Mountain_Patch

Set this as the mark when people rush back to Maria by sunday morning.

except the westward flow into florida right now. That confuses me why people are so confident on this turn.

So you're telling me somehow in 10 years you've managed to completely study the effects of cyclone interaction with a concept that wasn't even named before the 2000's? I trust the good people at NOAA but not that much.

ignore the models and look at the atmospherics. They don't match. Neither model knows how to handle jose going forward. Saturday night you can trust the models. I found this highly informative.

This is wrong. The high could bridge with the high to the east of Jose. The low could advance quicker pulling Maria into the coast. Jose could avoid weakening enough to allow the bridge. There is no way to say its safe to say anything before sat night. 66% chance out to sea 33. whatever into south/north carolina/virginia.

I don't know, honestly. Intensification isn't understood which is really what led me to this site to begin with. This has been my reading material as of late: https://emanuel.mit.edu/limits-hurricane-intensity

It's an estimate.

I've now lost all hope. Haters win.

Everything anyone is discussing is anecdotal.The local code establishes 145 mph as a baseline. The problem is going to be 'Creole' construction as defined in this article: https://www.elnuevodia.com/english/english/nota/irmashowstheproblemofinformalconstruction-2358410/ Before the 2011 codes the baseline was 125. The problem is going to be *how much 'Creole'* construction took place. Puerto Rico is impoverished in comparison to the U.S. but on a lot of their buildings they do have decent standards. I would like less anecdotal evidence.

I'm starting to come to agreement with 40/70 on his contrarian nature. None of these islands minus Barbuda have been completely decimated. Fact is at this current heading, it's going to interact with the mountains prior to hitting San Juan. The infrastructure will be damaged, but it isn't coming in from the northern part of the Island it's coming in from the South Eastern. It will be bad, and people will die, but this is a compact hurricane that doesn't have the size, or the punch Irma did at her maximum. The damage will be similar to the 7.1 in Mexico, and it will suck. However, this isn't going to be Biblical. We shouldn't let our imaginations run so wild with these storms. People who read the forums get the concept that it's going to be like Tuscaloosa, Moore, Joplin, but it's just not. Also; If you'd do a little googling you'd see HAM radio operators are still in communication. Just because some services are out doesn't mean all are. http://www.arrl.org/news/radio-amateur-on-st-lucia-relays-reports-of-hurricane-devastation-on-dominica