Orangeburgwx

One of the most lopsided hurricanes I've seen.

Bigger right curve, but if Elsa strengthens, that will slide west...

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He was the one who was insulting someone else  who made a very good point about old standards not applying and then he responded with talking about an "isolated" event which it very clearly is not (and which we've extensively talked about in another thread.)  "These" guys is just one person who poked his little head in where it didn't belong.  I fully understand the conversion, I do it in my head (5/8 or 0625 miles in one km).  I'm not sure how much one understands about climate if one actually believes that anything occurs in "isolation" everything is part of much greater system and feedback mechanisms.  There is no such thing as "isolation".
 

She trying hard to close off that core

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Yeah, 998mb extrapolated on that latest ob lol

The good 'ol Pensalina (Pensacola-Carolina) track...

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Euro hits DR/Haiti and shreds

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Something to point out:

5pm motion: 285
11pm motion: 280
5am motion: 275
11am motion: 280

Keeps wobbling, I wonder if that is from the sheared nature and fast motion?

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Is that common or an outlier?

Mountains disrupt the low level center of established storms. Less organized weaker storms can sometimes make it through the mountains or, be completely torn apart: 
I wasn’t referring to the mountains of Cuba or Hispaniola though. I was referring to the environment of the eastern Caribbean which tends to be hostile for a number of reasons  

Im going with a min of 3.908

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While we were all distracted by the historic Pacific Northwest Heatwave of 2021 the 5-day daily extent in the NH dropped below 2020 for this date. It is now the 4th lowest for this date.

5pm
1009mb
45mph

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Can’t find recon data for the life of me, but TWC suggests that recon is finding TS winds near that convective burst around the center. 

Rain trying to wrap up thanks to divergence

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Models focus tornado risk mainly after dark. 

KFCX had a hardware failure and they had to order a part.  Could be up as early as today.  KRAX is replacing a generator.  Likely down through tomorrow.

Both KRAX and KFCX are out.  Hope they’re up before the upcoming severe threat.  Bad timing.

Orangeburg would not be a bad place at all to sit out and watch this thing.

ENH D3

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The very definition of weather porn:

NAM shows a good amount of 0-3km helicity over NC on Thursday...  Sig Tor Parameter around 1-2. .  Limiting factor appears to be instability...  progression of warm front and time of day will play big.

Which NAM product are you looking at?  

I think we may need to add Thursday to this thread too but definitely the first big Dixie Alley event of the year.

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Holy moly...