This is truly uncharted territory, as the other four El Nino events with 30+ ACE by end of Aug (1899, 1969, 1976, 2004) were all much weaker Ninos than 2023. Each saw Jul-Sep ONI between 0.5-0.6, while this year is likely to be in the 1.1-1.4 range

— Yaakov Cantor (@yconsor) August 28, 2023