ILSNOW

I will take the RGEM  for $1000 please

the 12z HRRR Alek snow

Looking forward to the late March snowstorm where we get 3-6 inches that melts away in less than 24 hours. This winter (take away 7-10 days in Jan) has been horrific and I truly can’t remember the last time we had a during the day.

1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

Id look for some input from @OHweather @Chicago Storm or @RCNYILWX, but from what Im gathering about the pattern later next week and beyond is that it would appear to have good clipper potential. Hopefully that can bring back the snow!

here is the 1st one nice 1017 low moving thru IL

next chance at snow is on 372 hour 18z GFS

not sure how good the GFS is with freezing rain 

12z

nice 20:1 ratios to fluff up the snow

Chicago NWS

The models and their ensembles are coming into better agreement
with a period of snow to spread across the area Thursday night
into Friday morning. While there isn`t much qpf, perhaps no more
than 0.1 to 0.15 of an inch, it will be so cold that snow ratios
of 15:1 to perhaps 20:1 are likely, allowing for a fluffy snow.
Given these trends, have bumped up pops to categorical with at
least a few inches of snow possible across the entire area. Given
how cold both the ground and air temperatures will be, the snow
will quickly accumulate. Winds will shift to the northwest as
this snow is ending and increase and gust, possibly into the 25-30
mph range. So if we do get a few inches of new fluffy snow,
blowing/low drifting snow will be possible.

off an on light snow

18z GEFS Mean (10:1)

These GFS snow numbers are at basically an 8:1 ratio for almost the entire event. Storm does have great potential but would have one for the books if we had a cold air mass in place with 12 or 14:1 ratios.

Storm

what are your thoughts for the area?

Well in excess of 8 inches does include 9-17.

18z NAM looks pretty good.

Question for the pros if the NAM or Euro outcomes occur on Friday would the ratios be closer to 10:1 or as crappy as todays?

if only

The 384 hr 12z GFS looks hot!!!

I will not post the map.

I remember a time when December rolled around we actually had storms to track and it would actually snow. These days we impatiently wait for our 2 week window in mid January where we will have a couple of near misses as the arctic air suppresses the storm south of us and Oklahoma City gets a foot of snow. We will then proceed to warm back up until we get a few inches of snow in April. I do miss the good times of following every model run!!!

Chicago NWS

Lake IL-Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook-
Including the cities of Waukegan, Buffalo Grove, Mundelein,
Gurnee, Evanston, Des Plaines, Schaumburg, Palatine, Northbrook,
Chicago, Cicero, Oak Lawn, Oak Park, La Grange, Calumet City,
Oak Forest, Lemont, Orland Park, and Park Forest
245 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Burst of accumulating snow expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45

Great writeup by Ricky on the flash flooding potential

The 12z HREF LPMM notably features some pockets of
3-5" of rain, with ensemble max hinting at upside potential being
5-7" amounts where repeated rounds of intense convection occur.
See WPC`s recent MPD for additional thoughts on this. We`re
looking at a decent chance of issuing a Flood Watch once
convective trends have shown their hand more conclusively.

Chicago NWS

There are increasing concerns that isolated to scattered
thunderstorms develop a bit earlier in the afternoon along the
backdoor front/lake breeze boundary. Have nudged up the start time
of the thunder mention (VCTS) to 22Z for all terminals due to the
anticipated northwest to southeast orientation of the boundary.
There is a low chance (20 percent) that storms develop as early as
21Z over the Chicago metro terminals. There remains greater
confidence in a separate cluster or line of severe thunderstorms
that develops to our northwest and progress southeast across the
area during the evening hours. While severe weather is possible
with any storms that develop today, the more organized severe wind
threat would likely be tied to the evening convection.

big fatties flying and starting to stick on grass.

Edit: 455pm backed off considerable 

started as snow here flake size is getting larger

12z EPS

and snow depth

RC

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1140 AM CST Wed Mar 8 2023

No changes were made to the Winter Storm Watch in effect for the
Wisconsin state line counties. The key points from the early AM
AFD remain similar and there`s still generally speaking two camps,
the higher QPF and snow NCEP guidance (including some but not all
CAMs) and the lower QPF and snow foreign guidance. Heaviest
precipitation rates, possibly including some rain at onset, look
to be mid-late Thursday afternoon into the early evening. Part of
that includes daylight hours and temperatures starting a few to
several degrees above freezing, so it`s uncertain how long heavier
snow rates will take after onset to result in pavement accumulations
and worsening impacts. Thinking is that decisions on the winter
headlines should be able to be made this afternoon after assessing
the rest of the 12z model cycle data, which primarily is the
ECMWF and its ensemble at this point.

Castro