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Spartman

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    4/1-4/2 severe threat (southern portion of subforum)

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    9 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

    I'm not trying to cast any aspersions. I felt kind of bad for the relentless ripping the NWS took on social media. 

    This was always more of an event for Kentucky and only extreme SW Ohio. To be honest, West Virginia seems to have been hit harder than any other place, and there was little focus. Was it because all the "storm chasers" live in Central Ohio? They didn't want to "chase" into rougher Appalachian terrain?

    Other than a few scary model runs on Mon morning, there shouldn't have been such cause for alarm in Central Ohio.

    I'm not downplaying the damage that we've seen and the tornados that have occurred, but I'm being honest, the twitter feed acted like the tornadoes would be F4 stovepipes ripping through Central Ohio in a 1974-type outbreak. I think Monday April 1st was some of the most insane weather/storm chaser hype I've ever seen on social media. Maybe these kids were just so overeager to chase they inflated it in their own mind? 

     

    NWS really got hijacked by trolls on social media over that.

     Michael Jackson Popcorn GIF - Michael Jackson Popcorn GIFs

    April 8, 2024 Eclipse

    in Weather Forecasting and Discussion

    Posted

    NWS IND
      

    .CLIMATE...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Apr 1 2024

It is now about a week out from eclipse day and as stated in
previous iterations of this discussion, a few signals can be
deciphered from long range guidance.

As mentioned in the discussion above, a deepening/occluding low
pressure system is anticipated to develop over the eastern US. As
this low deepens, it should act to bottle up the upstream wave
pattern. This can be seen in guidance as a deepening trough over the
western US. It`s this trough that could be the determining factor as
to what kind of weather we see on Monday April 8th.

Taking a step back, global teleconnections show strongly negative
phases in both the NAO and AO. This means that the synoptic scale
will dictate our weather going forward, and with a very strong and
occluded low over the east coast...it is likely that the position
and longevity of this system will determine the evolution of the
west coast trough.

Latest ensemble guidance depicts both the eastern and western
troughs becoming highly amplified with an increasingly squeezed
ridge in between. A flow pattern similar to a classic omega block
looks to take shape by Friday. With strongly negative
teleconnections, a pattern featuring blocking is not a surprise.
Guidance begins to diverge over the weekend as models struggle to
depict how the aforementioned features interact within the bottled up
flow. Guidance typically struggles in blocking patterns, and can be
too fast with synoptic-scale features. This can be seen in recent
trends with today`s system that has been gradually shifting westward
with time.

It`s tough to downscale this pattern into a cloud cover forecast for
the 8th. The primary questions are how much does the occluded east
coast low affect the upstream pattern, and in what form the western
trough ejects eastward. As guidance comes into greater consensus,
the answers to these questions will likewise come into focus. Stay
tuned for further updates.

    Might as well stick a fork in seeing the eclipse on Monday

    • Sad 1

    March 2024 General Discussion

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    2 hours ago, bowtie` said:

    I thought that today was supposed to be damp in this area but around noon, we had a clearing here and full sunshine until almost sunset. A grand and glorious way to end the month here.

     

    8G3A3270.thumb.JPG.32ed7fa433bbb002a9e1272839aad1c1.JPG

    Only got 0.02" of rain tonight. This March ends up with below-normal rainfall for the month, but April looks to be a different story. Also a warm March, but not warm enough to be one of the top 10 warmest.

    April 8 Great American Eclipse forecast

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    NWS IND:
      

    .CLIMATE...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024

The eclipse is now 10 days away, and we`re starting to pick up on a
few long range signals. At 10 days out, there is still a lot of
ambiguity and uncertainty in the forecast, but given a few
consistent signals, a few assertions can be made.

Let`s start off with the 2-4 day outlook and how it will impact
April 8th. As mentioned previously, a deep trough is developing over
the Eastern Pacific, and will pass through the Midwest early next
week. The associated low pressure system is expected to reach the
Mid-Atlantic region late next week, and should subsequently rapidly
deepen as it interacts with increased coastal moisture. A upper
level system over Canada is also expected to merge, further
amplifying the East Coast trough/low.

Given a strongly negative NAO and PNA, synoptic scale influence
should dictate the pattern, and the rapidly deepening low pressure
system should "bottle-up" the upstream waves. This can be visualized
by a relatively tight Mountain-West ridge in the GEFS 500mb height
spaghetti plot around 140-200 hours from initialization. Many
ensembles are subsequently picking up on a Rex block type pattern
over the CONUS next weekend as we approach eclipse day. As stated,
there is still some uncertainty on where this blocking pattern will
be positioned, but typically, long range models are too progressive
with Rex blocks, leading to the current belief that downstream
ridging will be present over the Ohio Valley by eclipse day. It`s
difficult to downscale this synoptic pattern into a specific cloud
forecast for April 8th, but we will continue to monitor pattern
signals/consistency and update as needed.

     

    • Thanks 1

    March 2024 General Discussion

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    Only reached 48, temps significantly underperformed with the afternoon cloud cover and "warm" air advection. NWS ILN seems to treating it like it was one of the most siginificant underperformances ever. 

    Daytime highs today underperformed thanks to northerly flow and
decent cloud cover. Therefore, temperatures are in the upper 30s
to low 40s across the region at the time of this writing.
Overnight lows fall to the mid/low 30s across the region, but by
the time subfreezing thermal profiles arrive, precipitation will
have tapered off for the most part. Therefore, not anticipating
anything other than a cold rain and possibly a brief rain/snow
mix for some isolated areas.

     

    March 2024 General Discussion

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    On 3/7/2024 at 12:13 AM, cyclone77 said:

    Looks like a good chance at a 1" soaker tomorrow night and Friday.  We've been very dry after the mid Jan snowstorms so the moisture will be appreciated.  

    Suicide weather today. It's looking wet Friday into Saturday. Either way, we're in for quite a prolonged overcast stretch through the weekend. Dreading this month will be dealing with a hangover from the very cloudy January many of us had earlier this year.

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