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snowman19

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Posts posted by snowman19

  1. 6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

    Hopefully the weeklies are banned next winter-the last 2-3 yrs they have shown the "big pattern" in the LR only to bust horribly.

    I wish I had a dollar for every time they showed a +PNA/-EPO/-WPO/-AO/-NAO/50-50 Low pattern in the long range since 2016

    • Like 3
  2. 26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

    why would hot and dry be brutal? that would be amazing actually.

    Let's go 1983/2010 redux!

    I don’t think it’s going to just be dry heat, not with the record soil moisture we have. It’s probably going to be humid as hell

    • Like 1
  3. Just now, MJO812 said:

    Hopefully it's just light rain

    My mom's ceiling in her apartment had a big leak. She lives on the top floor. 

    Management said that they will not fix it until late April.

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    My buddy is on his 2nd sump pump motor in his cellar since October. The ground is so saturated it runs nonstop

    • Sad 1
  4. 14 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

    Up to 32.6 with .56 so far. While the ground and cars are clear all the trees and bushes are encased in ice. 

    My wife’s cousin lives in Pine Bush, she said there’s real good icing up that way

    • Like 1
  5. 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

    Models flipping wetter again at 12z. CMC has 4” for parts of LI. Quite the nice CCB that develops and nails most of us on Saturday. Too bad there’s zippo cold air until you’re well north into NY State/NNE. Could’ve been very nice if some cold air could stay around beforehand with this track/evolution. 

    3-4 inch rain totals when all is said and done would not surprise me. It's going to be absolutely torrential in the metro area on Saturday 

    • Like 1
  6. 12 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

    I'd venture quite a few of those years had either N or BN precipitation and the lack of snow may have been more a function of that.

    It's more evident that the recent snow drought is a function of well AN temperatures.

    I don't have the data to back this so it's just speculation but it's clear that the scorched earth is a huge implication in recent history.

    A lot of that period had to do with the very strong -AMO cycle we were in which resulted in ++NAO winters as @bluewave just wrote

    • Like 2
  7. 1 hour ago, bluewave said:

    The 1980s and 1990s were no comparison to the warmth and lack of snow during the 2020s so far. I will use LGA stats to compare since NYC has been consistently undermeasuring snowfall. While we are only half way through the 2020s, we would need a significant cool down and snowfall increase next 5 years to avoid the warmest and least snowiest decade on record.

    If global and local temperatures continue rising at the same rate, then we will eventually have a whole decade with the average snowfall under 10” and the average winter temperature over 40.0°. 
     

    LGA 2020s so far snowfall average….15.8”….DJF ave temp…39.2°

    ………1990s………..27.1”………………………….36.7°

    ………1980s………..21.0”…………………………34.5°

    The 1979-1993 snow drought period isn’t even in the ballpark of being anywhere near comparable to the climate now. We actually had true arctic cold back then, the oceans weren’t completely torched, Canadian snowcover and arctic sea ice were normal to well above normal at times and the atmospheric circulations were completely different as were the solar cycles

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
  8. 14 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

    Lol..the late 80's and 90's were warm and snowless..2 good winters in 14 years. We are going through the same thing now after the great winters of 2002-2016, weather changes..that's how you get averages with climate.Climate might be changing and warming but it doesn't mean that's it for snow and cold which I think you were implying.

    Ok

    • Haha 1
  9. 1 hour ago, bluewave said:

    Much more model spread than we typically see around 5 days out. The potential for heavy rains is there if everything gels. But this is a lower confidence forecast than usual since cutoffs in spring are the hardest for models to resolve. Each model has a different low position at 120 hrs. 
     

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    So much for the weekend snowstorm fantasies lol

    • Like 2
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