stadiumwave

@snowman19 is lagging 

@greenskeeper how about you go challenge Roundy since you're so smart? You're the weenie. No objevtivity whatsoever. 

I bet you did not even read because that's what most of you do. You will NOT entertain any point from anyone that threatens you're own understanding. A closed mind is just a disgrace to science.

I guess I'd understand if one were completely denying the science about "greenhouse gases". That is not what Roundy & many others are doing. 

This is a golden chain of tweets from Paul Roundy, who is no denier, and is a brilliant Atmospheric Scientist. I highly encourage clicking the thread & reading objectively. 

Whoops

11 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Actually, I think I’m largely in agreement with @so_whats_happening.Wouldn’t it make sense that there always (not just sometimes) is a lag (of however many days, which would vary from case to case) between what happens in the tropics/MJO and what happens in the middle latitudes (E US temperatures for example)?

 However, my agreement doesn’t mean that I shouldn’t still use those composite maps for concurrent. I think that’s where we disagree. It is tricky.

"Always", yes as far as time scales. But thee are cases that the response is very quick & there are cases the lag is significant. It's not always the same. Other factors play a role in response.

I don't know if I can find it but I'm pretty sure Paul Roundy participated in a really good peer-reviewed study on "lag". If I find it I'll link it. I might just have to ask Paul for it. So, might take a day or 2. 

9 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

If we can't agree yet that there is a lag between MJO phase and the effects toward mid latitude then I don't know what.

This is not 100% accurate. There is "sometimes" a lag that's either brief or moderate & there are times that there's hardly lag at all. 

I didn't read what yall were arguing about just your statement. "Sometimes" & at differing intervals is more accurate. 

11 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Not necessarily. Last winter’s coldest (near Christmas) had a similarly strong MC MJO. Also, Jan 20-31 of 1978 had similar. MJO, just like most indices, tells us what usually happens as opposed to what nearly always happens. I should add that I haven’t seen a GEFS EPO forecast. Anyone see it? I suspect that might be negative, which would be favorable.

Oh say it again!! 100% true!

I mean this is an unusual fall & winter for predictive indices. Why not? Lol

I'll be honest, I'm surprised at the magnitude of cold thats showing up on OP & Ensembles. I thought we'd get cold but was not sure deep cold was achievable this winter. But the OP & Ensemble signals are strong. 

And I'm referring to west of APPS. I'm not in northeast but the northeast does not have to have the deepest of the cold to get the winter storms with the -NAO block they're likely. If fact I'd argue if you want snow you certainly do not want the heart of the cold where it will be dryer 

12z CFS Weeklies just had its best looking 4-6 weeks on the model its had yet. 

0z Euro still has a clean SPV split at 10mb & 50mb

11 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

FWIW, the BSR would support more of the 12z EPS look, rather than the GEFS. Not any sign of troublesome ridging in the east through JAN 20ish time frame. BSR has a correlation of general pattern 17-21 days later. The dates on the graphs are based on 19 days. So when looking & it says JAN 10th, you're talking about JAN 8-12 ish, so dates are not exact. 

 

Click on JAN 2024 icon & then at bottom of page the image shows. Top bar daily surface, bottom is daily 500:

 

http://joe.organicforecasting.com/BsrEar/Bsr/

The JAN 9 potential winter storm...the A.I products are closer to the 12z EURO & ironically the BSR correlation. BSR is not 1:1 correlation on systems always but can be close at times. Just noticed A.I. & 12z EPS much closer:

FWIW, the BSR would support more of the 12z EPS look, rather than the GEFS. Not any sign of troublesome ridging in the east through JAN 20ish time frame. BSR has a correlation of general pattern 17-21 days later. The dates on the graphs are based on 19 days. So when looking & it says JAN 10th, you're talking about JAN 8-12 ish, so dates are not exact. 

Click on JAN 2024 icon & then at bottom of page the image shows. Top bar daily surface, bottom is daily 500:

http://joe.organicforecasting.com/BsrEar/Bsr/

Add - 18z GEFS has now split at 10mb & 50mb

12z EPS Days 11-15....freaking beautiful 

Day 15

12z EURO split SPV at 10mb & 50mb

EDIT: I'm wondering if this trends stronger again. 

1 hour ago, so_whats_happening said:

Translate it and up at the top you will see the reliability of each by color coding.

I know that. I'm just wondering about verification 

Is anyone familar with the science behind this MJO page?

https://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/

It's showing this for El Nino, JAN, Phase 2:

I see some similarities to the above image with the upcoming pattern. 

This for El Nino, JAN Phase 3....this is the one that took me for a loop...it's not bad at all:

This is La Nina, JAN, Phase 3:

Anyone know the accuracy?

0z EPS 11-15

MJO forecast not all that different from JAN, 2010 which is RED line. 

JAN, 2010 the block carrying over from DEC relaxed all but the first few days.

At this point a better block for JAN is showing up through mid-month as seen above verses JAN, 2010 (Late DEC & FEB were best -NAO blocks that winter). 

PNA had recovered a bit to more neutral in 2010,not so much now. So better -NAO block but stronger -PNA. Pattern may be pretty good for everyone west of APPS for the larger part. Strong cold shots possible in heartland. East of Apps still has a shot of winter weather with any secondary SLP's on the southern end of cold fronts. 

I'd also like to say those who championed the -PDO (I call a hybrid -PDO) thinking it would lead to deep, constant -PNA. Well, the observations pooey that. It's been anything but the case. We've spent very little time in -PNA territory since early SEPT.

With the SST's the way they are it's muting the effect of what is a strong -PDO on the index. Just keep that in mind. I think the PDO index is faulty here. 

The weak orientation of a further west mean trough coming up is going to be due mainly to MJO, Phase 3....not -PDO. BTW, I think it's weak PHASE 3 & organic methods show the trough swinging back & forth & certainly not constant ridging in the east. The greatest threat of stubborn ridging will be in NE from -NAO, which sometimes still works out well (2010 +anomalies in NE heights but still had some big snows). 

10 hours ago, NEPASnow said:

There is still a SSW, and a possible split still might occur, just not a reversal.

#1 GEPS still spilts for a bit

#2 EPS still splits at 50mb, 100mb, & 150mb

#3 EURO at 10mb looks like it's on its way to splitting but also it's warming orientation is different than other models pushing than main lobe to North America

#4 GEFS & GEPS have additional warming event after the first event starting over Asia around JAN 14, also on GFS

#5 With all that said, a full SSW is not needed to get to where winter lovers would like to be. We're likely headed that way either way & whether we get a full SSW the SPV looks to keep taking hits remaining weak. 

33 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

At least the SPV stays weak for a while

GFS OP & GEFS both advertising another warming strat warming episode beginning on the heels of this & really ramping up by mid-Jan. If so then no doubt stays weak a long while. 2nd warming may deliver the goods if it occurs.

0z Euro starts to split SPV at 10mb & 50mb on day 10 (end of run).