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Bango

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Everything posted by Bango

  1. The duration of the event is pretty awesome, with some regions east being in the midst of a 50 plus hour event depending on the east coast track
  2. Shew if that low would hug the nc coast a bit more, would be quite epic for east tn
  3. A rather highly anticipated 12z euro run awaits...kinda feeling cautiously optimistic here
  4. Fv3 is still frozen for me @96..stolen from se board, not too focus on micro level stuff but congrats kingsport/gate city
  5. There seems to be some wiggle room in the path, cmc and to some degree, the fv3, both slide the low into lower alabama. Considering we need all the help we can get, I hope we see more of the tracks like the 12z gfs, that slide it more easterly and off panama city by 50-100 miles. Ive noticed that the historic clown maps tended to have this progression
  6. Thought the totals would be more clownish after this look...pretty much the perfect path, which is what it's apparently gonna have to do in conjunction with all the other variables
  7. Incoming 12z gfs prolly gonna end as a smash fest for upper east tn valley
  8. On the Fv3, Some areas of east tn show snow/frozen precip for 55 hours lol. It's a little concerning that the low placement rides up almost into mid alabama, but checking prior runs, they also show it riding considerably north before moving east (not as much). I would not have thought such a inland path could paint such results for upper east tn, but inversely, some of the money paths on gfs do not, so there's that
  9. I don't pretend to know if this is significant or not, but carver noted the loss of the high as the icon progressed, and some in the se forum were noting this in the latest ukmet late in its run...
  10. Oz gfs, similiar issues as prior runs, sexy track, borderline temps, meh result
  11. Rehashing my mind, nam tends to have a cold bias and higher precip bias, correct? And for those of us in the northeast tn or southeast ky, we want a little weaker high (but not too weak?)
  12. I thought she might be dipping to Cuba there at the start
  13. A weird run to achieve a similiar result
  14. My mind is now blown as well ha. There is an 18z euro, and fv3 has decided to go kapoot
  15. Retire indeed, it literally would be the type of storm youd prolly never see again?
  16. Without that hiccup, and smoothing out the trajectory starting south of panama, I am guessing it would look like the ever so southerly version of its 6z path. Dunno how that would affect the northern areas of tenn?
  17. What's up with the almost vertical jog north coming out of the gulf, centering in lower bama, on the fv3?
  18. Lawdy at the crush in the nc mountains and piedmont from the 12z gfs, for under 5 days, might be the clown of all clowns for that region. Still lightly snowing back in ky/tn some 48 or so hours later lol, although big totals are hit/miss above i40
  19. Dreamy path for the low on the ICON for much of i40 north, which for that particular model, is about all I take away. As john stated, the route, for 5 days out, is really honed in even if the wobbles and details remain subject to change
  20. Are these fv3 snowfall outputs remotely correct ha? This is dgex type algorithms
  21. I m feeling increasingly optimistic with how consistent the euro/fv3 are. I don't see the same run to run consistency in the gfs or cmc, or any reason to weight them anywhere close to the euro or fv3
  22. I feel you, in addition it seems like more often its the qpf totals that start getting dramatically slashed in halves 24-48 hours prior to well modeled events....that is usually the Charlie Brown I look for as we gett closer
  23. December snow is the best, and while ill always take a Christmas snow, I actually enjoy a snow leading up to Christmas as much or more (although Christmas eve might be the pinnacle for a snow event) than Xmas day snow etc. Gets me in the festive mode if we can get a snow between Dec 5 onward
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