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2010 extreme

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Posts posted by 2010 extreme

  1. 17 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

    As is common in these out-of-season events...the NAM and NAM nest favor south and east of the metros for any enhanced activity. 

    meh. 

    Very true and unlike coastal snow, severe events, particularly large-scale ones tend to trend south and east.  This looks no different as earlier times are now favored. However, large scale off season high shear low cape events which normally fail to gusty showers end up being our most impressive outbreaks when they do perform.  Probably won't happen this time as the period from early October to early November have never really seen much.

  2.  ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
       ACUS48 KWNS 090805
       SPC AC 090805
    
       Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
       NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
       0305 AM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022
    
       Valid 121200Z - 171200Z
    
       ...DISCUSSION...
       ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5...
       A cold front is forecast to move quickly eastward across the western
       Great Lakes and mid Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. This will occur
       ahead of a substantial upper-level trough that is forecast to deepen
       during the day. Due to strong forcing associated with the
       upper-level trough and cold front, a line of thunderstorms will
       likely develop Wednesday afternoon. This line of storms should move
       eastward across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Wednesday
       afternoon. Although a wind-damage threat will be possible along the
       leading edge of this line, limited moisture return and weak
       instability will be problematic for a more widespread threat. An
       isolated wind-damage threat could continue into the evening as the
       cold front and line of storms moves into the central Appalachians.
       The cold front is forecast to move through the Northeast on
       Thursday, and could reintensify by midday from parts of New York and
       Pennsylvania southward into the Mid Atlantic. The wind-damage threat
       could affect areas as far north as New England Thursday afternoon. A
       15 percent contour could be needed in either Day 4 or Day 5, once
       the details become more clear in model runs that come out over the
       next day or two.
    • Like 2
  3. 9 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

    12z GFS with the type of pattern that can bring first flakes out in mid-month fantasy land. Chilly NW flow with some embedded energy. 

    Interesting, that's how it's happened the past two years. Cold NW flow in mid November.

  4. 33 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

    So...I know this isn't exactly on topic (although this is severe weather)...But I wasn't on these forums during the derecho back in 2012. How much in advance did the various know it was coming? (man that was some epicness that night!)

    Several hours at the most other than we could see an mcs coming out of Chicago that morning . Hrrr probably did the best job.  In general, even the high res guidance have a hard time picking up on the timing and trajectory of mcs  systems.

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