Morch Madness

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Everything posted by Morch Madness

  1. Let's not forget that we have 5 or 6 more model runs until gametime. Plenty of time for a better trend on American models.
  2. Trough axis is further west, more negatively titled this run. Surface sucks, but when you factor in upper levels, clearly an improved run.
  3. This is going to be an all-time weenie run for SNE
  4. Ruling out a storm when all global models show a deepening low off OBX 120 hours out is downright foolish IMO. Canadian and Euro will be interesting.
  5. GFS is a touch north of 18z, and notably north of 12z. Threat is certainly not dead, though the setup at 500 mb is pretty underwhelming.
  6. Look with caution http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/metoc/nogaps/gif_files/no_amer_slp_wind_132.gif
  7. Wow that is a nice looking system this weekend on the Canadian, albeit wide right. 984 mb low just off OBX
  8. Right on schedule, the GFS shows a very favorable storm signal in D8-9 range
  9. Good news - I'll be in Colorado from 12/28 to 1/4 so feet and feet of snow are likely
  10. Canadian is quite a storm, ends up showing 2-4" for everybody. 2-4" of rain that is...
  11. Well, considering past winter forecasts from TWC, I'd expect a nationwide icebox. This was last year's infamously terrible forecast from TWC.
  12. 2.5" as of 6:00, hopefully this band can get me to a full 3".
  13. Just had a massive thunderclap. Was not expecting thundersnow.
  14. It's going to be awful close though. Elevation will make a whole lot of difference as well. But I do agree, our area seems to luck out more often than not on these types of gradient storms.
  15. HRRR is disappointing, looks like mostly rain and sleet. At this point I'd be happy with 1-2".
  16. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16#
  17. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html
  18. My apologies, Instant Weather Maps and coolwx.com graphs seemed to indicate mostly or all snow