Per Fink/Schrage's research, the expected wet Sahel this year could help "tip the scales" toward a normal to more active than normal hurr. season. Note the expected marginal conditions for Atl. hurr. this Aug-Oct (warm ENSO 1.2, likely above-normal wind shear in parts of MDR)

— Yaakov Cantor (@yconsor) May 4, 2023