CAPE

Looks like a good radiational cooling night tonight. Probably some scattered frost with temps in the mid 30s outside of the UHI.

3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The soil moisture data at the Waldorf mesonet site perfectly illustrates this point.

The Ridgely site, which is closest to me, is drier. 10 cm = 0.071 wfv. It was 0.257 on April 5.

3" here for April, but almost all of that fell the first 4 days of the month. Soil here is well drained, mostly silt and sand. This time of year it can get dry pretty quickly. Even though it was super wet with high water table a month ago, that rapidly changes with longer/warmer days and increase in transpiration underway, and enhanced by a dry spell. All that said, it would probably take another couple weeks of little to no rain to reach 'abnormally dry' category.

18 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Temps look outstanding by Sunday. Hopefully we can snag some storms during the warmup.

Any significant rain chances are probably a week away(which would be May 1st), when HP along the east coast breaks down and a front associated with LP tracking across the GLs gets closer.

I ran the sprinkler yesterday evening. Maybe a tenth of an inch over the last 20 days.

35. Mt Holly expanded the Frost advisory last evening. Saw some spotty frost driving in but the air is pretty dry.

17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Am I missing something with the frost/freeze advisories tonight? Hrrr and NAM have lows in the 40s even for far N/W burbs?

It's unlikely to marginal for a freeze anywhere east of the mountains. Frost in some spots, maybe. I noticed Mt Holly has frost advisories in effect tonight where temps are forecast to fall to 36, with 'patchy frost' wording in those areas. No advisories last night, and here it was 36 with patchy frost lol. Tonight no advisory again here, with a forecast low of 37. Not sure what the actual criteria is.

36 with some patchy frost.

2 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I'm over here on Wye Island doing some hiking and it's perfect weather. It's nice and cool with gray sky. It's really pretty over here. 

Nice. I have been outside working on the plant beds and its perfect. No wind, no sun, dry, and 50 degrees. I know some want 80s and humid but eff that shit, too early. We get that for 5-6 months as it is.

CanSIPS h5 look suggests late Dec into early Jan and again in late winter will offer chances for colder airmasses in the central/eastern US mostly via the NE Pac ridge shifting into the EPO domain. Recent Ninas have featured such favorable periods for cold/snow in the MA, within the overall unfavorable h5 pattern for DJFM- in particular 2016-17, 17-18, and 21-22.

.07" overnight. Most rain here since the first few days of the month.

I asked Copilot "how are you more helpful than using Google".

It basically told me it was a shill for Microsoft and it used Bing lol.

Just another mid summer, mid April day here. High of 82. No sign of any rain.

3 hours ago, snowfan said:

LR doesn’t look very wet attm. My sandy soil yard is already dried up and hard after the recent rain. Might be time to fire up the drought thread. That said, 6-10, 8-14, and 3-4 week outlooks all show fair chances of below to normal temps. No big heat on the horizon. 

Soil has gotten dry here too. The seasonal wetland is shrinking some, so I can't complain about that.

10 hours ago, dailylurker said:

Back to summer for 6 months. 

Begins in April now. Wasps already building nests. Been catching carpenter bees in the traps for a week now. That used to be an early May thing.

7 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm probably late to the party on this one but my god is twitter a mess now.  It was always a god awful place to get any political news from, but used to be if I was careful about who I followed my feed was 90% weather, soccer, and philly sports.  1 in 10 posts would be some BS nonsense.  But now...its the reverse.  No matter how many crazies I block my feed is 90% batshit crazy conspiracy nonsense, blatant racist garbage, or BS political takes.  I have to scroll through piles of BS to find anything I am interested in.  WTF 

Yeah this isn't new. Thank Elon.

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Was at the game last night. Kreamer was awful

Brutal pitching the first 2 games of this series. Hopefully Burnes is sharp against his old team, and the offense gets it going early.

The Orioles starting pitching looks shaky. Not too surprising. Additions will be needed at some point. Burnes needs to be the stopper today.

21 hours ago, snowfan said:

Holliday being called up per Jeff Passan on X. Holy sheet. 

Os also need to get Kjerstad on the roster. It's kind of now or never- dude is killing the ball and he is 25.

Boring.

Important signing imo, especially after losing Clowney. Maybe Oweh and/or Ojabo develop into a legit pass rusher, but can't count on it at this point, and Van Noy is also a great teammate and mentor.

Brief line of uneventful showers just came through here, and now blue skies and sun! Seems like forever lol.

Surprised to see a tornado watch over here. With a temp of 50, socked in with clouds and light rain, clearly the warm front is still to the south. Remains to be seen if this marine airmass will budge.

Up to 2.42" for the event. Ditches overflowing and  lot of water lying around in low areas.

Been pouring in Easton and looking at radar, at my house too. Tapering off now.

I was at 1.68" early this morning. Gotta be well over 2" now. A couple more rounds to go if the mesos are correct.

From Mount Holly AFD early this morning-

Strong warm advection/isentropic lift and elevated instability will contribute to several rounds of showers, heavy at times, during the bulk of Wednesday as warm front moves northward aloft. That part is key...surface warm front, by contrast, looks likely to end up pretty stuck across the southern Delmarva through Wednesday. It may creep north slightly, but right now the I-95 corridor and points north still look most likely to stay in the relative cool sector, with highs in the 40s to lower 50s. Meanwhile, south of the front, highs surge into the 60s across southern Delaware and the lower eastern shore of Maryland. And this is what could make things more interesting in terms of severe potential as we get into the afternoon and early evening period as the triple-point low develops just to our southwest and tracks along the stalled front into the Delmarva and eventually far southern NJ.Depending on available instability, this could be a focal point for severe weather thanks to the enhanced shear along the warm front. SPC has placed a slight risk of severe weather across our extreme southernmost zones for Wednesday with the MARGINAL risk for severe weather extending a bit farther north through the remainder of Delmarva and then extending east through southern most NJ. Given the very strong shear, forcing, and "thick" CAPE values near 700 mb the set up could result in elevated supercells. Large hail and damaging winds look to be the biggest threats but we can`t rule out one or two tornadoes over southern Delmarva where there will be more in the way of surface instability.