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Posts posted by Lookout
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45 minutes ago, NEGa said:
Bottomed out at 5 degrees. It’s been a while since it was this cold here lol
Was 19.2 here at noon...been a long time its been under 20 at noon with sunny skies here. .I'm guessing last time was Jan 85. Athens had a high of 22 after a -4 low.
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Low of 6.1 here. Was 25 for afternoon max yesterday and we might not beat that today which would be impressive.
Also even some lake effect clouds off lanier this morning on satellite
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49 minutes ago, jharv said:
Thanks, for the update. Didnt realize you were in Athens. Wondered what those returns were like over there. Sounds like about the same here just north of Augusta hoping I have several more hours of it though.
I think I did just about as good as possible. It was warmer to the west, drier to the north, and warmer to the south with rain for a time.
30 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:The heaviest bands don’t even arrive until 10PMish but yes, it’ll bust
Lol..the last band was awesome here...instead of the dry stuff it was huge flakes. By far the best...easily got me to an inch. And that banding looks more impressive in sc by the minute. I wouldn't worry if I was in eastern areas.
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Been snowing light to moderate since around 5pm but it took quite a while to get to freezing.(around 7).now its 30.7. A rather dry snow at that..getting close to an inch but a lot was eaten up with those above freezing temps. Its a shame to have another snow event with temps not below freezing for a good part of it. . It seems so wrong to see flakes wasted on cooling.
That said getting any snow at all twice in a week, much less two accumulating ones, is a for sure win in my book.. Radar shows another half hour or so (some of the heaviest of the entire evening is right now). So over 4.30 hours worth for a storm all models showed none at all over multiple runs isn't too bad.
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Light flurries just started here...34.9
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46 minutes ago, burrel2 said:
Euro looks like it's going for glory at 144hr, imo.
Lol that is most likely the heaviest fantasy computer snow I've ever seen. Pretty wild the euro has a similar solution. I figure I probably have about as much chance for that to happen as winning the PowerBall.
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39 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:
That is awesome. Models keep bringing the snow farther and farther west. Crazy how this is happening just 24 hours out.
It sure has been a wild model trip. A northwest trend which i think everyone figured would happen to some degree is one thing but seeing precip shields expand this much this close to an event is pretty impressive. Sure hope it continues into tomorrow.
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15 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:
This was 11 hours ago. Ridiculous.
It sure is. I can't believe the overall performance but the euro has been especially bad. Just 36 hours ago the euro had a half a foot into northeast ga and back to Charlotte just 24 hours ago. Nevermind the euro ensembles over nc and va. Truly awful and absurd.
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42 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:
You would think the globals would be better 22 years later.
Lol for real...i think those hoping for that sort of bust/miracle are kidding themselves. That's not to say it can't or won't be a fairly decent snow for eastern areas in the end though
36 minutes ago, VARTV said:ANYTHING can happen in 36 hours. It'll rain in VB and snow everywhere else! LOL
The good news for the eastern folks it won't take much correction at all the other way to undo a lot of the damage. Heck it wouldn't take much of one to give western areas a little something again but its really remarkable and frustrating the models have performed this poorly.
25 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:Funny how WAA aloft disappears as soon as you need it most
Or a stronger Atlantic ridge, nw trend or literally everything that screws everyone with 90% of storms around these parts. It just figures it would do this when for once we will have a super wedge..it all feels like a cruel joke..especially for those who didn't see much with the last system. Maybe ill get lucky and get some freezing drizzle this time...sigh.
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1 minute ago, BullCityWx said:
The entire state of SC is covered in Winter Ptypes
Its rare indeed to see so much of Georgia in it as well. I'm right on the snow line, of course, but I think there would be more sleet than its showing. Hope we see some support among the other models tonight though.
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Well had a mix for a while last night but never switched over even though temp was 33/34.
Finally changed to sleet and snow a few.minutes ago at 32. Was expecting the changeover by noon but seemed like forever. Radar looks decent. Hoping it over performs. Rgem is busting pretty bad on temps. About 5 or 6 degrees too warm here right now.
Winds were of course ridiculous but finally have calmed down. Top gust was 43.
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Light rain, 38 over 33. Hrrr has it mixing or changing over around 2. Sure isn't a shortage of moisture.
Nice to see the gfs showing a good band of snow tomorrow now even if this front end fails.
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6 minutes ago, burrel2 said:
Hrrr is straight porn for the Upstate and NE Georgia. Complete jackpot paste job... It's becoming clear that this area is going to get hammered for at least a few hours tonight before any changeover to sleet happens. I think 2-4 is a conservative call at this point, (I -85 north in SC and Gainesville, GA and points North and East in Georgia).
