Bottom line - I wouldn't count on a dead late-season Carib. like we frequently see in Nino years. The persistent low-shear pattern doesn't look to be ending anytime soon and w/ below normal MSLP forecast there into early Oct, eventually a TC will probably find a favorable window. pic.twitter.com/hM3ojeuW4W

— Yaakov Cantor (@yconsor) September 12, 2023