In its Aug forecast, The ECMWF has forecast normal to below normal hurricanes *every single year* since 2012 (normal Sep onward is 4.5)! It also has had a low ACE since 2012, with obs. ACE above forecast in 8 years, at forecast in one and below forecast in two (2013 and 2022) pic.twitter.com/bcROLl645J

— Yaakov Cantor (@yconsor) August 7, 2023