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thunderbolt

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Posts posted by thunderbolt

  1. Depicting Inland Watches/Warnings on Cone

    • New experimental cone graphic depicting inland U.S. tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings will become available in 2024
    • Will help convey wind hazard risk
    • Graphic may not be available as soon as the current cone graphic due to the time need to compile complete inland watch and warning information
    • Will be available beginning on or around August 15, 2024

    Department of Commerce // National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration // 1

  2. 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

    I am not being snarky, I am genuinely curious how you think we should talk about the long range then?  I have no issue with your methodologies but as far as I know none of them are helpful with diagnosing long range patterns.  Pressure differences between DC and Pitt aren't going to help us glean anything about something 2-3 weeks away.  So my honest questions is, how would you prefer the discussions in the long range thread be centered?  

    Well said

  3. 2 hours ago, frd said:

    From Tomer , here is his update from 5 days ago, so keep that in mind.  He seems bullish for a Moderate to Major Mid Atlantic Snowstorm 

    January 25 Update I typically like to provide general windows for snow potentials once the picture becomes somewhat clearer; in the following days since this post, I feel increasingly confident in narrowing down a potential window between around February 15-25 for the peak potential of a moderate-major Mid Atlantic and Northeast snowstorm, though a low potential exists as early as the 2nd week of February.

     

    Really this guys making a predicament, and it’s possibly 15 to 25 days away and even calling out possibly a major wow this guys got some big balls anybody know what this guy’s track record

  4. 3 hours ago, GaWx said:

    -This pattern is further evidence of the already known GEFS bias toward too strong of an SPV.

    -Latest GEFS (your blue line) has dropped to a not too shabby -2.5. It may drop a little more in tomorrow’s run.

    -This is a 10 mb reversal along with a split but without a simultaneous 10 mb warming. So, I don’t know whether Jan of 2024 will be credited in datasets as having had a major SSW.

    -There already was an impressive 10 mb warming 12/29-1/6. Since there was no reversal then, that was initially considered a minor SSW. And now comes a reversal 10 days later.

    -Could this be counted as a lagged major SSW when all is said and done? Quite possibly. There was a warming peak in late Jan of 2010 and the attendant 10 mb winds dropped to ~+1 to +2 m/s but the actual reversal wasn’t til ~2/9/2010. This is counted in some datasets as a late Jan 2010 major SSW and in others as a Feb 9, 2010, major SSW.

    - Will there be a detectable lagged effect on the troposphere (a new -NAO/-AO combo) later? The average lag is ~2 weeks but it can take 4 weeks. Fwiw, the last few Euro Weeklies have shown a new -NAO/-AO combo for Feb 12-26, which would mean a start ~3.5 weeks after the Jan 16th reversal.

     

     Here’s today’s update of the non-Euro models, which again all show a reversal Jan 15-16:

    IMG_8928.thumb.png.5311ad37d0b09df9a2ecb334551aef86.png

    Nice work there GA

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1
  5. 21 hours ago, GaWx said:

     Today’s non EPS 10 mb strat wind update has 100% of the GEFS members with a reversal on Jan 16th (averaging -1.25 m/s). This is just two days after none of the members had one! The other models also have a reversal Jan 15-16 with the GEPS still the strongest:

    IMG_8917.thumb.png.7417f2c7f8eedcb413568b8509636a10.png
     

    Edit: today’s EPS agrees a reversal is coming:

    IMG_8920.png.5106a11b6de8f29c80ada0dc42e5216b.png

    image.png.d0bd4669dfa92b9931eef2f3e94b0034.png

    • Like 1
  6. 1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

    You have absolutely no idea what you’re talking about. None, clueless. You’re really, really bad at this. Stop, just stop. This is going to be an official trimonthly super El Niño. The ONI is for NDJ going to be over +2.0C (super). You lose, game over, give it up. You are making yourself look delusional and even more ridiculous 

    crw_ssta_graph_nino34.png

    , stop using a coral reef anyway, I hope you have a great week. You could always look forward to next year.lol0.82023-0.7-0.4-0.10.20.50.81.11.31.61.81.9

  7. 43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

    I see what you said. Its a deflection away from acknowledgment of the fact that the 2.0+ ONI crowd may be correct. Pointing out that there is not a "super" category is a strawman contention...its irrelevant. 

    True, but it’s not gonna come to fruition 2.0. Close, but no cigar. I can see December maybe January coming in at 2. But not February. and as you know you need three months straight of 2.0 also, I admire your work to also and your outlook so far is been spot on. Keep up the great work.

