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ShawnEastTN

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  1. ShawnEastTN
    Looks like it's blowing quite good from the camera link. Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk
  2. ShawnEastTN
    That's exactly what I was doing loaded up as much wood I could in the house for tonight. Glad I have wood for secondary heat, feel sorry for folks without secondary heat if the power goes out and electric is their only heat. Think you are going to do well where you are. Fingers crossed downslope don't get me. Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk
  3. ShawnEastTN
    Have gusty SW wind here ATM, hopefully it's transporting lots of moisture up the valley to get trapped. Though for being gusty SW wind it sure is chilly. Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk
  4. ShawnEastTN
    Your topo is why I do better with Northerly flow. I'm due south in the valley of the sort of gap between the mountains around Frozen Head and the higher terrain down around black and hinch mountains. Generally I do better when the flow funnels through your neck of the woods vs a west wind. Not only do I do better there seems some weird enhancement when the wind funnels through there. Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk
  5. ShawnEastTN
    This is what I am hoping here, under forecasted event, that busts high. There is absolutely a chance for anyone in the forum region to bust high. Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk
  6. ShawnEastTN
    For only 2-4" which I suspect isn't there normal requirement for WSW, think they are trying to make a statement with the public about how bad its going to get with wind driven snow. Funny though with only 3 inches of snow with the forecast windspeeds there will probably be drifts up to 2 feet deep in places. Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk
  7. ShawnEastTN
    Don't know if anyone has noticed but the Blizzard warnings have expanded westward back to Montana where the front had already passed yesterday. Which means if NWS offices out there didn't think it was necessary to issue until well after fropa then the winds and overall strength of the storm and its impacts were underestimated yesterday. Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk
  8. ShawnEastTN
    Definitely an improvement for the valley considering earlier runs the valley was blanked almost entirely. Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk
  9. ShawnEastTN
    Right talk about treacherous! Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk
  10. ShawnEastTN
    I've seen the same from Watts Bar nuclear plant, steam blowing SE in a very cold single digit night with NW winds, back in early 2000s I worked 3rd shift drove under the steam cloud from the plant in an otherwise fair night sky with stars, and flurries were falling right under the steam cloud! Wild stuff, I've told people that over the years who didn't believe me. Awesome someone else with similar experience. Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk
  11. ShawnEastTN
    Also sorry for quoting you twice, but that makes me wonder about all the trapped low level moisture stuck in the valley that doesn't fully dry from downsloping. I think that could ignight in the same manner and not even be seen on radar. Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk
  12. ShawnEastTN
    Great example!!! There have been so many examples of things modeling just couldn't simulate because it's so unprecedented. Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk
  13. ShawnEastTN
    Most similar arctic front anafrontal type events I'd just barely follow for the valley, but this being really unprecedented in modern modeling history I think it's game on for this to work out in ways they don't typically. Remember there is not a true analog here, there are similar systems but no true analog for this potent a system. Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk
  14. ShawnEastTN
    I think we are going to be stuck in a nowcast situation with this. There have been many things occurring in the plains the last 12 hours that were not modeled correctly even on the hi-res models. Storms of this magnitude don't happen often enough for the models to handle them well. Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk
  15. ShawnEastTN
    Yeah they added "Heavy snow" verbiage to my point forecast too and I'm in valley. Think all the reports from the plains has them spooked that even with small amounts of snow the conditions could be severe, even Blizzard like at times like as have been seen so far. Places that only got an inch or 2 like Cheyenne still got Blizzard like blowing snow conditions for a few hours. Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk
  16. ShawnEastTN
    A snip from MRX 3rd shift discussion. "I have been forecasting in the Southeast for 23 years, and I have never seen an outbreak of combined cold and wind like this one. This will be a potentially life-threatening cold event if precautions are not taken. Please see our office social media pages for infographics on how to stay safe" Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk
  17. ShawnEastTN
    I just don't buy the complete blank of the valley. The plateau has an effect of downsloping but I think it's exaggerating that effect as though the plateau has the elevation of the smokies. I think the models are overdoing the downsloping and underestimating the speed of the cold past the great wall of the Cumberland. Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk
  18. ShawnEastTN
    GFS is never gonna give you up, never gonna let you down... Seriously it's now depicting snow further south than it has so far, almost to the Mississippi/Louisiana border. Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk
  19. ShawnEastTN
    About as wicked as it gets! Thats what it looks like with only 1"-2" of high rstio powder snow with that crazy wind! Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk
  20. ShawnEastTN
    Cheyenne currently. https://fb.watch/hzx67t_rlT/?mibextid=NnVzG8 Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk
  21. ShawnEastTN
    Yeah I don't like most of the modeling trends this evening, but really think we are in for some surprises with this storm. I think the odds are higher for a surprise because historically surprises come in 2 flavors, very weak systems, and insanely over amped systems. Doesn't mean we'll get a surprise but a possibility. I think someone in the region is going to score well beyond what's modeled/forecast. Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk
  22. ShawnEastTN
    Hope that trends that way all the way up to the event, the further south the closer we are to the dynamics and deeper moisture. Would love for this storm to blow modeling up collectively. Happens every so often with winter storms, especially powerful atypical type storms. Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk
  23. ShawnEastTN
    What is interesting to me if snow amounts are more even a small amount more say 3" with the wind as strong as its going to be and the powdery nature of this type of snow, there could be times of serious visibility issues with near whiteout conditions from blowing snow. Would be amazing to see if we end up with more than currently forecast. Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk
  24. ShawnEastTN
    I'm surprised MRX hasn't pulled the trigger, not so much about snow amounts, as much as the combination of flash freeze, light snow and wind chill combined makes for dangerous travel right at high travel days. Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk
  25. ShawnEastTN
    MRX afternoon disco is up. I noticed my point forecast snow accumulation increased, not by much from less than .5", to less than an inch so decided to check if they had the discussion up, MRX mentions they were slightly increasing snowfall amounts due to WPC guidance. Good read though. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OHX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk
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