I think it's interesting to note that the few years in the ECMWF seasonal hindcast period in which its Jun/Jul ACE forecast was as active as this year's forecast (1999, 2005, 2008, 2010) were each significantly above the long-term normal (1951-2020 median of 97) in terms of ACE.

— Yaakov Cantor (@yconsor) August 7, 2023