Here are the 6z GEFS member tracks with Tammy's 12z position circled. Most of the members are too far NE. The ones that are close generally continue WNW for longer and pass near Martinique and Guadeloupe, rather than turning NW sooner and just missing the northern Leeward Islands pic.twitter.com/SSKrW7CK5r

— Yaakov Cantor (@yconsor) October 19, 2023