JerseyWx

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Pretty typical for April. We won't break out of this for at least a month

But I'm even talking about the pattern in general since last summer.  We get a couple nice days, then pay for it with crap for several days.  Barely used the pool last year because almost every weekend had storms.

3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

And right on cue. We get teased with the warmth and the back door/drizzle garbage surges right in. 

Always happens.  We just can't break this back and forth pattern.

3 hours ago, psv88 said:

Not sure why it matters that the warming may be largely from lows. Warmer is warmer. High lows means fewer mornings with frosts and freezes that kill bugs. One could argue that higher lows has more of an impact on that environment than higher highs

I'm not arguing at all against the fact it's warming.  Just stating that the lows have been contributing to our AN departures recently.

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Our cool downs are still above normal 

Yeah but that's because of the warmer lows.  Our daytime highs haven't been anything crazy.

I think we can comfortably put today into the top 10 worst weather days of the year.  Just a miserable wind driven 37 degree rain all day.  Sitting at just under 2 inches here.

4 hours ago, psv88 said:

I may have to move somewhere else if these late season blocks become the new norm. Can’t deal with these shitty aprils anymore after cool and rainy winters. Absolutely miserable 

Was just thinking about this.  And it's not just April, look how bad last fall was.  If this keeps up I'm going to map out some areas.

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

What a wet pattern.  We were lucky to have not much the last 2 weeks to dry out a bit.

It dried out the top layer maybe, but water tables still high and definitely concerned about rivers tomorrow.  We need a dry pattern that lasts for several months, and when it does rain it's not big soakers.

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Euro is a monsoon through next weekend

Shouldn't surprise anyone.  No matter the kind of winter we have spring tends to be terrible around here lately.

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

It feels like full on spring here this week...

And yet next week my forecast highs are in the 40's with lows in the 20's.  I see all these t-shirt people and wonder if they think it's summer from here on out.

Just about 2" here and still raining.  Had some heavy pockets where it really came down.  Stuck in the upper 30's most of the day.  Doesn't get much worse.

19 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Figures that after a very warm winter, a cold shot will likely be coming in around the 19th for the official start of spring. But before then we could have temps in the 70s late next week, as bluewave pointed out. 

It's really part of the up and down pattern we've been in for awhile.  Warm up, cool down on repeat, although the former tends to last longer.

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Plenty of extra Atlantic warmth and moisture to fuel more heavy rains.

 

 

Good data.  Definitely not surprised to see we're in the wetter area.  Really ever since June it's felt like we've been in an excessively grey and wet period.  Almost never had to add water to the pool, and look how many weekends we lost in the Fall.

58 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Did you ever see a forecast like this?

Sierra Nevada north of Tahoe

Tonight

Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. Low around 23. Windy, with a southwest wind 34 to 37 mph, with gusts as high as 47 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 22 to 28 inches possible.

Friday

Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Widespread blowing snow. High near 28. Windy, with a southwest wind 34 to 37 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 30 to 36 inches possible.

Friday Night

Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. Low around 18. Wind chill values as low as -1. Windy, with a southwest wind 38 to 41 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 36 to 42 inches possible.

Saturday

Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Widespread blowing snow. High near 22. Wind chill values as low as -2. Windy, with a southwest wind 30 to 32 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 18 to 24 inches possible.

Saturday Night

Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Widespread blowing snow. Low around 17. Windy, with a southwest wind 26 to 33 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 12 to 18 inches possible.

Sunday

Snow showers likely, mainly before 4pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 23. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible.

Sunday Night

A 50 percent chance of snow showers, mainly before 10pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow, mainly before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

If you add up all the "new snow accumulation" that's like 14 feet??

Pretty decent wind gusts.  Half an inch of rain here since midnight.  

42 now down from 57.

32 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

I just said that in another thread. My yard is too soft to do a real walk around but it's a mess with sticks and branches down and all of the tall flowering weeds that I let go are down and broken. Cleanup is gonna take a while this year. 

That's why I've been doing periodic clean-ups the past few years.  A couple weeks ago for instance, before the snow came, I filled up a whole bag with branches, stray leaves, and some other yard debris.  Now when spring arrives there won't be much to do.

2.5" here today makes it an even 20" for the season.  Not bad actually considering December was a disaster.

Cold night ahead.

Not bad here at all.  Had some heavy rates that added up pretty quicky, and it was kind of nice seeing that again.  Storm total was right around 9.0".

We'll see what the next few days bring.

50 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I disagree that 09-10 is the limit. The global precipitation has been increasing with the warming. I think a more realistic expectation is that the temperature keeps increasing, but the number of bigger storms increases too. That was the trend in the early 2000s through about 2016, then 7-8 years off of it doesn't really break the overall trend imo. 

Look at how much precipitable water we have this year. 

https://ibb.co/NjZ5TZ8

No other year really comes close. 15-16 is #2, at about 80% of the total anomaly. 

Right but it doesn't matter how much moisture there is when no cold air is available.  You'd have to have everything come together perfectly for storms to work out as we keep getting warmer winters.

11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Even if the pattern flips everything has to go perfectly to get a big snow at the coast. We could be cold with a storm suppressed or too far offshore or a coastal hugger and we end up flipping to rain. I mean eventually our luck has to change but that could very well take til next winter

Yeah I mean at this point you got 2 weeks of February to work with.  March is never a month to count on snow when you're already in the hole and BN.  It does tend to be snowier than December (not that it would be a hard thing to achieve this year) but it could also go the opposite way and be mild.

27 minutes ago, jr461 said:

This has to be one of the cloudiest couple of months I can remember.  Just anecdotal but it seems like we get maybe 1-2 days of sun per week.  Just very dreary overall.

Absolutely.  I've said it several times but all summer and fall has been very wet and gloomy.  We need a pattern shift this spring.

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Why has it been so cloudy this month?

They say it's very rainy in strong el ninos, but aren't we in a very atypical el nino?  So therefore, we should have more sunshine!

We've been in an excessively cloudy period since about June.  

I'd be interested in seeing a graph that shows how many cloudy days we've had relative to normal.  It seems like ever since the June wildfire smoke that getting a dry sunny stretch has been next to impossible.  Sure hope we can start a new trend with less precip, since snow seems non existent anyway.

1.3" here.  Definitely expected more but oh well.  Still been a cold wintry week regardless.

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

In all seriousness this absolutely blows, no threats in sight now. Spring cannot come fast enough 

Well who knows what Febraury, especially mid-month on, may hold.  Maybe even the first week or two of March we can score something.  I know it's not ideal, but a lot of years in the last 10 or so have been really dependent upon relatively short but incredible stretches like March 18 or Feb 21.  The stuff like 13-14 just doesn't happen anymore.

This is a really impressive arctic shot funneling in from Canada.  Even as it moderates by the time it gets to us, highs below freezing and nights in the teens will be a huge turnaround from this time last year.  Any snow we get will have some staying power.