Modeling this morning appears to be a good example of GEFS short-term weak ridge bias. Note how much weaker the GEFS is with the ridge from the Bay of Campeche to the Caribbean to north of Hispaniola, when compared with European/Canadian ensembles. And this is only 3.5 days out! pic.twitter.com/sLctv2xVZR

— Yaakov Cantor (@yconsor) October 2, 2022