shaggy

I am not at all upset with this outcome right now. Euro had me with a foot of snow for the 8th and 9th event several days ahead of the storm. I got 40 and rain. I don't want to be in a bullseye this far out. Suppression is better than being on the rain snow line and it can only change for the better and if it doesn't who cares I wasn't expecting anything anyways.

Nobody is expecting catastrophic damage. The orientation of our river systems is perfect for funneling water during storms. Even here inland I have watched the Tar river flow BACKWARDS as storms approach as the surge starts to build in. If you go to the NHC inundation maps for eastern NC even for a cat 1 you will see certain areas that are susceptible to big surges based on wind. In May of 2005 a nor'easter put 4-6 foot of surge into Adams creek. The highest recorded gust was 79mph on cedar island so it wasn't some big storm. Its not just about wind speed. Its about wind direction and duration. A stalled cat 1 in the right spot with a big wind field would cause massive flooding in some locations across NC.

TS dennis stalled off hatteras for a few days and put more water in the pamlico river at Washington than any other storm. So even if it doesn't landfall the slow motion could still cause huge effects if it has a large enough wind field.

I still believe Jose might have made cat 5 east of the islands as well. He was right at it when the plane left and his satellite appearance only got better for the 12 hours after that recon.

So basically the euro from the other night filled Jose in and ran Maria right into NC on a steady NW motion. The GFS was stronger and took Jose further south towards bermuda and ejected maria out to sea. It seems as if the two models have swapped solutions for the time being.

Not that this run of the gfs is a sure thing but a storm in that position for that long would fill the sounds and rivers up with a huge surge. TS Dennis sat out there for a few days in 1999 and the pamlico river at washington had 9 foot surge.

Yep Jose needs to either dissipate and or move out of the way faster to allow that Ridge to build back. I'm really surprised at the amount of degradation he went through last night on satellite

We either need dissipation or for Jose to scoot east and allow the ridge to rebuild. One thing is for certain. Jose's satellite appearance just went to garbage in a quick minute. He is completely sheared out mess right now. It almost looks like he has become decoupled with the mid level center moving NE and LLC slowly moving north still. Its hard to tell without good visible imagery.

Every run that has had Jose hanging around off NE has had Maria further off the coast. The Euro leaves room for a NE hit based on Jose getting out of the way. The modeling suggests the more of Jose we see the less of a worry Maria will be. Doesn't mean the models are right but that's what we have to go on.

As long as they keep Jose doing the loop I think we see Maria go safely OTS. Doesn't matter for the Antilles as they are going to take another beating from a major cane again.

With the improvement on satellite and the nice cdo forming right over a tight core she has the opportunity to explode. Can't see much that would stop her from really taking off now.

All depends on what Jose does.

No doubt they are helping big with current provisions that are needed badly. Financial donations to help rebuild infrastructure like water and electric is more what I was referring to. She is slowly building what looks like a small CDO. If she manages to get a nice core built tonight then the islands might be in trouble.

Then the cruising industry should be donating huge sums of cash to the relief and rebuilding efforts. The cruise lines have made a fortune on the backs of these islands and I hope they remember that now in the lesser Antilles biggest time of need.

With last weeks active storms and several tornados does anyone have a confirmed tornado count so far this year? We should be somewhere around 10-13 I think if I remember correctly.

Making landfall soon and has winds of 125kts.

It was forecast to be 6 to 12 in raleigh but a wave the day before shoved the baroclinic zone further offshore and moved the low development further east. TWC had crews in rdu and Winston Salem and they got zipped. Sun was out at WS and east of 95 got thumped. Great write up on how and why it busted on rah past events page.

I wonder what brick did in 2000 when Jim Cantore was In raleigh and had flurries while we were getting a foot down east. That was a bust of my lifetime right there.

So for 3 days the Euro ran suppressed and weaker than the GFS. Now they have really just switched positons to a large degree and now that the GFS essentially caved to the euros early runs the GFS is bunk and the euro is right now that its switched to a more amped solution... Got to love tracking winter storms.

Wouldn't it be great for a large area of Georgia, SC and NC to all get 3-6 inches. Then it could warm up to spring time temps and I wouldn't care

yeah im right there with ya being in eastern NC. Early phase and i'll likely see mixed bag or all rain. I need the models to stay south and strung out until a later phase.

How often is it that we have to worry about suppression and a possible earlier phase (if that Michigan wave interacts too soon) all in the same storm.

wpc doesn't bolster much hope either. Their disco pretty much goes with a sheared out mess with no real chance at anything significant per current modeling.

Pretty rapid intensification on nock-ten and he's now sitting at 130kts

Nock-ten has popped a pretty clear eye all of a sudden. Anyone else think this gets to a stronger storm than currently projected?