Yep, I sure wish I could have went to Gainesville or Clayton but I was forced to stay home for this one and I'm right on the battle line per hrrr. 15 minutes north or south could be a night a day difference here. Ironically its not the 850s that have been the problem but a thin warm layer around 900 to 925mb. Hoping the heavy precip will overcome it and I see a an hour or two at least before changing over but its impossible to say right now. Ihopefully based on the cold low levels sleet can save me from a ton of freezing rain.
regardless the threat of power outages is high due to expected high winds even without freezing rain. If there is a lot with these winds, its going to be real bad. Interesting disagreement between the 3km nam and hrrr. Hrrr says sleet should be the primary precip in the wedge while nam is freezing rain. Curious to see who wins.
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1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said:
I'm not sure about how much I'd cut the totals with temps in the 20's for the duration.
This is going to be fascinating to see how we well or bad the gfs does on temps. Its dramatically warmer than Everything else here..by as much as 10 degrees Sunday. Its like being back in the old days of the avn. I would take it as seriously as the avn if there was more dry air in place which is The only thing that gives me pause for north ga. Instead us in Georgia have to rely on caa after precip starts. Obviously the Carolinas are a different story but even there it looks about 5 degrees too warm in sc.
6 minutes ago, Wow said:The worst is seeing the short range models like the HRRR show an awesome setup then trend to the global models. The 12z HRRR looks amazing at 48 hrs but it will without a doubt trend toward the rest of the models.
I dont often look at the long range hrrr/rap but it sure makes me wish it was more reliable at this range.
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A word about the icon for north ga folks, looking at full soundings there isn't much difference between the 06z and 12z run with respect to soundings and the threat of a front end hit of snow.. I'm a bit baffled to be honest why it cut totals. Surface through the mid levels look cold. Might be foolish to worry about such minor details at this range but can't help myself.
12z Canadian is also lovely.
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2 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:
Yes, but i still trended farther south with the surface low, baby steps.
Yep but its annoying since for my own psychological well being I wish it would get with the program already.
1 minute ago, HKY_WX said:We all have a scorned lover it seems lol.
Lol for real.
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The stubbornness of the gfs vs literally every other model is pretty wild. Take dewpoints for example, gfs is upwards of 20 degrees warmer over sc sat evening vs everything else.
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9 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:
The 06z run had given my location 5 to 7 inches on the front end . This run isn't quite as high which is a bit odd given what I feel like is improvements. Might make up for it on the back end though. Regardess, Hard not to like the trends if you are looking for something other than cold rain..especially in ga
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2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:
Icon still south of most guidance at 18z
This icon run is a pretty big hit for north ga too. Freezing temps all the way down to the northern atl burbs by 09z sun.
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Being that its the 84 hour plot it should be taken with caution but fwiw 18z nam has dpts crashing in time to leave little doubt of significant ice/snow accumulations in north ga. 20 degree dpts down to Athens and Gainesville right ahead of the precip with even colder air incoming in the low levels.
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20 minutes ago, burrel2 said:
Yea, Atlanta area to Athens, Georgia would need things to slow down a bit to allow time for the wedge to build in( if you want crippling ice totals).
classic wedge fronts coming in are almost always 2-3hrs later than models show as well in my experience.
id be surprised if the Atlanta area has significant ice accretions, but they could definitely have major traffic problems Sunday evening from a thin layer of freezing rain.
Yep, its always a big red flag when the dry air isn't in place already. For the Carolinas thats not a problem..mostly. Euro and Canadian are 15 to 20 degrees lower with dpts vs the gfs in sc sat evening.
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28 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:
I am still suspect of your area seeing any notable snow. I only recall one instance of a deeper low of this nature producing snows on the backside that far S into GA and that was 1/21/87. Typically the TROWAL area is up in TN or if the low is near SAV or off the coast its farther east. Its interesting though seeing the Euro consistently show the snow down into AHN and NRN ATL
Yeah, I dont expect that much as of now which is why I said I'd take it in a heartbeat vs what I am leaning toward now...more sleet and freezing rain. As already mentioned, most snow i would get would be on the front end. But its just too early to have any confidence at all on exact details.
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Just now, buckeyefan1 said:
I'm not looking at the column until I can see the whites of its eyes Everyone complains about sleet, but to me that just keeps the snow around longer and gives perfect sledding conditions
Haha. Being a wedge weenie its an addiction but Absolutely. ...sleet sure beats freezing rain or rain any day.
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1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said:
id take 8 inches and .30 of freezing rain...especially over that garbage the gfs is showing lol. Althougb looking at 925 mb temps, euro might be underestimating sleet amounts some. At least for now the nw trend has stopped.
Canadian is pretty wild with as much sleet its showing.
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February 11-12 ULL Winter Storm
in Southeastern States
Posted
Its so close where im at. As it stands I think at a minimal a changeover is possible. Accumulating is another story though. Looking closely at the 850 to 950mb levels, there should be more snow on the icon and gfs than indicated between 06z and 15z sunday..but how much is impossible to say since it will be largely rate driven. Frustrating since it seems just a few tens of miles east there is a better chance thanks to 925 caa/dynamical cooling. If its just the smallest bit cooler ne ga would be in a much better spot.
At least it happens at the right time of day as we would have no shot if it was during the daytime. But Figures we finally get a good upper low and track and we have almost no cold air to work with.