TXHawk88

Surprise lake effect band, produced a good dusting in a short time. I’ll take it, was not expecting that tonight. 

Not to get too ahead of ourselves but early next week has been looking interesting on GFS & Euro for a couple days. Finally the GFS & Canadian are showing winter precip, it has been showing cold rain with temps in the low 30’s. Not going to go too far off into the weeds because we are still 190~ hours out and a ton will change. 
 

The pattern looks pretty favorable to what would normally give us our best shot at winter weather. We don’t have a crazy warm up before the next cold front comes through next Friday - Saturday 

Just happy to have stuff to watch over the next 10 days. Good luck to everyone tomorrow. 

With every new model run I’m losing hope on seeing anything decent expect some freezing drizzle here in DFW. Every model is coming in drier and drier, terrible waste of some very cold temps. Realistically still have 6 weeks to get something exciting this winter. 

Looks like they’re going enhanced risk which makes sense the way things have trended. Crazy that 3 days ago it was just a general thunderstorm risk. 

Been watching as well, not super optimistic with this system. Maybe we can get lucky and get a dusting N of I-20 in the evening. End of the month beginning of February is starting to get that look though, so hopefully that trend continues. February is usually when we score around here, hope this will be the 3rd year in a row. 

Finally snowing pretty heavily here in Arlington, it’s a shame we couldn’t flip over to snow sooner. 

For what it’s worth 0z & 6z HRRR have really bumped up the snow totals for DFW and brought freezing rain and sleet totals down a bit.

4 hours ago, Powerball said:

Per the SPC, there were at least 2 fatalities yesterday.

One was caused by the tornado in Douglasville, GA that caused a tree to fall on top of someone, and the other was a semi-truck driver that was caught on the tornado that crossed I-35 just outside of Waxahachie, TX.

11 hours ago, Witness Protection Program said:

Truck driver in the rig that flipped and knocked out the I-35e median has died.

I was there last night, I was told by DPS & other first responders there were no fatalities, a couple of the guys were in rough shape but everyone was conscious, breathing and talking when they were loaded up on an ambulance, everyone was expected to survive. At least that’s what I was told and I haven’t seen anything saying anyone didn’t make it, which is honestly a miracle! 

13 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

FWD has a band of lower snow totals cutting through, you guessed it, DFW. Dry slot imminent at this rate

I can’t wait to hear from you when this doesn’t bust and we all finally get a good storm. When you’ve got 6 inches in your back yard. We’re less than 24 hours out from guaranteed snow we’re not getting shut out.

11 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

Good chance FWD has egg on its face come Monday afternoon

The chances of this busting in a big way are extremely slim as we get closer. Are we getting a foot off snow? No! But the DFW region getting 3-5 inches is an extremely strong probability much better odds than us getting nothing. 

I feel your pain, we’ve been burned so many times in the past, this doesn’t feel like one of them. You keep trying to find the negatives, we’re all going to see some legitimate winter weather! this is hands down the best set up I’ve seen since I moved here in 2012.
 

Enjoy it! 

It’s snowing in Grand Prairie, I feel confident we might pull up 1-2 inches here, radar looks decent. 

The 06z NAM is actually a really good run for the DFW metro, it has 2-3 inches all the way up to parts of Denton & Collin counties. HRRR gets worse every run it appears and we'd be lucky to end up with a dusting. Don't know what to trust at this point but I am not very confident, I've seen this same story play out far too many times, and it's never the ending we want.

Almost that time where models are pointless and we will just need to start watching the radar and obs and see what happens. 

I feel the same way almost everyone else here does, it has been sooo long since DFW has a had a true "slam dunk" winter weather event that we weren't sweating until the last minute. To twist the knife just a bit more, even the Houston suburbs have had better winter weather luck over the last 5 years. 

15 hours ago, bubba hotep said:

At least we have the Canadian on our side... 

 

Lonnnnng time lurker, first time poster.

06Z GFS on board with getting some wintery precip, into N Texas around the 20th as well. Hopefully this trend continues.