Chinook

June 27th may have been one of the most active tornado days of the year, with tornadoes in Virginia, Maryland, North Carolina, Minnesota, South Dakota, and North Dakota. SPC unfiltered reports for this day show 48 tornado reports. Several tornadoes occurred in North Dakota. I believe there were 20 tornadoes in the Grand Forks CWA alone, based on these storm report lists/storm survey reports: http://kamala.cod.edu/nd/latest.nwus53.KFGF.html http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KFGF/1507020315.nous43.html -- NWS Grand Forks -- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 1015 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015 ..NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 06/27/15 TORNADO OUTBREAK ..THREE ADDITIONAL TORNADOES HAVE BEEN IDENTIFIED AND SURVEYED OVERVIEW NUMEROUS TORNADOES WERE SPAWNED DURING AN OUTBREAK WHICH INITIATED IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND MOVED SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. MORE THAN A DOZEN TORNADOES HAVE BEEN IDENTIFIED WITH THIS OUTBREAK IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH ADDITIONAL TORNADOES HAVING POSSIBLY OCCURRED ADJACENT COUNTIES IN MINNESOTA AS WELL.

tornado reported at Raytown at the time of this image

Right now: tornado watch has been issued in the radar-hole-land of west ND, east MT. Tomorrow, I agree with you. The area from Kansas City to the MO/AR border should see several thunderstorms. I think there will be some severe wx in this area, and also some areas of elevated T-storms that are sub-severe. NAM 84-hr rain totals show pretty high rain amounts, most of Missouri, to Memphis and Paducah.

NWS 4-km precipitation analysis available here (for free) http://models.weatherbell.com/hrap/nws_precip.php shows that Toledo has had 9-11 inches of rain in 30 days (as of a couple of days ago) and Cleveland has had 9-13 inches. That's huge!

A tornado has been reported at Gardar, ND. The storm cell was kind of a mess. The storm dropped almost straight south out of Canada. You don't see too many tornadic storms dropping out of Canada. Edit: swarm of tornadoes in northeastern North Dakota

HRRR is advertising a relatively long squall line in TX and OK.

Several storms are developing in the tornado watch area now. They all seem fairly ordinary, though.

4.51" in an hour at Corpus Christi Airport.

NWS Norman tweeted this about Oklahoma City: May 2015 may set the record for the wettest month since records began in late 1890. Already at # 5.

Nebraska and Kansas are about 1/2 filled with light rain. It's just amazing how many rain events have happened on the plains. Maybe we could even get rid of some of the drought in Minnesota.

tornado reported on a second supercell that has tracked southeast of Hallam/Princeton Nebraska

Wenesday could be pretty active, as a shortwave will kick out from the southwest into the Plains from Tuesday to Wednesday. The NAM and GFS show plenty of rain in the southern Plains on Wednesday, perhaps meaning that broad-scale convection could hurt chances of destabilization.

hail size and VIL are large (3.52" and 127 kg/m2) on this storm south of Lincoln Nebraska

Yesterday's long-range GFS came up with a fantasy storm for mid-Lake Erie to Windsor ONT. Today, fantasy for CLE-BUF.

NWS point&click and MEX-MOS has 4 out the next 5 mornings at or below 0 for Toledo area. The average low for these days is 23!

Toledo is just 0.7" away from tying the record snowiest February. (25.2" and 25.1" are the top 2, separated by 111 years)

A few wind gusts in northwest Ohio have reached 48-49mph. It must be very annoying and dangerous, for the people out there who might be more likely to get frostbite.

Toledo had a light glaze tonight, then some sleet, then some snow. Unknown Precipitation "UP" in the ASOS reports is frequently sleet (although I have no idea why) KTDZ 090016Z AUTO 03010G17KT 3SM FZRA BR OVC005 00/M02 A2981 RMK AO2 UPB12E13FZRAB13 P0000 I1001 T00001017 TSNO KTDZ 090353Z AUTO 03011G18KT 3SM -SN BR OVC009 M02/M04 A2989 RMK AO2 SNB26 CIG 006V013 SLP125 P0001 T10221044 TSNO TOL KTOL 090352Z 04010KT 8SM FEW007 OVC016 M02/M03 A2988 RMK AO2 UPE02B49E51FZRAB02E13SNB13E49 SLP124 P0003 T10221033

Toledo area storm totals. CoCoRAHS shows 11-14" in the Toledo area, 9-12.5" in Henry County Ohio, 15.3" in Monroe County MI, 8" in Sandusky County OH. Edit: 12" of snow at Toledo Express. NWS public information statements/LSRS Michigan

My brother just asked me what they will get in Canton. Wow. Hard call. I think some rain will happen in the middle of the storm, if any rain.

I see freezing rain/sleet at CAK and freezing rain at AKR, and spotter reports of freezing rain from Canton/Akron to Pittsburgh.

A few radar images of OH/IN from yesterday/last night

Well, PCW airport ASOS has reported some slightly weird things since it came online (less than a year ago?). Maybe that -14 temperature wasn't one of the weird ones. I don't remember this ASOS being there before 2014. http://www.portclintonairport.com/

It was an unusual morning with various levels of radiational cooling around Toledo. At 11z, Toledo ranged from 3 to 8 degrees, it was -1 at Findlay, and Port Clinton (PCW) had a low of -14. Toledo (TOL) reached its low of -2 around midnight, and warmed to 3 by sunrise. Does anyone know if Port Clinton (PCW) is experiencing problems with the ASOS device? This is a very low temperature considering it must be close to the lake. image

What do you guys think for the LES potential on Jan. 7th? I see 850 and 700mb temps pretty darn cold. 700mb temps down to -34C over the lake, with a 30kt NW wind from the surface to 700mb. I wonder if snow bands will organize to make for a big snow event for NE Ohio. On the other hand, I wonder if this is -too- cold and dry. Then again "too dry" seems a little dumb seeing as how the RH values aren't too bad on the GFS.