snowman19
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Posts posted by snowman19
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6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:
Hopefully the weeklies are banned next winter-the last 2-3 yrs they have shown the "big pattern" in the LR only to bust horribly.
I wish I had a dollar for every time they showed a +PNA/-EPO/-WPO/-AO/-NAO/50-50 Low pattern in the long range since 2016
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26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:
why would hot and dry be brutal? that would be amazing actually.
Let's go 1983/2010 redux!
I don’t think it’s going to just be dry heat, not with the record soil moisture we have. It’s probably going to be humid as hell
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4 hours ago, Allsnow said:
Yeah, ridge is flexing
I have a feeling that we are going to see the SE ridge start rearing its ugly head in a real big way in about a month from now. This summer may be brutal
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28 minutes ago, MJO812 said:
Heavy rain on 6z gfs for Thursday
The never ending saga
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Just now, MJO812 said:
My buddy is on his 2nd sump pump motor in his cellar since October. The ground is so saturated it runs nonstop
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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:
usual correction N and W will make this a hit
We will be in the bullseye come Wednesday
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6 hours ago, MJO812 said:
Hes acting like it never snows in late March.
You’ll still be wishcasting snow on Memorial Day weekend
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2 hours ago, MJO812 said:
I don't get why people are giving you weenies . There is cold air around on all the models. It's a possibility if we get a phase.
It’s not turning into an I-95 snowstorm lol
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14 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:
Up to 32.6 with .56 so far. While the ground and cars are clear all the trees and bushes are encased in ice.
My wife’s cousin lives in Pine Bush, she said there’s real good icing up that way
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Don’t be surprised if we see thunder and lightning later. The soundings support elevated convection. It’s extremely unstable
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Extremely impressive radar. It’s going to be absolutely torrential soon. Would not surprise me if there’s 4+ inch rain totals in the metro area
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3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:
Models flipping wetter again at 12z. CMC has 4” for parts of LI. Quite the nice CCB that develops and nails most of us on Saturday. Too bad there’s zippo cold air until you’re well north into NY State/NNE. Could’ve been very nice if some cold air could stay around beforehand with this track/evolution.
3-4 inch rain totals when all is said and done would not surprise me. It's going to be absolutely torrential in the metro area on Saturday
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10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:
Imagine we get snow in April
That should be a really good trick with 50’s and 60’s
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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:
20’s Friday morning?
2-4 of rain Saturday?
Ewwww
Yet another deluge on Saturday. Like we need it
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12 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:
I'd venture quite a few of those years had either N or BN precipitation and the lack of snow may have been more a function of that.
It's more evident that the recent snow drought is a function of well AN temperatures.
I don't have the data to back this so it's just speculation but it's clear that the scorched earth is a huge implication in recent history.
A lot of that period had to do with the very strong -AMO cycle we were in which resulted in ++NAO winters as @bluewave just wrote
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1 hour ago, bluewave said:
The 1980s and 1990s were no comparison to the warmth and lack of snow during the 2020s so far. I will use LGA stats to compare since NYC has been consistently undermeasuring snowfall. While we are only half way through the 2020s, we would need a significant cool down and snowfall increase next 5 years to avoid the warmest and least snowiest decade on record.
If global and local temperatures continue rising at the same rate, then we will eventually have a whole decade with the average snowfall under 10” and the average winter temperature over 40.0°.
LGA 2020s so far snowfall average….15.8”….DJF ave temp…39.2°
………1990s………..27.1”………………………….36.7°
………1980s………..21.0”…………………………34.5°
The 1979-1993 snow drought period isn’t even in the ballpark of being anywhere near comparable to the climate now. We actually had true arctic cold back then, the oceans weren’t completely torched, Canadian snowcover and arctic sea ice were normal to well above normal at times and the atmospheric circulations were completely different as were the solar cycles
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14 minutes ago, WX-PA said:
Lol..the late 80's and 90's were warm and snowless..2 good winters in 14 years. We are going through the same thing now after the great winters of 2002-2016, weather changes..that's how you get averages with climate.Climate might be changing and warming but it doesn't mean that's it for snow and cold which I think you were implying.
Ok
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@Bluewave @donsutherland1 Here is why all the stratospheric and SSWE hype failed all winter long. There is no denying that we are in the midst of major climate change/AGW anymore. We have to start rethinking the way we forecast long range winter outlooks
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4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:
Nobody thought this lol
Yea…..oook lol
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1 hour ago, bluewave said:
So much for the weekend snowstorm fantasies lol
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1 hour ago, nycwinter said:
enjoying this winter morning in the city coat hoodie hat and gloves...
Happy Spring!!
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March 2024
in New York City Metro
Posted
0.001% chance of that happening