ForestHillWx

The second storm is all about the possibility of the first locking in that monster hp the models have flirted with. 

But, I like the fact that all of the posters in this forum look at reality and prepare accordingly. 

The ensembles haven’t moved much for my area; arguably they have increased chances for significant snows.

MMU and points north/west should be in the game. 

That has been my thought as well. Storm 1 will have a significant impact on the potential for storm 2 at least our area. 

That’s a bear of an hp locked into Quebec; if it actually happens is a different story.

Winds will rip, which has me concerned due to all the dead ash standing near power lines.

Yikes is the main thread a wreck. Glad to be a part of the NW of 287 crew; even though I’m about 10 miles north of 78 as the crow flys. 

Come on elevation!

Re: the 10th, I think we need to clear the deck of the 7th, before speaking in definitive outcomes for thereafter  

Let’s deal with the potential for this first significant storm in 2 years, before washing it away. 

Speaking for my area only, I know the city east often rides the line when storms amp, the individual members of the EPS have dramatically increased chances at a substantial snowfall.
Long way to go, but a positive development imho. 

33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I bet most folks didn’t know he was in a southern rock band called The Jompson Brothers and there’s a full album from 2010. That got put on hold when he became the biggest songwriter in Nashville and then his solo career went nuts.

 

SteelDrivers too. Bluegrass/country/rock. Guys incredibly talented..

28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It makes you wonder why people want to live near a river?

Aren't there other problems associated with living near rivers too, more biting insects, etc?

 

Why now or when the communities were originally built? 

Speaking of my own family, many had summer bungalows along the Pompton/Passaic Rivers during the 1920s-1940s, however as development ramped up in the 1950s and after, the normal course for excess water flow were lost. These areas were largely forest/farm land that could handle the water.

My great-grandmother, (who died in 2001 at 98 years) told us a story of floating out of her bungalow one night on her bedroom furniture. That happened at some time in the 1930s before development exacerbated the problem. That area is known as “Maple Grove” and the counties (Morris/Passaic) have actually purchased the bulk of the land to remediate all homes.

Why people purchase homes in low lying areas at present, I anticipate are largely due to financial constraints. 

They are removing dams in New Jersey to improve the ecology for native species. See the Duke Farms area in Somerset County and now the Paulinskill in Sussex as examples.

The earth will be fine, people need to adapt. 

I couldn’t believe the multi- million dollar rebuilds along the Jersey shore after Sandy, but it’s human nature. I just don’t like hearing sob stories after the next episode. 

At this point anything that could trigger a snow flake is worth tracking imho. 

I can’t place it, but this forum is so much better to read than the NYC forum, of which my local is on the outskirts regardless. 

There’s just a better sense of jovial posting that simply does not exist in the Tri-state. Must explain my constant yearning to escape NJ for VT.  

One of the worst statements in the public lexicon to come out of the early part of the 2010s is  the phrase, “the science is settled”; and followed as of late the phrase “the science has evolved”. 

Absolute tripe. Why not state “here’s my theory, and here’s my defense of that theory”. This applies regardless, if the theory of AGW is accurate or not. 

Sorry, I couldn’t resist the professor’s commentary. And I know this is banter, but it needs to be said. 

Had some crust on the roof tops..possibly from an early morning flizzard.

Limited winds here, but pushing 4”. Floods are on going. Basement taking it on the chin 

8 hours ago, kdennis78 said:

I also hate to be a IMBY but what is the rainfall we are looking at in western and southwestern Morris County, NJ? Thanks for any insight 

Howdy neighbor. I am expecting 2.5-3”; should be fun….

The winds could be problematic with all the dead ash trees in our area. I hope I am wrong. 

Without needing to state the obvious, I think @wishcast_hateris commenting as to the extent of AGW on the ever evolving climate, as the responsive posts correctly point out. 

Candidly when discussing the impacts of “climate change” on our weather patterns there is a built-in narrative that the climate is changing due to human activity, and not in response to natural variability. 
 

And now, back to wishcasting for snow…
 

36 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

I will never understand how we can declare definitive climate change based on 150 years of records when we have no idea of what took place beforehand.


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Careful…you’re treading on sacred ground around these parts. 

Interesting temperature inversions out this way this morning; Heavy, heavy frost along the shrubs/trees on my drive on the backroads thru Pottersville along the Black/Lamington rivers. 

Serene setting; wish I had time to take a picture. 

Just lost power. Cold front approaching, temp down to 40; this is where it’ll get interesting.

New windows and insulation in the addition area of the house for the win. 

Tremendous rains over the past 2 hours. Easily pushing an 1” already. 

Interestingly I live closer to PA, than NYC as the crow flys.

I’m not expecting accumulation, but to see more than a trace would be a win in this early winter season. 

With all the talk of the coming warmth, I have 30 degrees with legit light snow at present.

Roofs and roads are dusted; all the little kids were excited as could be at pre-k drop off. 

Seasons in seasons type stuff…

‘93 was great; ‘96 was the one for me though. 

I vividly remember Al Roker bumping projected totals each update, all the while my dad saying “don’t worry you’ll have school”. 

2 days later he came home driving in a front end loader to clear the end of our dead end street as we were plowed in.

 I don’t think we had school for 2.5 days. 

Toaster baths in the main thread.
 

Personally I’ll take the mild weather for as long as I can to finish up home construction, windows/siding are on back order, without spending too much to heat. 

I’m at 26 now but it was definitely chilly when I put the trash out at 7.