purple blossoms in late summer. So I was transplanting that yesterday and ran across two white(ish) gray baby snakes alive and kicking hiding in the 6” grass. I’m not a snake expert by no means but this seems a little early in the season. Unfortunately one of them I chopped in half but the other I relocated to a creek that’s 150 yards away. Thoughts?


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Sounds like water snake. Although, could be black. Their is a small breed that old timers used to call a Thunderhead. It was either black or gray with a white ring around the Neck. 

5 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah and the Euro is being really aggressive also. Definitely looks like a bug cool down.

Maybe it'll kill them bugs out before they get too bad 

6 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

That is the year.  I must have not been reading closely!!!   Once we get over 50, all posts look new anyway!  LOL j/k - sorta not.  I don't know that we actually got full leaf coverage that year in NE TN.  The trough looks over the eastern half of the country on the 12z GFS.  The main axis looks over the NE, and fairly cool/progressive here.  If that thing were to buckle, look out....

Yep. Know what you mean man.  Sort of like watching an old classic show you've seen before that's like watching it for the first time. That's one good thing about being a Senior Citizen I guess along with the Senior discounts of course, lol

55 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

For now......it looks like the worst of the cold is over the Northeast.  If a storm were to deepen along the Coast(even if it doesn't snow here), that would be a concern.   The last two weeks of March have to be watched for cold.  Overall, the Weeklies last night were much warmer for April.  Those late season cold snaps are tough to predict....just takes one really strong cold front on the heels of a cutter or coastal along w/ some clear nights, and we could get a prolonged freeze even during a warm spell.  Several years ago, I. remember the leaves on the trees up here getting bitten and falling off during maybe May? 

Yeah, mentioned that in a post above. Actually killed the Leaves on the Trees. May 2007.

3 hours ago, *Flash* said:

March 2007 was very warm, akin to 2012. A year later in 2008, we had a notable snow event March 7-8. About half a foot in my current locale! One of those winters saved by the bell at the last window of opportunity. 

Yeah, I think the 2008 warmth was late March. I lost my Records so going on my antique memory. I first thought the April snow was 07 then thought 08. So, probably was 07. 

2 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

 

My memory is terrible but spring 2016, do you remember the overall pattern? We had a very warm March. So warm that I remember golf courses were almost green by the end of March and then we had about a week long freeze right around Easter that wiped out a lot of Azaleas, crept myrtles and fruiting trees. Hoping we don’t repeat that spring. (If my memory has the right year but I’m almost positive it was the same year as the GSM park fires).


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Yeah. Also remember 2008 a very warm March that transferred to a very cold early April with heavy Snow Shower's the 8th. March 07 was mild to then a hard late Freeze occured in mid May that killed alot of the Leaves on the Tree's. Likewise, after the very mild Winter of 01-02 late Season Freezes occurred on the 22nd and 23rd of May with Temps recorded in the upper 20's. Needless to say, foliage and vegetation damage occured. 

On 3/4/2024 at 6:21 AM, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Beautiful fantasy storm on the 6z GFS: (unless you live in Kingsport or Halls)

 

 

GFS has been trying to to create a strong storm around 16 - 19th for a few runs now. Heck, I'd just love to see a strong storm take that track, lol. 

Just pull that thing 50-100 miles further East. 

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Some photos from recent trips on the Cumberland mts:

White Rocks above the Powell Valley looking toward Daniel Boone land:

 

 

Sand Cave in Cumberland Gap NHP, waterfall:

 

 

Piney River Falls and trout:

 

 

Thanks for sharing man !  The area has hiking trails, four wheeler trails and just west on the Mountain you can follow a Trail into Hensley Settlement along the KY/VA Border. An old , once occupied(until 1950's) Family Settlement that has a Schoolhouse and other Structures of which are Maintained. It sits at an elevation of 3300ft. It takes you back in time. Very Beautiful place on a Plateau there! 

  The Sand Cave is a nice Site as well. Cudjo's Cave was a nice Attraction that featured a large Cave System into Cumberland/Stone Mountain. Sadly, it closed many Year's ago.

12 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Cansips did really well for Feb.  One error was a minor trough over the SE but it didn’t go whole hog.  It’s MJO portrayal was pretty stellar - warm phases just looking at its Lower 48 temp profile. 
 

