Morch Madness

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Everything posted by Morch Madness

  1. If you look at a model and you see snow you should pick a different model
  2. The 0z GFS has temperatures approaching 70F for MONTREAL on Christmas morning. Absolutely stunning.
  3. It's disappointing, but I wouldn't call it a disaster. Long range forecasts have shown for a while that December was going to be rough and the latter half of winter looks better. The way I look at it, if we're going to have a real crummy pattern, I'd rather have it in December than January or February. We can easily have a good winter even with a bad December.
  4. That is a MECS track with absolutely no cold air to be found. What a waste.
  5. Yep. No doubt we will see lots of moisture, that STJ will be loaded. Just a matter of how early we can get the pattern to flip in our favor.
  6. Sorry, could have worded it better. I meant that December 5th of that year was showing up as a top analog. Wasn't extrapolating to the whole month, the pattern should obviously be much different.
  7. Yep, that was a great December. Currently number 4 CPC analog.
  8. First of about 300 digital inches of snow this winter from the 14 day GFS. However, there is some good model consensus to a very cold start to December.
  9. GEFS support that as well, the whole country is in the freezer to start meteorological winter
  10. Agreed. I guess I'd prefer to keep my snow because it looks cool, but that's about it. Actual snow events are sweet when they pan out but they disappoint frequently. If I couldn't track potential threats I wouldn't give a crap about snow. Sometimes I feel like the weenie in me enjoys getting hammered by the Euro more than actually seeing the snow pile up.
  11. Looks like watches should be creeping into NYC metro soon
  12. Wouldn't be surprised to see 2 or 3 more TORs. That cell near Wilmington may be a direct hit for PHL.
  13. N&W burbs are in the sweet spot for severe. A few cells to the west look like they could produce.
  14. Upgraded to SLGT risk and meso disco issued. Good potential today.
  15. Looks like a few isolated cells are trying to pop up around Baltimore. Decent lift associated with this batch, could be some thunder
  16. Looks like quite a soaker this weekend. Could have used one of these setups in January.
  17. What a frustrating storm. Best setup in years results in about 5 minutes of moderate rain and a couple blown over trash cans.
  18. Mesoscale Discussion 1140 < Previous MD MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1140 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0225 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST OH/WV TO MUCH OF NJ/SOUTHERN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 342...343... VALID 231925Z - 232100Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 342...343...CONTINUES. SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS/SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OH/MUCH OF WV/WESTERN MD AND SOUTHERN PA/PORTIONS OF NJ. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 342/343 CONTINUE UNTIL 23Z/02Z RESPECTIVELY. DISCUSSION...STORMS CONTINUE TO STEADILY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL PA AND SOUTHEAST OH AND WESTERN/NORTHERN WV INTO FAR WESTERN MD AS OF 315 PM EDT/1915Z. AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...A FAVORABLE COLLOCATION OF MODERATELY STRONG BUOYANCY /2000+ J PER KG MLCAPE/ AND STRONG/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD SUSTAINED MULTICELLS/EVOLVING LINE SEGMENTS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TRANSIENT/SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WINDS/SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN CONCERNS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS STORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
  19. Per MA forum. Pretty significant hail threat for this region. 3" bulls-eye over mby lol