Itstrainingtime

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Posts posted by Itstrainingtime


  1. 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

    No doubt but I feel like there is even more to it as even in a pure transient  pattern we would get lucky every now and then.  The Long Range surface maps are constantly wrong in the 7-10 range.  One could have made a fortune betting on PA snow storms 10 days out turning into Upper NY snow storms by verification time. 

     

    PS-The "pattern" and results form last year were basically the same as the results form this year as it pertains to eventual low progression but the HUGE difference this year has been the lack of blocking/CAD/cold air that withstands the intrusions. We had 1/2 dozen of snow to rain or drizzle storms last year. 

    Bingo


  2. 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

    Well today's GFS suggests February is going to end with most days in the 50's in the LSV and on and off rain but one feature I thought interesting was the rare "clipper" it shows next weekend.  Beggars cannot be choosers so I will take anything showing a low going under us with cold air near.  History this year continues to suggest anything coming out of the Lwr Miss Valley is too high of a cut risk. 

    And that's all because of how transient the pattern has been. If it's not perfectly timed, forget about it. SE crew is benefiting from that timing today. 

    Nut's image above looks pretty good...it just has no staying power. In one day, out the next...


  3. For southern tier county peeps, this morning has that retro 70s look...filtered sunshine through high cirrus with mid level clouds to the south. Almost looks like there might be a southern snowstorm. :) I saw this sky all too frequently in the 70s and early 80s. Back then all I could do was to try and will it north...never worked out, lol 

    • Like 1

  4. 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

    @Itstrainingtime I think you not posting the Canadian snow map for next Thursday, especially for you and @daxx  is like a sort of forced deprivation.  There have been so many snow maps this year in the 6-10" range but this is sort of rare for this specific season.

     

     

    It is forced...though I can't remember the last time I posted a snow map. 

    3 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

    And this is the difference between Roundtrip and Blue Knob. Blue Knob is an absolute iceberg no matter what time of the season or how the season has been. 

    Hey, my daughter is the skier of my family and so I rely on her feedback, but she swears that Roundtop does grooming better than even some of the "big boys" in the Poconos. 


  5. 29 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

    Maybe someone can clarify, but I think the density of man made is greater than natural, giving it more resiliency.  I know when I skied, I preferred the real deal....but man made is better than nothing at all.  

    Not sure if this is all of it, but Roundtop will make as much as 6"-8" of snow on a very good night. That means no wind or a slight breeze with a W-NW component. That snow is beat down incessantly by the cats running up and down the mountain overnight. That process continues night after night, conditions permitting so that it's essentially forming a glacier. 

    To illustrate better - during a really good week of snowmaking when they can blow 24/7 they might make 50-60" of snow on select trails. When all is said and finished, that becomes a 15"-20" base. But that 15"-20" base is nothing like snow cover in our yards, it is packed and packed and packed until it's frozen solid. Then the groom puts  nice veil of corduroy on top so the skier isn't sliding on ice. 

    Also, Roundtop benefits from having the vast majority of the terrain face north - they don't lose much on a sunny, dry day. High temp/high dew/fog/rain is what kills their base. Barring that they can keep going even in the skimpiest years of falling snow. 


  6. 19 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

    I'm telling you, March/April/May will feature a setup that's favorable for cold/snow, but because it's April/May, all we'll get is 51 damp, 47 degree days out of a possible 61 days. That's how things seem here anymore.

    Actually...yes. If some of the long range guidance is correct we're gonna get our perfect winter pattern...well into spring. 

    BTW - I think you were the first in here to call for a crapfest winter when most of the rest of us were singing some good vibes right along with Chris Janson.


  7. 10 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

    For those looking for a little hope for winter to start/return...

    here is the EOM on current guidance.  AO/NAO both are coming down as we enter the last week of Feb, so that to me supports the return to colder in the east.  Only fly I see is the PNA also trending to Neut from a +1ish setup, but to me the cold looks legit and seems to fit the base state.  Ens guidance seems to have lost the cutoff in the SW which would have cooked us once again.  EPS has been known to do that, but it seems to initially dump towards the SW then is progressive and keeps the 500's moving along. to what we see below.  I'd not feel comfy about anything locking in, but a legit window is there IMO.

     

    gfs-ens_T850a_us_43.png

    ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_11.png

    Seems like the very end of February/beginning of March offers at least some legitimate hope...


  8. 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

    I think the thing that struck me was the way everyone was talking about the cold night last Friday as if it was special...and it really was just a normal cold night at least LSV wise.  Below average cold but something that usually happens several times every winter.  It was balls to wall cold up in Northern PA.  At my place we were actually colder during one of the earlier cold nights this year...they have been so few though.

    Yep - it's all about what you've become accustomed to. And sadly what we've become accustomed to this winter is mild days and and even milder nights. Normal cold suddenly feels extra-cold. 

    • Like 1

  9. 24 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

    On the subject of the large departures this month, MDT sits at +7.9 as of today.  Looks like some normal or slightly below coming up late week  then a string of 4-5 days with double digit or close positive departures this weekend and next week followed by slightly above normal to end the month...so unless the MR guidance is way off we probably will not finish the month with a double digit positive departure.  Getting up to 60 a couple times next week is going to keep it high but probably stay in that 7-9+ range.  Still noteworthy but not historic.

     

     

    Thanks for digging that information up! 

    In my mind I'm not going to remember this winter for the abnormally warm days, it's been the warm nights that will really stand out. Very few nights below 20 and none in the single digits. That speaks to how cloudy and damp it's been more than anything else. If we would have had a run of sunny warm days...then we'd be talking about historic instead of noteworthy. 


  10. 2 minutes ago, Superstorm said:


    I think a moderate snow in October is tougher to come by.

