Bango
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January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion
Bango replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Take solace that Getting screwed means missing out on a statewide .5 inch or less -
Not that much, our totals mostly stayed similiar to other model outputs for upper east tn, but it beefed up some of the surrounding areas and did away with downsloaping (I guess)
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I like the nam out to 30, maybe 35-50 miles south of 18z, touch colder I think, similiar looking precip shield
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I am happy with my v3 snow totals, but some of the totals in the piedmont would once in a century...
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Guessing freakish amounts, if the hour 66 "snow" maps are believed
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Yeah, seems like I finish around 1:20 a.m.
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Skipping panels on v3, but i like the fact the duration of this event is getting longer across multiple models tonight
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One thing I am looking for for east tn is the redevelopment as the storm leaves the east coast. I could be wrong but i think the icon showed it in the last run, and the cmc really develops it, to make for a super long duration event for mid to east tn. Seems like all the models had it a few days ago and lost it when the models were running the storm due east quickly
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Cmc is better west on this run, almost carbon copy east from the 12z, a hair better on 0z
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0z Gfs throws us a collective dawg ugly run
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Truer words never spoken. It sure seems its trending toward a terrible freezing rain threat.
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Nam is fast moving, heavy rates. I wish we could get just a little more turn up the coast, would be epic for east tn/swva if that happened
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Is the FV3 skipping panels for y'all as well? It sure looks great to me
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Also, the gradient running north is much sharper, especially into swva wherein totals are significantly reduced. There seems less and less turn up the coast and more sliding ots.
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I will blend the cmc and icon to arrive right back at the same 50/50 proposition i started with lol. It seems the cmc has been playing catch up all storm, and with that northern track, on an island.
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It makes me worrisome how the gfs/icon exit the coast early and at angles not favorable to feed back into the interior
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I am not even sure the icon is worth discussing at this point, but it is warm, the track is seemingly favorable but it skirts off the coast sooner than other models. Upper East tn gets scrapped at the end by some heavy snow but its overall meh
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Prolly shouldnt read too much into Roberts facebook post tonight, but he doesn't seem too crazy about most of tennessee, and doesn't include east tn in his write up....(could just be an oversight)
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How much of the snow comes from the coastal spin cycle? Not saying it isn't gonna happen but isn't this the only model showing that?
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It's amazing how fv3 model consistently "sticks" on the best upcoming panel
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Fv3 is fixing to lay the hammer to alot of tennessee, wow @the incoming
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That track is awesome, it's a tick south of the nam, ideal.
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18z icon and gfs tracks are nearly identical across the gulf
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Icon has our favorable track, and the track I think we ultimately end up with, but it is its own usual dumpster fire
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What is the controlling factor for the low to be kept south and moving horizontal easterly to Panama city? A stronger high?
