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Posts posted by 2010 extreme
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ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090805 SPC AC 090805 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... A cold front is forecast to move quickly eastward across the western Great Lakes and mid Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. This will occur ahead of a substantial upper-level trough that is forecast to deepen during the day. Due to strong forcing associated with the upper-level trough and cold front, a line of thunderstorms will likely develop Wednesday afternoon. This line of storms should move eastward across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Wednesday afternoon. Although a wind-damage threat will be possible along the leading edge of this line, limited moisture return and weak instability will be problematic for a more widespread threat. An isolated wind-damage threat could continue into the evening as the cold front and line of storms moves into the central Appalachians. The cold front is forecast to move through the Northeast on Thursday, and could reintensify by midday from parts of New York and Pennsylvania southward into the Mid Atlantic. The wind-damage threat could affect areas as far north as New England Thursday afternoon. A 15 percent contour could be needed in either Day 4 or Day 5, once the details become more clear in model runs that come out over the next day or two.
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Snow in late October can be a death sentence. 10/29/2011
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I'm in the place I like viewing this time of night. Just south of the storm for a nice light show.
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Ice on top of snow let's do it.
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Early season clipper anyone? Just 10 days out.
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9 hours ago, WxUSAF said:
12z GFS with the type of pattern that can bring first flakes out in mid-month fantasy land. Chilly NW flow with some embedded energy.
Interesting, that's how it's happened the past two years. Cold NW flow in mid November.
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BWI: 10/29
IAD : 10/22
DCA: 11/12
RIC: 10/30
Tie: 1.2"
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Looks like the morning rain messed up todays chances.
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It was 20years ago College Park and N va outbreak occurred. What a interesting day that was.
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Interesting, never seen a wind advisory two counties wide that has no ridge along its axis and it only last for 4 hours. Potomac River wind tunnel/channel from 2-6 pm tomorrow.
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2 hours ago, MN Transplant said:
That N/S train was like a mini-Lee.
Looking at the radar reminded me of the exact same thing. Just a few miles further east.
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Have strong gusts here.
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BWI : 16.2
DCA : 10.6
IAD : 17.3
RIC : 8.9
Tiebreaker. SBY : 13.4
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Thunder is already loud despite the storm not here yet.
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It's been awhile since I've heard this much thunder with no storm within 20-30 miles.
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33 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:
So...I know this isn't exactly on topic (although this is severe weather)...But I wasn't on these forums during the derecho back in 2012. How much in advance did the various know it was coming? (man that was some epicness that night!)
Several hours at the most other than we could see an mcs coming out of Chicago that morning . Hrrr probably did the best job. In general, even the high res guidance have a hard time picking up on the timing and trajectory of mcs systems.
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17 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:
NAM nest sucks except for a lone supercell-type storm that goes right over DC. Distinct possibility some of us blank on all 3 days...
Exactly, now if we can just get the winds backed at the surface.
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IAD: 3.7"
DCA: 0.6"
RIC: 1.6"
BWI: 3.9"
MBY: 2.4"
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You guys are thinking of Dec 8, 10 and 14 of 2013. North and west did well cities did not do as good.
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Totality looks great. We lucked out on this one unlike Sept 2015 where clouds blocked most of the event.
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Moon almost halfway covered, hoping for at least some copper or red color.
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Just came here cause I have family in the southeast affected by this storm but looks like I visited here at the wrong time. Anyways looks like the Charlotte area will be close between snow and sleet.
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Just a few light flurries here.
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2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)
in Mid Atlantic
Posted
Very true and unlike coastal snow, severe events, particularly large-scale ones tend to trend south and east. This looks no different as earlier times are now favored. However, large scale off season high shear low cape events which normally fail to gusty showers end up being our most impressive outbreaks when they do perform. Probably won't happen this time as the period from early October to early November have never really seen much.