    In April I think the cold air is at least more readily available in Canada.


    .

    I guess, I've already been outvoted by both you and @daxx so I'll concede. My hangup on '82 was really about the temp and wind...21 degrees at noon in Lancaster on April 6th? 9' drifts? Regardless...good luck seeing either of those events happen again. 


  11. 11 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

    That one is easy for me to remember.  I got 2" from it (north Jersey)...and it was just 2 days after my 20th birthday.  You'll have a harder time remembering further back....but before this one became the earliest snowfall for me, October 18th, 1972 I also got about 2" of snow.  I was in 8th grade.  I vividly remember all of the Maple trees which were in full color, totally smothered in snow and drooping down low.

    As for April 6, 1982, that was a Tuesday.  The day before it was sunny and in the upper 40's.  It took an incredibly anomalous deep trough to produce that storm.  The thicknesses were down around 510dm, which is insane for April.  That's what was able to keep temps in the 20's with sun on Wednesday.  I also got 9" out of that one.  I dropped to 16 degrees overnight going into the 7th.  Central Park broke 2 record lows for both the 6th and 7th when the temp before and after midnight reached 21 degrees there.  Great stuff indeed!

    I was spending my lunch hour reading about 1982...many long-time mets consider that to be #1 for rare northeast blizzards. And it was a true blizzard meeting every criteria and then some. I know that March 2018 was incredible and historic but you really need to remember 1982 to appreciate it for what it was. My goodness, I was reading some articles and I was getting goosebumps...I think even I was underestimating how incredible the storm was! For any time! I was wrong about it being 25 at noon that Tuesday - a little digging and I discovered that Lancaster was 21 degrees at high noon...

    That storm was the first time that a Blizzard Warning was issued for NYC, I read. :)

    I remember being transported by snowmobile to my family doctor during the winter of 1972 but couldn't tell you when. I was 6 but remember all of our back roads being drifted shut, so my dad hailed our neighbor and off on his sled to the doctor in Columbia I went! 


  12. 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

    That looks awesome. I was only 5 back in ‘82, so I don’t remember that one, but I wouldn’t mind a repeat in about 7 weeks!

    I thought I saw if posted somewhere that there was another more minor event in early April of 82 in the northeast? Did that one impact CTP as well ?

    If so I have no recollection. Another crazy weather event was on 10/9/1979 when the first game of the World Series was snowed out at Memorial Stadium in Baltimore. I remember this because I had tickets. :) For the record, I received 1" of snow that morning. Earliest measurable snow that I remember by a long shot. 


  13. 7 minutes ago, daxx said:

    Yea much later date but 2018 doubled that amount.  If you go back and look at that thread, you actually posted it was record snowfall for Lancaster county.

    100% correct buddy! Both storms were historic and one of a kind for sure - as an enthusiast and after some reflection I'd rate 1982 higher for one reason...how often is it 25 degrees midday on April 6th? The snow/wind/temp trio produced epic drifting for any month let alone April. I was a junior in high school and remember going outside in the middle of the day thinking to myself that it had the look of early January. It was incredible stuff!

    I often wonder which is more anomalous...and I'd love to get @MAG5035 thoughts on this - is getting 5.5" of snow in Lancaster a bigger deal on October 29th or getting 9" of snow on April 6th? I think about that kind of stuff a lot. :) 

    • Like 1

  14. 20 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

    My take on things is that we have a small group in this forum compared to others so all discussion is bunched into one thread. The MA forum has a banter, long range,  current obs, and even a panic room for people to vent how crappy things have been.   Overall I think we have a nice balance of posters that add different values and personalities.  I wouldn’t be against having a separate banter type thread as nut had expressed before.   However I see the counter to this as even this current thread will get cold and you’ll see a 12hrs since last post.   If you don’t want a separate banter thread, then the expectation should be “all things go” and deal with whatever is posted.   

    Just to add - the vast majority of us love snow. We love it in a special way, a way in which when we have winters like this one it has an affect on us. I freely admit that this season has frustrated me to the point where I need to coach myself to stay positive. It seems silly to allow the weather to have such a profound influence in one's life but I know that for many of us...there's at least some element of truth in that. With that said...

    ...As I stated on Saturday, I went back and reread every post going back 3.5 months. Given the level of futility in comparison to normal, this thread has remained remarkably positive throughout. Sure...frustration and disappointment have surfaced. We're human beings and this is place to come and feel safe sharing thoughts, opinions and the like with people that are "like us." But if others here are as disappointed by the turn of events as I've been; well, we've all done one heckuva job at keeping the ship afloat.

    As for having banter threads and other 'off topic" threads...I don't know that we have the volume of posters to support that. It might be a good idea...just don't know if we can logistically support it. 


  15. 7 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

    Yes, the snow maps can have wild swings from run to run.

    I was talking more about adding value with other maps like some of us do from time to time.

    You give great analysis & are the best poster on here by far !

    My issue the last few days has been with the negative posters that add no value to the forum. We have mostly a good group, but some other regions are unbearable.

    I think that one good snow event would be just what we need to get this place going well again!

    Even though I personally do not like long-range snow maps at all, (they are garbage) I respect you, your opinions and there's certainly nothing "wrong" with posting weather maps in a weather forum. Your optimism is unmatched in this forum. :)

    What I don't understand is why you continue to post about negative posters in this thread when you immediately follow up by saying that those posters aren't in this thread? If the negative posters are elsewhere, than that doesn't need to keep coming up in this thread. You have repeatedly stated this for the past week or two. (at least)

    MAG made a call out a week or so ago specifically stating that no one in this thread was being negative. It's not just a few of us saying that.