Again, at this range...one won’t see details in the pattern.  The overall DJF looks right.  The DJF for this recent winter will be warm, but unless someone looks, folks won’t see Jan where record lasting snowfall was on the ground in Knoxville.  The Cansips does have a warm bias, but one simply has to learn model biases.

And LR ext modeling missed only for Feb.  It did well for December and January.  67% accuracy for at range is pretty decent...better than decent.  Again, following modeling of chaotic energy systems is not for the faint of heart.   The only way to get better is to use them.  A lot of what we use (even though this is a public forum) is pretty state of the art.  I am not going to use a Commodore 64 just because the new Lenovo is a bit buggy.   The storm that we track during January...go look how far out we tracked that storm.  We might have been tracking it from 10+ days.  Fairly amazing at how far we have come in twenty years.  Just wait until AI gets better.

There are going to be modeling busts.  I have been doing this a long time, and it is going to happen.  That is just an understood variable with this hobby.

 

Yeah, Cansips did a good Job for February. The IO/MC really worked havoc on most guidance and our Winter overall really. 

38 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Nice 60 degree days. 

Guaranteed to happen. Just when it's just warm enough to be cold rain the Pattern will go Classic Winter Storm mode. 

Truckee California : https://www.tahoeweathercam.com/mthardware.html

I know we had the great 10 day stretch in January but, the Winter rated as the 3 months of Winter period will still go down as a mild Winter. In area's that Seasonal Snowfall Averages have dropped so low , it will go down as a decent Winter on that premise and on the coldest stretch in several years. Go back to the Averages 30 year's ago and the area's that reached or exceeded their Average this Winter would have been below on Snowfall.

   Bigbald made a good point irt what I'm conveying. I'm sure glad we got that true Winter stretch as it would have been really hard for snow lover's to take if we hadn't. 

1 hour ago, weathertree4u2 said:

Yea, pretty similar to the last several but hey, did have that week in January! 

Yeah, at least it beat last year and the last few as far as an extended cold spell. 

5 hours ago, Matthew70 said:

Well I say, winter is now over with except for a couple of cold spells and the normal blackberry Dogwood winters.  Hopefully we don’t have a killing freeze. Except for one week in January this winter was a complete sham..  

Yep. Many, because of that Week to 10 Days cold spell will say we had a pretty bad Winter this year, lol.

    Winters have been so non Winter for the last few overall, particularly last Winter, that folks have been desensitized to what a Normal Winter used to be. It's been another mild Winter as far as the Winter as a whole. 

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think the rotation of the Earth has slowed a little.. we are seeing more High pressure systems. land vs water friction also seems to be a little greater (cold coming more from Canada vs 50/50 low cold).

May lend to the Earth standing still. Hmm.. The day the Earth stood still. Never watched that Movie. 

      Just carrying on with you man 

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think in some cases I didn’t weight the right factors enough and I didn’t correctly calculate how some would influence the pattern. 
 

I under valued the PDO. Severely. I also thought the pacific base state would mute the very strong basin wide nino into a moderate basin wide nino. Which is a good pattern. But what happened is we got a hybrid with the worst of both. The Nina like base state showed up with a western pac ridge. This acted to shift the Nino trough east so that it acted more like an east based Nino. It also supercharged the jet due to the compression between the western pac ridge and the trough to its northeast. This  continually flooded the US with pac puke. It also shifted the jet north and ran destructive interference with attempts at blocking.  
 

In summary we got some of the shitty long wave features of a Nina but with enhanced warmth of a Nino.  

Good analysis man ! 

6 hours ago, dwagner88 said:

60 and sunny in Chattanooga, 32 and snowing in Wise. That’s a long ways from here but still a huge difference in temperature. 

Wound up with Snow Shower's here. Couple quick heavy ones that created a lt dusting that melted fast. 

4 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Maybe When we had the SSW earlier in Jan it effected the atmospheric Rossby wave train to some degree. around this time frame there was also a real strong Equatorial Rossby Wave,so the balance got thrown off with the pattern,so this could possibly be why our pattern went to junk seemingly

 

Yeah, I've been thinking along those lines as a possibility. 

4 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah but as we've seen this season there has been a late shift south the last 24 hours before an event so we will see. We could be shafted also lol.

Yeah, hopefully that'll be the case.