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NCSNOW

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Everything posted by NCSNOW

  1. 12z Euro Op: Feb 8th still looking good/on track
  2. 12z gfsFV3 adds to the noise starting Feb 8-9. One overuning event after another. Has front to our west runing sw to ne but gets it sagged and by feb 10 on has moisture coming and going across se, overruning with one hp after another sliding across ne. See ice down in south GA one day. So starting Feb 8 onward to atleast Feb 15 is a golden opportunity. Really curious to how the front that passes through feb 8-9 decides to set up shop and its orientation.
  3. Now that we are getting pretty strong consensus the warm up coming is brief and Feb 8/9 is our flip back time to winter. Time to start watching for opportunity to see if the window is open. I've seen a FV3 run from two days ago slap a fantasy event up during this time and it was the same reason the GFS has this at 12z today. Front comes through and hangs up along Gulf Coast. Then we get over runing potential with Our Must Have HP hanging out over NE ( Theres a 1045 HP sliding W-E behind that GL LP). Heres' a vort map to be watching for what kind of energy will be around. Rooting for a surface low here to form. Doesn't have to be some big beast, but the opportunity is there for the taken. On the surface this vort map is just a very thin line of snow way down Miss/AL. We know we are gonna have a front come through next Thursday/ 7-8 days away. Next thing to nail down is watch and see if it keeps stalling along gulf coast. If that's there next several days on models, then look for the energy on vort maps/trends and see if it can throw the qpf over the top into cold air.
  4. Yea Gefs was only one out of 4 that looked awful to me around this time and biggest reason is the lack of west coast ridge. If we NA trough or I call it the bowling ball trough again, I have reservations about our chances. There are ways to make it work good for us but also alot of ways where we sit through past patterns of cold ,warmup and rain then right back cold. I just wish we could get a nice ridge on west coast and true split flow pattern. Then throw in just the slightest bit of help Atlantic side would be icing on the cake.
  5. Alright ill join the pattern change chase. Right now its Feb 7th per gfs and euro op. Not the ensembles I know, but hour 220-230 have a storm going over NC and ots , behind, a big fat high building in. I checked this last night on euro and its held serve, so lets see if it can get under 5 days by this weekend. If,big if the mjo gets a move on out of phase 6 into 7, which its supose to ,then this times out right. My hunch is for my area we needed a reshuffle in order to score. And if we do score again its gonna have to time it with a cad HP sliding into place , synched with a gulf low. Just like December. This pv counter clockwise wheel over the lakes want work.
  6. Word on the street is its already flipped to fatties in MT Airy, that was 40 minutes ago, any truth?
  7. Mack is never gonna forget this wintrer if the tide doesnt change soon. His 2 favorite teams: Clemson wins it all football Duke will win it all basketball Brick will have over a foot of snow while his backyard gets skunked.
  8. The Brick just got Named at 0z. 3 inches on a clown. My man after double digit Dec snow, He will score again while others miss out. Mark it down.
  9. 37/28 Albermarle is 35/30 Also Sanford is 35 and reidsville 33. You get in big cities its all lower 40s. They just cant radiate with all the heat island effect. Takes that brick,asphalt and concrete a long time to cool back down.
  10. Im going into this fairy tale chase hugging the GFS. What could possibly go wrong?
  11. Snowing northern obx per this radar: man that storm was so so so so close https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/south-carolina/weather-radar?play=1
  12. Long range EPS: for all you state fans that like RED, EPS has your favorite color Day 5-10. However as you can see day 10, the Blues are advancing. So maybe this afternoon at hr 240 its made more progress east. We'll see. Its a torch at at 850s though during this time , so wear your sunglasses when viewing lol.
  13. Noon update. I see Nam above. Here's the others; Expect zilch and be happily surprised if you catch a quick convective thump.
  14. We'll Im not an expert and dont mind calling myself out. But my amateur seasonal forecast from November is no doubt gonna bust on temps and at best has a 50/50 chance of verefying snowfall wise. I feel strongly we will have too punt the first 10 days of Feb at a minimum and possibly several more. Still time here to score one more storm late Feb, early March so well see. But the models LR no doubt head faked me out big time and on two seperate occasions this winter. The pac was a mess late Dec into first 9 days of January and its getting ready to flood us agian with pacific air. So outside of tommorows cold front, its gonna take a last second pattern rollover for late Feb early March to see anymore frozen. Really hate for SC peeps and down east guys who have been shutout so far. One thing Ive learned is I cringe everytime I hear el nino mentioned. Use to root for the weak ones,but as we can see its just not worth it. To many days wasted feeling pacific origin air verse colder canadian. Always root for the cold and get it to stay.. Then look for some precip, itll come along down here. We are polar opposite this year because of the el nino signal and pac lined up the way it did.
  15. Lordy look at radar down in Florida and south GA. This was so close. If it could have turned 100 miles earlier.
  16. You boys better root hard for this front and enjoy the refreshing artic air for a few days that follow. After that its looking like we are rooting for a late Feb/ early March freak spring snowstorm. I dont trust a brief warmup,then it rolls back over to cold, atleast not yet. All this backend winter talk, thank the lord we scored early December.
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