TL97

26 minutes ago, anotherman said:

FWIW (probably not much).....

FTFY

Just about 2" in downtown DC, was expecting less than an inch yesterday evening so very happy. Was SN+ for the last hour and a half or so. 

Ended at 7.5" in downtown DC. The sun peaked out earlier but the clouds are back and there are some light flurries (picture of Dupont Circle from earlier). 

7.5" in downtown DC, the rate at which this has gone is incredible, it is winding down but we still got 1.5" in the last hour.

Seems we have maybe an hour or two left here in DC? We seem to be squeezing together two bands though, so should get some nice snows on the way out.

6" now in downtown DC, that band seems to be moving slowly away from us. Maybe we can hit 8"?

4.5" now in Downtown DC, maybe .75" in the last half hour? Lightened a little but looks like a heavy band is coming our way.

Just short of 4" in downtown DC, SN+ is continuing. Hope we can make 6".

2.75" just north of downtown DC, very heavy snow right now.

The crab claw got us here in DC

11-12 pm hour is money, DC to Baltimore gets 2" in that hour on the HRRR

HRRR also has southern NJ getting .5 QPF of sleet in an hour, that would be quite the sight to behold

Both NAMs put down .5" of QPF between 10 am and 1 pm in DC, the big question seems to be what the precip type is but that's a crazy 3 hours either way. 

HRRR also gives DC like .15" of QPF in an hour after the flip when it's really close to snow. 

4 minutes ago, real said:

Chuck Bell on NBC 4 just said he sees the dry slot in West Virginia, and he is "worried" that is heading to DC area and "will cut down on snow totals"

Seems to me most of the short term models say the moment starts coming north and so we avoid the WV dryslot. Anyway, 1.5" here and think 4" is a good target for DC area. 

Just about at an inch in downtown DC. 

GFS is going to be better I think, hour 42 radar came out on Tropical and there is a CBB band right about where 18Z RGEM had it 

5 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Ukie has finally moved the max where the other models have it.  Extreme northern md through southern Pa.  main WAA is central va still and DC kinda misses both.  Still a good storm though.

Seems like 4-6 from the front end and 2-4 from the backend, I feel like everyone will take in DC. 

GFS would be good if it was cooler, it pours here in DC (nearly an inch of rain).

ICON is like 5" of snow, then 2" of sleet (it says rain on the model but the temp is 32 and below always, maybe a little freezing rain too) then another 4" of snow on the backend. Pretty good outcome overall. 

CMC is out to 84 on pivotal, 10"+ area wide and the MOCO-HOCO deathband has put over a foot down there, and it is still snowing!

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

I'd imagine the current meltdown may have been caused more by the 0z Euro...

I think yes last night's and this morning's Euro lit the fire and the NAM added to it, but one model gives NY 18" and the other 0" so clearly there is two different issues at play here (imo the Euro solution is a lot better).

I mean honestly we'd all be a little better off if we stopped analyzing the NAM after 60 hours, it often shows bad or very good results that aren't supported and doesn't add anything.

The NAM managed to suppress our snow all the way to New York!

Looks like the Canadian shows some snow/sleet from Sunday morning until Tuesday afternoon... Would be fun from that perspective.