Finally, this paper (Tippett et. al 2020) "Found that forecasts initialized April–June (AMJ) have “excessive momentum” in the sense that the forecast Niño 3.4 tendency is more likely to be a continuation of the prior observed conditions than it should be": https://t.co/F73RK7HL7o

— Yaakov Cantor (@yconsor) May 11, 2023