superjames1992

If you compare the ground truth to the official NWS forecasts, the Triad and Triangle got basically what they were supposed to get, though.  Actually, the Triad overperformed a bit, if anything.  It just didn’t meet some of our weenie expectations.  I was expecting 2-4” IMBY and that’s basically what we got (albeit on the lower end).  I thought Raleigh would do a little better, though.

Took a drive around the area since I wanted to try my new WRX in the snow.  There's definitely a lot of slushy spots out there in the areas where there's no running water and shady areas where the pavement didn't get a lot of radiation this afternoon.  Also, there's some power outages up near Duke and some trees are bending down hanging over the roadway blocking some of the roads because of the heavy wet snow.  They actually had one of the roads near Duke closed down.

Light snow continues, but it seems like it may be starting to taper off.

39 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

Are you north or south of 501? I’m gonna go look.

I’m just NW of US 15-501 at Garrett Road.

I might be hallucinating, but these seem like some of the heaviest rates I’ve seen since sundown right now here in SW Durham.

Just got back from another Jeb Walk.  Mixed feelings.  On one hand, the snow falling is beautiful as is the snow in the trees and the grass.  On the other hand, the wet/slushy streets are not so much, and having to jump around and dodge huge puddles of water like you’re out there in a torrential downpour takes you out of the wintry spirit a bit.  This storm reminds me a lot of the January 2013 ULL in GSO.  It was also a warm storm with temperatures never falling below freezing.  Our 3.5” from that one had limited impact on the roads.  I don’t have a thermometer, but I’m guessing the temperature is 32-33 given there was still a lot of running water and I saw no icicles.  Another couple degrees colder would’ve helped a lot.

The side roads which were under shade this afternoon are actually kind of slushy, though, so driving conditions may be a little dicey.

Just took a nice Jeb Walk.  Moderate snow continues. The sidewalks are kind of slushy, but by and large the streets are just wet.  A little frustrating as I’m a street sticking weenie, but the warmish 2m temps and warm soil/pavement temps aren’t helping that.  The impending darkness should turn them into a white carpet soon, however.

Heavy snow in SW Durham.  Everything is white except the paved surfaces, it seems.

+SN.  Shaded grass is whitening.

Think we are all snow now.  Starting to stick to cars.  About to get some food before the roads get bad.

2 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

All snow on the Duke campus

Nice.  I’m like 5-10 minutes south on Garrett Road.  Looks to be mostly snow now!

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

It's not even 4 o'clock. Last light is at like 6:30.

Yeah, but the angle the sun is striking is getting pretty low, which is what hampers accumulations.

Still mixing here in SW Durham.  Need it to changeover sometime soon.  It’s starting to get dark which should help accumulations.

Snow is starting to take over from the rain here in SW Durham.  Hopefully, it fully changes over soon as rates are starting to pick up more.

-RN with maybe some sleet/snow mixing in now.  I’m not outside, so I’m not 100% sure but there’s some bigger meteors in the rain.

The 12z RGEM just upped totals big time.  1" QPF into RDU, 0.5" back to GSO.  A true weenie run!!!

8 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

I hope we’re starting off today right with this blanket of clouds.

I just wish we were starting off today with a lower temperature/DP.

2 minutes ago, eyewall said:

This is the pre-event panic phase for most. Time to just wait and see.

It would be nice if 2m temps started dropping, but I guess this was expected.  I remember a lot of folks in E NC freaking out when they warmed into the mid 40s on Christmas Day 2010 while the initial overrunning was snowing in the foothills and western Piedmont, then they promptly got crushed a few hours later.

1 minute ago, pbrown85 said:

How accurate is this model with thermals? Looks like temp will be our biggest issue in the upstate. 

The HRRR is typically way too warm.

All 100 North Carolina counties are under either a Winter Storm Warning or a Winter Weather Advisory.  Murphy to Manteo.

And the 06z NAM is mouth watering.

Not that it matters too much at this point, but the 00z GGEM came a little NW compared to 12z with higher totals inland.  A bit more juiced, which helps places like GSO.

5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

RGEM snow map...

Carbon copy of the 18z run, basically.

9 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

I feel pretty good! I also feel confident that every precip event for a month has over performed.

Yes, I’m hoping we see that theme of the winter continue.  Although given we're dealing with snow now, we’ll probably end up underperforming in liquid equivalent now. 

24 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

The NAM is fine.  If anything, it is more in line with the realistic expectations of the other models and forecasts. 

Yeah, it shows like 3/4ths of an inch liquid equivalent for RDU, pretty much all snow.  It’s great for C/E NC, so I’m not sure why a few were melting down.

8 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

It basically hasn’t changed since the storm got in range. It’s going to be an all time performance if it verifies. 

Yep, it’s consistent.  Whether it’s consistently right or wrong, we’ll find out soon enough, but you can bet I’m hugging it. 

6 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

The 21z RAP was not kind to the NC foothills. This is through 7am Friday. 

I think it’s a little far out to be using the RAP, TBH, but maybe I’m wrong.