    • Weenie 2
  8. Just now, thunderbolt said:

    Not disputing that whatsoever. Look what I said earlier.

     

    2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

    If the ONI peaks at 2.0, then the guys calling for a super peak were correct.

    Period.

    Does it mean another shit winter? No, especially not with abundant blocking. 

    In the reference about the winter, it is what it is I could care less

    • Weenie 1
  9. 34 minutes ago, GaWx said:

    1. But if ONI peak were to end up +2.00+, why wouldn’t it be known as a low end super? I don’t follow you.

    2. Now regarding RONI, which many have been saying is more relevant to sensible wx, it looks to most likely peak in only low end strong.

    Let me also state, I respect you you’re probably one of the best posters on this format. There’s certain individual so I could care less about. He’s just a shit stir that’s it. Because if you go against his agenda, he calls you  troll. Or he make fun of you.

  10. Just now, thunderbolt said:

    There’s no such thing as a low end super when all said and done, the government will recognize it as a strong El Niño, it’s only been positive for roughly about a month and a half other than that you need three months of consecutive 2.0 to clarify that as a super not happening, especially as of right now.image.png.38682de3d80a752b22bf66c5da208fb3.png

    image.thumb.gif.fea9c2f8ad8068b5deb22e789c2c510c.gif

  11. 30 minutes ago, GaWx said:

    1. But if ONI peak were to end up +2.00+, why wouldn’t it be known as a low end super? I don’t follow you.

    2. Now regarding RONI, which many have been saying is more relevant to sensible wx, it looks to most likely peak in only low end strong.

    There’s no such thing as a low end super when all said and done, the government will recognize it as a strong El Niño, it’s only been positive for roughly about a month and a half other than that you need three months of consecutive 2.0 to clarify that as a super not happening, especially as of right now.image.png.38682de3d80a752b22bf66c5da208fb3.png

  12. 27 minutes ago, GaWx said:

    1. But if ONI peak were to end up +2.00+, why wouldn’t it be known as a low end super? I don’t follow you.

    2. Now regarding RONI, which many have been saying is more relevant to sensible wx, it looks to most likely peak in only low end strong.

    There’s no such thing as a low end super when all said and done, the government will recognize it as a strong El Niño, it’s only been positive for roughly about a month and a half other than that you need three months of consecutive 2.0 to clarify that as a super not happening, especially as of right now.

    • Confused 1
  13. 22 minutes ago, GaWx said:

    1. But if ONI peak were to end up +2.00+, why wouldn’t it be known as a low end super? I don’t follow you.

    2. Now regarding RONI, which many have been saying is more relevant to sensible wx, it looks to most likely peak in only low end strong.

    There’s no such thing as a low and super

    • Weenie 1
  14. 55 minutes ago, GaWx said:

    -That’s not Nov but rather it’s OND, which was +1.94 (rounds to +1.9).

    -Nov, itself, was actually +2.02. Dec was +2.07:

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

    -That means that Jan ERSST only needs to end up at +1.91 to allow NDJ to average +2.00. And you don’t need three months of +2.00+. Just the average of the 3. Currently, Jan 1-5 is ~+2.15 for ERSST, based on it having averaged 0.08 warmer than OISST over the last 5 months. For 11/1/23-1/5/24, ERSST is ~+2.05. To bring down ERSST to under +2.00 for 11/1/23-1/31/24, ERSST would need to be +1.87 or cooler for 1/6-31, which equates to ~+1.80 or cooler for OISST for 1/6-31.

     So, do folks think that OISST will average <+1.80 for 1/6-31? That’s about what it will take to prevent a super ONI peak. OISST hasn’t had a single day under 1.80 since Nov 16. Opinions? Yesterday it was at +1.94 but that was only after a good drop. I think the odds are pretty low, but we’ll see. That’s why I’m favoring that we get a super peak as of now.

    That’s fair, but when all said, and done this year’s gonna be known as a strong El Niño, not super no ifs or butts about it

  15. You shouldn’t call people names that’s not nice Ben Noll always uses OISST not CRW. With weeks and weeks of warming (WWBs/DWKWs) yet to go, it's obvious at this point that it's going to exceed +2.0C. @roardog He used the CRW SST map yes, but he uses OFFICIAL readings (OISST). The last OISST on cyclonicwx was in the verge of going above +1.8C. Nice troll 

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